Who has in his hands the re-election of Lula?

Brazil: Reelecting the President
An alliance with Buarque will give Lula the majority needed to win
Alfredo Ascanio (askain)

Published 2006-10-04 13:42 (KST)

The second round of elections in Brazil may be quarreled over as recently happened in Mexico. But if Luiz Inacio Lulá da Silva obtained 48.63 percent of the votes and Cristovam Buarque 2.65 percent, then an alliance between them would give Lula 51.28 percent, which would be sufficient for him to be reelected president of Brazil.

Heloisa Helena will not give her votes (6.85 percent) to Lula for two basic reasons: (1) because she was expelled from Lulá's Workers' Party (PT), and (2) because being the alternative candidate for the left (to Lulá), she would not be able to negotiate with Geraldo Alckmin, who is considered a social democrat of the Brazilian right.

Buarque was first the rector of the University of Brasilia, then governor of the capital (Federal District), and finally a minister under Lula. He was disappointed with Lula's poor educational policies and other projects and left the PT. His Democratic Labor Party can negotiate with his 2.65 percent, but surely with the condition that his educational projects and other projects be accepted finally by Lulá's party.

I began to analyze all the books published by Buarque, and I am going to intersperse some concepts and ideas that this economist and politician formed in one of the better French universities in the '90s.

I will begin by citing the main ideas from The Revolution of the Priorities (technical modernity and ethical modernity). Buarque says that although a stable distribution between salaries and business benefits is a good aspiration, the invisible hand of the market cannot solve the high priority global problem of poverty.

Civil society's main role is its own future development so that the population can be consolidated as a nation with its own ethical values (a homogeneous assembly of principles and of interests). The three essential values for progress in Brazil are (1) democracy with sovereignty, (2) social integration and (3) raising the quality of life for all.

In The Collapse of the Brazilian Modernity, Buarque asked why economic growth has not been able to solve the problem of poverty?

Even after continuous economic growth, the country is faced with a well-known truth, that for every 1,000 Brazilians born, barely 90 of them transcend the difficulties of their situation and are able to survive and be educated to the second degree of grade school. Besides, almost 100 million people live in poverty. And 20 million of them are indigent people.

The country has privileged an archaic modernism that must be changed, charged with new objectives. The future depends on a population that is healthy, competent and content.

In The Revolution of the Left and the Invention of Brazil, Buarque recalls that Brazil lives with a "social apartheid" that excludes 100 million people from the economy without even the possibility of becoming true citizens:

Due to the disorder of progress, economic growth is also impacting the natural middle and producing an ecological disaster that will not permit sustainable progress.

Brazil is considered one of the 12 gifted megadiverse countries of the world. Together, these countries shelter 70 percent of the total biodiversity of the planet. Nevertheless, 398 species of low terrestrial animals exist on the brink of extinction in Brazil, among them mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and insects, without counting the aquatic fauna, threatened by the construction of dams and by the pollution of rivers and coastal areas.

Besides, the indicator on the investment in research and development shows a fall in the volume of resources for the federal government from 1996 (3.6 billion reais) to 2002 (2.9 billion reais).

Brazil should invest almost 7.2 trillion reais (U.S.$2.7 billion dollars), the equivalent total gross domestic product of more than four years, to reach in 2020 the standard of living of the industrial countries. But this it is not being done.

Brazil has to generate more than 56 million new jobs in the next 15 years, that is to say 3.5 million each year, in this country of 182 million inhabitants. But the government believes this is an impossible task.

Without hardly any social investment, Brazil runs the risk of having worse socioeconomic conditions in 15 years than at the present, aggravating the difficulties of governing the country.

If the goal is to arrive at 2020 with the standard of living of rich countries like the Republic of Korea or the most advanced countries of Europe, it will be necessary to invest per year 27.6 percent of the gross domestic product.

With an annual investment of only 14.5 percent the present conditions of intermediate countries would be reached, like Greece.

What is required is a "drastic change" in present policies.

These reflections of Buarque serve to show his political thinking. As a presidential candidate, he was supported only by a little more than two million voters (2.65 percent), but that would be enough to allow Lula to continue being president.

In politics, to govern without problems, one needs dialogue and alliances. We'll see what Oct. 29 brings.

©2006 OhmyNews
Other articles by reporter Alfredo Ascanio

Quién tiene en sus manos la re-elección de Lula?
Cristovam Buarque puede hacer que Lula pase la frontera del 51%

La próxima segunda vuelta de las elecciones en Brasil serán tan reñidas como lo que sucedió recientemente en México. Si Lula obtuvo 48,63% de los votos y Cristovam Buarque el 2,65%, entonces esa alianza sumaría el 51,28%, porcentaje suficiente para que Luiz Lula Da Silva sea reelegido presidente de Brasil.

Ya se sabe que Heloísa Helena no aceptará darle a Lula su porcentaje de votos igual al 6,85% , por dos razones básicas: a) porque ella fue expulsada del partido de los trabajadores (PT), y b) porque siendo la opción de la izquierda (PSOL) no podría negociar con Alckmin que sería considerado un voto social demócrata de la derecha brasilera.

Pero Buarque, que primero fue el Rector de la Universidad de Brasilia y luego Gobernador de esa capital y Senador por el partido de Lula, para militar posteriormente en el PT, desilusionado de la pobre política educativa de Lula, entonces es evidente que su partido pueda negociar su 2,65% de sus votos, pero seguramente con la condición de que su proyecto educativo para los excluidos sociales, sea aceptado definitivamente por el partido de los trabajadores.

Yo me puse a analizar todos los libros publicados por Buarque, que conservo en mi biblioteca privada, y de esta lectura voy a intercalar algunos conceptos e ideas que este economista y político formado en una de las mejores universidades francesas, había formulado en la década de los noventa y en año 2000, sin presentar lo que dijo en su primera novela del año 1981 cuando relataba allí la resurrección del General Sánchez.

Comencemos pues con una cita extraídas de su libro : La Revolución de las Prioridades (la modernidad técnica y la modernidad ética):

“A procura de uma saída não se dará apenas por uma melhor distribuição da renda, entre salários e lucros, deixando ao mercado a solução de problemas públicos globais, através de uma revolução nas prioridades.”

En su libro : El colapso de la Modernidad Brasileira, Buarque dice lo siguiente:

“Alguns,comprometidos com a modernidade arcaica que implantaram, continuam defendo os mesmos objetivos, mudando agora os meios. Propõem mudar as técnicas para não mudar a sociedade. Fazem condomínios, para não fazer a igualdade que evitaria a violência.”

Más tarde en : La Revolución de la Izquierda y la invención del Brasil, Buarque recuerda lo siguiente:

“O Brasil vive um apartheid social, que mantém 60 milhões de pessoas alijadas do consumo, excluídas da economia e, na práctica, da cidadania”


En otro libro: El desorden del progreso, Buarque se angustiaba al decir:

“Durante a década de 70, cada vez que sobrevoava uma das grandes cidades da América Latina, como México e São Paulo, tinha a mesma sensação que alguns físicos descreveram depois de sobrevoar Hiroshima e Nagasaki, no final de 1945. Frustração ,indignação e parte da responsabilidade com a desastre ecológico que o desenvolvimento econômico estava provocando.”

Estas cuatro citas sirven para conocer el pensamiento político de un candidato presidencial ilustrado, que aunque sólo fue apoyado por un poco más de dos millones de electores (el 2,65% de los votos totales), podría orientar la balanza del candidato Lula hacia el lado en que podría seguir siendo presidente.

Esperemos entonces el día 29 de octubre próximo y vamos a ver si esta hipótesis se concreta o por el contrario no fue la que podíamos esperar.