sábado, enero 30, 2010
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Robert F. Kennedy vs. Barak Obama
Robert F. Kennedy vs. Barak Obama
Different politicians but similar lessons
Alfredo Ascanio (askain)
Published 2009-07-04 16:03 (KST)
In his first book in November 1967, "To Seek A Newer World", Robert F. Kennedy announced his candidacy for the Presidency of the United States.
He announced, “I do not run for the Presidency merely to oppose any man, but to propose new policies. I run because I am convinced that this country is on a perilous course and because I have such strong feelings about what must be done that I am obliged to do all I can.”
This young politician wanted to be president to close the gaps between black and white, rich and poor, young and old and to stand for hope instead of despair, for the reconciliation of men instead of the growing risk of world war.
Today Obama said the same thing. Intentions are the same. But what are the differences? This is the subject of this article.
First, 1968 is not equal to the context of 2009. Today there is a deep depression like the 1930's. Nevertheless, these are big problems that have claimed Obama's attention.
The two politicians worked in the Senate and the Senate is a place where problems are dealt with as they arise, and attention and effort are devoted to the crisis of the moment. But problems of public finance are different. In the US economy of 40 years ago, over 20 percent of total output was purchased by government budgets and one-third of total income was collected in taxes.
Beyond the budgetary function, public policy influences the course of economic activity through monetary, regulatory, and other devices. But with Obama public enterprise plays a big role, because the crisis demands it that way.
Obama knows that the modern capitalist economy is thus a thoroughly mixed system in which public and private sector interact in a comprehensive fashion. Nevertheless, these are the problems which have most insistently claimed the attention of this president: How to preserve capitalism, but also to control destructive capacity of the unemployment and the crisis of consumption.
And certainly today's president would be asking the following questions:
1) What criteria should be applied when one is judging the economic efficiency of various budgets polices?
2) What are the responses of the private sector to various fiscal measures, such as tax and expenditure changes?
3) What are the social, political, and historical forces that have formed the shape of present fiscal institutions and which determine the formulation of contemporary fiscal policy?
Question one requires setting standards of “good” performance. Corresponding to the analysis of efficient behavior of households and firms in the private sector, this calls for a type of economics, which, in professional jargon, is referred to as “welfare economics” or “normative economics”.
Question two must be asked if the outcome of alternative policies is to be traced. Analyzing the effects of fiscal measures thus involves what has been referred to as “positive” economics (i.e, how firms and consumers will respond to economic changes and testing such predictions empirically).
Question three likewise involves a “positive” approach, asking why the fiscal behavior of governments is what it is. This not only is a matter of economics but also includes a wide range of historical, political, and social factors. How do interest groups try to affect the fiscal policies, and how do legislators respond to pressure? How are the fiscal preferences of voters determined by their income and social and demographic characteristics, and how does the political process, in fact, serve to reflect their preferences?
The concerns of Robert F. Kennedy included racial injustice and improving the condition of workers. The slums or the inner city and the sub-employment rate (an average of 35 percent) and the possibilities of a self-government because democracy, in any active sense, begins and ends in communities small enough for their members to meet face to face.
The alliance for progress or vast cooperative effort, unparalleled in magnitude and nobility of purpose, to satisfy the basic needs of the American people for homes, work, health and schools; a plan to transform the 1960s into a historic decade of democratic progress.
At that time there were problem with China and nuclear weapons and today Iran and North Korea are the problems.
South Vietnam and another kind of war-new in its intensity, ancient in its origin-war by guerrillas, subversives, insurgents, assassins, war by ambush instead of by combat; by infiltration instead of aggression, seeking victory by eroding and exhausting the enemy instead of engaging him. A lesson, which carries with it some basic truths, said Kennedy.
First, that a total military victory is not within sight or around the corner.
Second, that the pursuit of such a victory us not necessary to our national interest and is even damaging that interest.
Third, that the progress we have claimed toward increasing our control over the country and the security of the population is largely illusory.
Fourth, that the central battle in this war cannot be measured by body counts or bomb damage, but by the extent to which the people of South Vietnam act on a sense of common purpose and hope with those that govern them.
Fifth, that the current regime in Saigon is unwilling or incapable of being an effective ally in the war against the Communists.
Sixth, that a political compromise is not just the best path to peace, but the only path, and we must show as much willingness to risk some of our prestige for peace as to risk the lives of young men in war. And also that the best way to save our most precious stake in Vietnam -- the lives of our soldiers -- is to stop the enlargement of the war, and that the best way to end casualties is to end the war.
Although the war in Vietnam was different from today in Iraq and Afghanistan, lessons are the same and this similar problems has to be resolved by the two politicians: Kennedy and Obama.
©2009 OhmyNews
Other articles by reporter Alfredo Ascanio
Different politicians but similar lessons
Alfredo Ascanio (askain)
Published 2009-07-04 16:03 (KST)
In his first book in November 1967, "To Seek A Newer World", Robert F. Kennedy announced his candidacy for the Presidency of the United States.
He announced, “I do not run for the Presidency merely to oppose any man, but to propose new policies. I run because I am convinced that this country is on a perilous course and because I have such strong feelings about what must be done that I am obliged to do all I can.”
This young politician wanted to be president to close the gaps between black and white, rich and poor, young and old and to stand for hope instead of despair, for the reconciliation of men instead of the growing risk of world war.
Today Obama said the same thing. Intentions are the same. But what are the differences? This is the subject of this article.
First, 1968 is not equal to the context of 2009. Today there is a deep depression like the 1930's. Nevertheless, these are big problems that have claimed Obama's attention.
The two politicians worked in the Senate and the Senate is a place where problems are dealt with as they arise, and attention and effort are devoted to the crisis of the moment. But problems of public finance are different. In the US economy of 40 years ago, over 20 percent of total output was purchased by government budgets and one-third of total income was collected in taxes.
Beyond the budgetary function, public policy influences the course of economic activity through monetary, regulatory, and other devices. But with Obama public enterprise plays a big role, because the crisis demands it that way.
Obama knows that the modern capitalist economy is thus a thoroughly mixed system in which public and private sector interact in a comprehensive fashion. Nevertheless, these are the problems which have most insistently claimed the attention of this president: How to preserve capitalism, but also to control destructive capacity of the unemployment and the crisis of consumption.
And certainly today's president would be asking the following questions:
1) What criteria should be applied when one is judging the economic efficiency of various budgets polices?
2) What are the responses of the private sector to various fiscal measures, such as tax and expenditure changes?
3) What are the social, political, and historical forces that have formed the shape of present fiscal institutions and which determine the formulation of contemporary fiscal policy?
Question one requires setting standards of “good” performance. Corresponding to the analysis of efficient behavior of households and firms in the private sector, this calls for a type of economics, which, in professional jargon, is referred to as “welfare economics” or “normative economics”.
Question two must be asked if the outcome of alternative policies is to be traced. Analyzing the effects of fiscal measures thus involves what has been referred to as “positive” economics (i.e, how firms and consumers will respond to economic changes and testing such predictions empirically).
Question three likewise involves a “positive” approach, asking why the fiscal behavior of governments is what it is. This not only is a matter of economics but also includes a wide range of historical, political, and social factors. How do interest groups try to affect the fiscal policies, and how do legislators respond to pressure? How are the fiscal preferences of voters determined by their income and social and demographic characteristics, and how does the political process, in fact, serve to reflect their preferences?
The concerns of Robert F. Kennedy included racial injustice and improving the condition of workers. The slums or the inner city and the sub-employment rate (an average of 35 percent) and the possibilities of a self-government because democracy, in any active sense, begins and ends in communities small enough for their members to meet face to face.
The alliance for progress or vast cooperative effort, unparalleled in magnitude and nobility of purpose, to satisfy the basic needs of the American people for homes, work, health and schools; a plan to transform the 1960s into a historic decade of democratic progress.
At that time there were problem with China and nuclear weapons and today Iran and North Korea are the problems.
South Vietnam and another kind of war-new in its intensity, ancient in its origin-war by guerrillas, subversives, insurgents, assassins, war by ambush instead of by combat; by infiltration instead of aggression, seeking victory by eroding and exhausting the enemy instead of engaging him. A lesson, which carries with it some basic truths, said Kennedy.
First, that a total military victory is not within sight or around the corner.
Second, that the pursuit of such a victory us not necessary to our national interest and is even damaging that interest.
Third, that the progress we have claimed toward increasing our control over the country and the security of the population is largely illusory.
Fourth, that the central battle in this war cannot be measured by body counts or bomb damage, but by the extent to which the people of South Vietnam act on a sense of common purpose and hope with those that govern them.
Fifth, that the current regime in Saigon is unwilling or incapable of being an effective ally in the war against the Communists.
Sixth, that a political compromise is not just the best path to peace, but the only path, and we must show as much willingness to risk some of our prestige for peace as to risk the lives of young men in war. And also that the best way to save our most precious stake in Vietnam -- the lives of our soldiers -- is to stop the enlargement of the war, and that the best way to end casualties is to end the war.
Although the war in Vietnam was different from today in Iraq and Afghanistan, lessons are the same and this similar problems has to be resolved by the two politicians: Kennedy and Obama.
©2009 OhmyNews
Other articles by reporter Alfredo Ascanio
TEXAS: RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES
Texas is the 2nd most popular state for retirement so it is no wonder there are many great Texas retirement communities. Low costs, plenty of space, warm weather, exciting cities, lively college towns, charming small towns, and hundreds of interesting active adult communities are just some of the reasons why. Having no state income tax is another big plus. The reviews on this site can help you narrow your choice with important information about the best Texas retirement towns.
Texas, the Lone Star state, had an estimated 24 million people in 2007 and is growing very fast. Texas has friendly people and a slower pace of life that is easy to get used to. Austin is the capital city; there are several other large cities including Dallas, San Antonio, and Houston. There are also many nice small towns and rural areas. The Wikipedia entry for Texas has more interesting facts.
Texas Climate
The Texas climate is humid-sub tropical, strongly influenced by the Gulf of Mexico. Summers are hot and humid with frequent thunderstorms. Winters are mild, particularly in southern Texas.
Economy and Home Prices in Texas
Texas's per capita income at $23,294 is near the average of all states. Median home prices tend to be less expensive than in rest of the U.S., although in choice suburbs of big cities like Houston and Dallas the prices can be quite high.
The median home value state-wide was $113,800 in 2007, almost $70,000 below the national average. In the Austin-Round Rock area homes sold in 2009's 1st quarter for a median $182,300; the cost of living index there is 89 (national index is 100). In San Antonio, the median home went for $148,300 and the cost of living index is 81. Home prices in Texas have been much more stable than in the rest of the country in 2008-2009, they have hardly declined at all.
Texas Taxes
Texas has no income tax. State sales tax is 6.25%. Total tax burden in Houston is a very low 6.6% compared to the median rate for large U.S. cities. The state is ranked by the Tax Foundation as having the 43rd highest total state/local tax burden of the 50 states. Texas recently lowered property taxes in exchange for iincreasing taxes on cigarette and some business activities.State of Texas Taxation website.
Best retirement communities in Texas
Texas has any number of "best retirement towns" popular with active adults over 55. Austin is a livable city that enjoys the excitement of being host to the thriving University of Texas. San Antonio and its riverfront walk is a great town for retirement, attracting many people from the military. Corpus Christi, The Woodlands, and the Rio Grande Valley are all places that show up at the top of many "100 best places to retire" lists.
List of Texas Certified Retirement Communities
The Texas certified retirement community program is run by the Texas Department of Agriculture. There are 14 communities on the Texas list of certified retirement communities as of July, 2008: some of the certified retirement communities are Lufkin, Athens, Nacogdoches, Winnsboro, Cuero, Longview, St. Augustine County,Odessa, Palestine, Panola County, Shelby County, and Duncanville - these communities have gone through a thorough screening process to make sure they are desirable retirement communities.
HOUSTON PANORAMICO
Texas, the Lone Star state, had an estimated 24 million people in 2007 and is growing very fast. Texas has friendly people and a slower pace of life that is easy to get used to. Austin is the capital city; there are several other large cities including Dallas, San Antonio, and Houston. There are also many nice small towns and rural areas. The Wikipedia entry for Texas has more interesting facts.
Texas Climate
The Texas climate is humid-sub tropical, strongly influenced by the Gulf of Mexico. Summers are hot and humid with frequent thunderstorms. Winters are mild, particularly in southern Texas.
Economy and Home Prices in Texas
Texas's per capita income at $23,294 is near the average of all states. Median home prices tend to be less expensive than in rest of the U.S., although in choice suburbs of big cities like Houston and Dallas the prices can be quite high.
The median home value state-wide was $113,800 in 2007, almost $70,000 below the national average. In the Austin-Round Rock area homes sold in 2009's 1st quarter for a median $182,300; the cost of living index there is 89 (national index is 100). In San Antonio, the median home went for $148,300 and the cost of living index is 81. Home prices in Texas have been much more stable than in the rest of the country in 2008-2009, they have hardly declined at all.
Texas Taxes
Texas has no income tax. State sales tax is 6.25%. Total tax burden in Houston is a very low 6.6% compared to the median rate for large U.S. cities. The state is ranked by the Tax Foundation as having the 43rd highest total state/local tax burden of the 50 states. Texas recently lowered property taxes in exchange for iincreasing taxes on cigarette and some business activities.State of Texas Taxation website.
Best retirement communities in Texas
Texas has any number of "best retirement towns" popular with active adults over 55. Austin is a livable city that enjoys the excitement of being host to the thriving University of Texas. San Antonio and its riverfront walk is a great town for retirement, attracting many people from the military. Corpus Christi, The Woodlands, and the Rio Grande Valley are all places that show up at the top of many "100 best places to retire" lists.
List of Texas Certified Retirement Communities
The Texas certified retirement community program is run by the Texas Department of Agriculture. There are 14 communities on the Texas list of certified retirement communities as of July, 2008: some of the certified retirement communities are Lufkin, Athens, Nacogdoches, Winnsboro, Cuero, Longview, St. Augustine County,Odessa, Palestine, Panola County, Shelby County, and Duncanville - these communities have gone through a thorough screening process to make sure they are desirable retirement communities.
viernes, enero 29, 2010
Reflexiones de Jackson Diehl
Por Jackson Diehl
Lunes, 25 de enero 2010
El socialismo del siglo XXI de Hugo Chávez ha sido derrotado y va rumbo al colapso”, sostiene Jackson Diehl en un artículo publicado el lunes en The Washington Post.
Mientras el mundo se concentraba en la crisis en Haití, América Latina, silenciosamente, “vivió un punto de inflexión en el conflicto ideológico que polarizó la región y que paralizó la diplomacia estadounidense durante la última década”, agrega la nota.
Señala el diario estadounidense que durante las últimas dos semanas, justo antes y después del terremoto en Haití, Chávez se vio forzado a devaluar la moneda venezolana, establecer y luego suspender cortes de electricidad masivos en la capital de Venezuela, “mientras el país era golpeado por la recesión, una inflación de dos dígitos y el posible colapso del sistema eléctrico nacional”.
En el ámbito internacional, en Honduras, “una crisis de siete meses desencadenada por el intento de un protegido de Chávez (Manuel Zelaya) de romper el orden constitucional terminó silenciosamente”, con un acuerdo que le enviará al exilio, mientras un político moderado elegido democráticamente asumirá la presidencia.
Por último, pero no menos importante, en las elecciones presidenciales de Chile, la economía más exitosa de la región, se produjo la primera victoria de un candidato de la derecha desde que el dictador Augusto Pinochet fuera depuesto hace dos décadas. El presidente electo, Sebastián Piñera, un empresario y defensor del libre mercado, ya ha hecho algo que ningún dirigente chileno ni la mayoría de los países latinoamericanos ha estado dispuesto a hacer en los últimos años: confrontar a Chávez.
Venezuela “no es una democracia”, dijo Piñera durante su campaña. “Dos grandes modelos se han formado en América Latina: uno está encabezado por gente como Hugo Chávez en Venezuela, (Fidel) Castro en Cuba y (Daniel) Ortega en Nicaragua… Definitivamente, creo que el segundo modelo es mejor para Chile. Y ese es el modelo que vamos a seguir: la democracia, el estado de derecho, la libertad de expresión, la alternabilidad del poder sin el caudillismo”, señaló en su momento Piñera, según The Washington Post.
Piñera sólo estaba diciendo lo obvio, pero dijo más de lo que su predecesora socialista, Michelle Bachelet, o el mandatario brasileño Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ha estado dispuesto a decir abiertamente. Ese silencio maniató los gobiernos de George W. Bush y Barack Obama, quienes sentían, con razón o sin ella, que no debían ser los únicos en señalar el ataque de Chávez contra la democracia. “Piñera ya ha facilitado a Washington una oportunidad para denunciar las violaciones de derechos humanos en Venezuela”, agrega el artículo.
Las declaraciones de Piñera se producen en un momento en que “Chávez ya se está recuperando de golpes diplomáticos, siendo Honduras uno de ellos”. Si bien Honduras es un país pequeño, la lucha de poder entre la élite política establecida y el acólito Chávez, Manuel Zelaya, se convirtió en una batalla regional entre partidarios y opositores de la izquierda chavista, con Brasil y otras democracias de izquierda en el medio.
“El resultado es una victoria para Estados Unidos, que fue prácticamente el único país que apoyó la elección democrática que puso fin al impasse. Honduras es el final de la cruzada de Chávez para exportar su revolución a otros países. Bolivia y Nicaragua seguirán siendo sus únicos aliados seguros”, afirma Diehl.
Lula, cuya tolerancia hacia Chávez ha empañado su intento por convertirse en un estadista de peso mundial, dejará su cargo a finales de este año y el candidato de su partido es superado en las encuestas por un aspirante presidencial más conservador.
La tragedia de Haití no hace más que profundizar el hoyo de Chávez. Frente a los ojos del mundo, Estados Unidos está dirigiendo una operación humanitaria masiva y los haitianos literalmente aclaman la llegada de los infantes de marina estadounidenses. “Chávez no tiene manera de conciliar estas imágenes con el mensaje central de su propaganda a los latinoamericanos, según el cual EEUU es un ‘imperio’ y una fuerza maligna en la región”.
Además, Chávez enfrenta una crisis internamente. A pesar de la recuperación de los precios del petróleo, la economía venezolana atraviesa una profunda recesión y sigue hundiéndose aun cuando el resto de América Latina se recupera.
Los economistas estiman que la inflación podría elevarse al 35% % en los próximos meses. Mientras tanto, debido a una sequía, Venezuela enfrenta la amenaza de cierre de la Central Hidroeléctrica que abastece el 70% de la electricidad en el país.
martes, enero 26, 2010
[Opinion] Venezuela in 2010
[Opinion] Venezuela in 2010
Economic problems and their implications for upcoming elections
Alfredo Ascanio (askain)
Published 2010-01-26 12:11 (KST)
By the end of 2010, inflation in Venezuela will reach 45 percent. Who is harmed and who benefits from this mega-devaluation?
It most certainly favors the government, because has doubled its revenue in bolivars, of which 50% will be for PDVSA (Petroleos de Venezuela) to cover its financial deficit. But, to the population, this devaluation is terribly damaging.
The Central bank's operational reserves are just $22 billion, or 56% of the value of imports.
What happened in the past 10 years in relation to industrial activity in Venezuela? In 1998 this sector contributed 18 percent of GDP, and now represents less than 10 percent, because over 4,000 small and medium businesses have closed.
Why have they disappeared? Because Chavez's government is not interested in the private sector of the economy and has established several disastrous policies as: (1) labor immobility since 2001, (2) change control with 7 years of existence, (3) expropriation of industrial companies to the State.
The sale of oil abroad has not helped either. In 2009 $57.6 billion of oil was sold, but the tragedy is that foreign sales of no oil were, in 2009, to just 2.0 billion, and before the Chavez government were much more than 7 billion, then the reduction has been dramatic: from 5 billion. And the imports? They are only 39 billion or it has fallen by 22% over the 2.009.
In Venezuela there are 7 million people unemployed or informally employed. There are also huge numbers of workers receiving minimum wage: 3 million formal employees and 1.4 million pensioners.
The current minimum wage is 967.5 bolivar a month and it is estimated that by March of 2010 will be is 1064.25 per month and the month of September will be 1223.89. This means that the average increase will be only 26.5 percent.
If the average inflation in 2010 were about 35 percent, this would mean a real-terms wage loss for those already making the bare minimum.
Political Implications
How should one begin to forecast the election to the Legislature (set for the month of September), provided that there is not a great fraud? A recent survey found that, from the people who vote, the segment of the Ni-Ni (the undecided vote) is about 52 percent.
The Ni-Ni could vote for the opposition if they offer a new government program to combat insecurity and a new program to ensure improved health, housing and food (the social agenda).
The majority of the Ni-Ni are women (55 percent), and 52 percent belong to the lower social classes, are living in urban areas, and are under 35.
About 15 percent of the Ni-Ni blame Chavez for the country's problems, but this is rising and may reach 30 percent due to devaluation, lack of electricity and water and also because in this past year year 14,500 people have been killed.
The conflict for the opposition is: how to capitalize on the Ni-Ni discontent and convert it into votes for the election of deputies to the Legislative Assembly to come?
In 2006 66 percent of the NI-Ni voted for Chavez's reelection.
appears only in my BLOG (http://askain.blogspot.com)
©2010 OhmyNews
Other articles by reporter Alfredo Ascanio
SOCIAL NETWORKING
Arriba he colocado lo que se llama SOCIAL NETWORKING un video que explica este tema de una manera sencilla (esta en idioma inglés).
I have placed a video of Social NetWorking; in that link is explained this matter in a way summarized
I have placed a video of Social NetWorking; in that link is explained this matter in a way summarized
domingo, enero 24, 2010
VENEZUELA: THE END OF THE YEAR 2.010
VENEZUELA: THE END OF THE YEAR 2.010
Problems and many problems
Inflation at the end of the year 2010 will be 45% . The weighted devaluation of the Bolivar Fuerte is 45%. The products affected by the devaluation: 70%.
Who benefits and harms the mega devaluation? It favors the government because has doubled its revenue in bolivars, of which 50% will be for PDVSA (Petroleos de Venezuela) to cover its financial deficit. The population is terribly damaging.
The Central Bank's operational reserves are just 22 billion dollars or 56% of the value of imports.
What happened in the past 10 years in relation to industrial activity in Venezuela? In 1998 this sector contributed with 18% to GDP and now only less than 10%, because over 4 thousand small and medium businesses have closed, meaning that there are only 7,000 companies in the country of 11,000 existed.
And why have disappeared? because Chavez's communist government is not interested in the private sector of the economy and has established several disastrous policies as: (1) labor immobility since 2001, (2) change control with 7 years of existence, (3) Expropriation of industrial companies or pass them to the State.
The oil sales abroad as they have behaved? In the year 2009 was 57.6 billion dollars, but the tragedy is that foreign sales of no oil were, in 2009, to just 2.0 billion, and before the Chavez government were much more than 7 billion, then the reduction has been dramatic: from 5 billion. And the imports? They are only 39 billion or it has fallen by 22% over the 2.009.
In Venezuela there are 7 million people unemployed or informally employed.The workers receiving the minimum wage (3 million formal employees and 1.4 million pensioners).
The current minimum wage is 967.5 bolivar a month and it is estimated that by March of 2010 will be is 1064.25 per month and the month of September will be 1223.89. This means that the average increase will be only 26.5%.
If the average inflation in 2010 were located in 35% then the real wage loss for those receiving the minimum wage is 10%, that is, that the policy will not trigger the minimum wage and therefore consumption will stagflation ( recession with inflation).
The weighted average exchange rate (double change) based on the change of 2.60 (which represents 38%) and the change of 4.30 (which represents 62%), is 3.66 bolivars per dollar, then the 1,064 bolivares correspond to $ 291 per month minimum salary and for September is equal to: $ 334 per month.With the rate of 2.15 bolívares by previous dollar to the devaluation, the original salary (without the recent increase) equalled to some US$450.
The population by 59% want more security, as 37% more health and feeding programs.
How to forecast the election to the Legislature(for the month of September) provided that there be not a great fraud?.The recent surveys say that: apart from the people who vote, the segment of the Ni-Ni which is a heterogeneous segment (the undecided vote ) represent or correspond to 52% of those voting, then that is a high percentage .
This group called NI-Ni could vote for the opposition if they offer a new government program to combat insecurity and a new program to ensure improved health, housing and food (the social agenda).
For the year 2003 the voters were: Chavistas 25%, Ni-Ni 40% and opposition 35%. This course has changed since the year 2009 were Ni-Ni 52% , 24% and 24% pro-Chavez and opposition. In October 2009 these percentage relations were: 20% Chavistas and 80% were from the opposition and Ni-Ni (28% and 52%).
For the next election will be: NI-NI 52% and 48% allocated to the Chavez supporters and the opposition (20% and 28%)
The majority ie the Ni-Ni are women (by 55%), and 52% belong to social classes humble or D and E strata, living in urban areas and who are under age 35.
If the opposition leaders do not inspire confidence into the Ni-Ni segment, then the election of the democrats may be questioned.
The 33% of total NI-NI, at the end of 2009, noted that the situation in the country was fair or poor, but there is a tendency of elevation of the percentage of Ni-Ni discontented.
Still only 15% of the Ni-Ni Chavez blames the country's problems, but this is rising and may reach 30% due to devaluation, lack of electricity and water and also because in a year 14,500 people have been killed.
the conflict for the opposition is: how to capitalize on the NI-NI discontent and convert it into votes for the election of deputies to the Legislative Assembly to come? The market predictions are voters: 52% Ni-Ni, 24% pro-Chavez, 19% opposed and 5% are not identified.
In 2006 66% of the NI-Ni voted for Chavez's reelection and 34% by the opposition. It is possible that these percentages are altered by this choice.
Of the new leaders at this time which is best placed is Henrique Capriles Radonski (Governor of Miranda State) with a 35% acceptance that is to say a very low percentage.
If you perform a linear correlation between the percentages for Chavistas with the percentages for the NI-Ni, in order to determine the data at end of January of 2010, this relationship is as follows:
Y = 0.260496 * X + 29.7146
With a correlation coefficient of 39% and a coefficient of determination of 13%. Which means that the behavior of the Ni-NI does not depend solely on the behavior in percentage of Chavez, but other unknown variables.
In any case, if that relationship is resolved, assuming that the Ni-Ni are equal to 52% by the end of January 2010, Chavistas then be placed in a 43%.
If half of these Ni-Ni vote for Chavez Chavismo be placed in 64% and if only 30% of the NI-Ni vote for Chavez then Chavismo 0btener achieved 59%. The % of the vote Chavistas depends on the Ni-Ni.
Consider now the equation of the relationship between percentage of opposition to the percentages of the Ni-Ni:
Y = - 0.407407 * X + 49.11
Y = - 0.407 x 49% + 49.11
Y = -19.84 + 49.11
Y = 29,27%
This equation tells us that when the Ni-Ni 49%, then the opposition would equal 29.3%.
The lower the percentage of the NI-Ni, the higher the percentage of the opposition. The negative sign before the value of 0.407, indicating that with increasing the % of the Ni-Ni then decreases oposicion. If % of the percentage of Ni-Ni is zero, meaning that this electoral phenomenon did not exist, then the % of the opposition were 49%.
However the correlation coefficient is very low, 30%, which means that this relationship is not perfect because there are other variables to consider, the matter is that these other variables are unknown.
If the opposition is maintained at 20%, then the NI-NI are placed at 49%. If half of the Ni-Ni vote for the opposition it would only 45% of the votes or 35% of the vote if the Ni-Ni only granted the 30% of their votes to the opposition.
Problems and many problems
Inflation at the end of the year 2010 will be 45% . The weighted devaluation of the Bolivar Fuerte is 45%. The products affected by the devaluation: 70%.
Who benefits and harms the mega devaluation? It favors the government because has doubled its revenue in bolivars, of which 50% will be for PDVSA (Petroleos de Venezuela) to cover its financial deficit. The population is terribly damaging.
The Central Bank's operational reserves are just 22 billion dollars or 56% of the value of imports.
What happened in the past 10 years in relation to industrial activity in Venezuela? In 1998 this sector contributed with 18% to GDP and now only less than 10%, because over 4 thousand small and medium businesses have closed, meaning that there are only 7,000 companies in the country of 11,000 existed.
And why have disappeared? because Chavez's communist government is not interested in the private sector of the economy and has established several disastrous policies as: (1) labor immobility since 2001, (2) change control with 7 years of existence, (3) Expropriation of industrial companies or pass them to the State.
The oil sales abroad as they have behaved? In the year 2009 was 57.6 billion dollars, but the tragedy is that foreign sales of no oil were, in 2009, to just 2.0 billion, and before the Chavez government were much more than 7 billion, then the reduction has been dramatic: from 5 billion. And the imports? They are only 39 billion or it has fallen by 22% over the 2.009.
In Venezuela there are 7 million people unemployed or informally employed.The workers receiving the minimum wage (3 million formal employees and 1.4 million pensioners).
The current minimum wage is 967.5 bolivar a month and it is estimated that by March of 2010 will be is 1064.25 per month and the month of September will be 1223.89. This means that the average increase will be only 26.5%.
If the average inflation in 2010 were located in 35% then the real wage loss for those receiving the minimum wage is 10%, that is, that the policy will not trigger the minimum wage and therefore consumption will stagflation ( recession with inflation).
The weighted average exchange rate (double change) based on the change of 2.60 (which represents 38%) and the change of 4.30 (which represents 62%), is 3.66 bolivars per dollar, then the 1,064 bolivares correspond to $ 291 per month minimum salary and for September is equal to: $ 334 per month.With the rate of 2.15 bolívares by previous dollar to the devaluation, the original salary (without the recent increase) equalled to some US$450.
The population by 59% want more security, as 37% more health and feeding programs.
How to forecast the election to the Legislature(for the month of September) provided that there be not a great fraud?.The recent surveys say that: apart from the people who vote, the segment of the Ni-Ni which is a heterogeneous segment (the undecided vote ) represent or correspond to 52% of those voting, then that is a high percentage .
This group called NI-Ni could vote for the opposition if they offer a new government program to combat insecurity and a new program to ensure improved health, housing and food (the social agenda).
For the year 2003 the voters were: Chavistas 25%, Ni-Ni 40% and opposition 35%. This course has changed since the year 2009 were Ni-Ni 52% , 24% and 24% pro-Chavez and opposition. In October 2009 these percentage relations were: 20% Chavistas and 80% were from the opposition and Ni-Ni (28% and 52%).
For the next election will be: NI-NI 52% and 48% allocated to the Chavez supporters and the opposition (20% and 28%)
The majority ie the Ni-Ni are women (by 55%), and 52% belong to social classes humble or D and E strata, living in urban areas and who are under age 35.
If the opposition leaders do not inspire confidence into the Ni-Ni segment, then the election of the democrats may be questioned.
The 33% of total NI-NI, at the end of 2009, noted that the situation in the country was fair or poor, but there is a tendency of elevation of the percentage of Ni-Ni discontented.
Still only 15% of the Ni-Ni Chavez blames the country's problems, but this is rising and may reach 30% due to devaluation, lack of electricity and water and also because in a year 14,500 people have been killed.
the conflict for the opposition is: how to capitalize on the NI-NI discontent and convert it into votes for the election of deputies to the Legislative Assembly to come? The market predictions are voters: 52% Ni-Ni, 24% pro-Chavez, 19% opposed and 5% are not identified.
In 2006 66% of the NI-Ni voted for Chavez's reelection and 34% by the opposition. It is possible that these percentages are altered by this choice.
Of the new leaders at this time which is best placed is Henrique Capriles Radonski (Governor of Miranda State) with a 35% acceptance that is to say a very low percentage.
If you perform a linear correlation between the percentages for Chavistas with the percentages for the NI-Ni, in order to determine the data at end of January of 2010, this relationship is as follows:
Y = 0.260496 * X + 29.7146
With a correlation coefficient of 39% and a coefficient of determination of 13%. Which means that the behavior of the Ni-NI does not depend solely on the behavior in percentage of Chavez, but other unknown variables.
In any case, if that relationship is resolved, assuming that the Ni-Ni are equal to 52% by the end of January 2010, Chavistas then be placed in a 43%.
If half of these Ni-Ni vote for Chavez Chavismo be placed in 64% and if only 30% of the NI-Ni vote for Chavez then Chavismo 0btener achieved 59%. The % of the vote Chavistas depends on the Ni-Ni.
Consider now the equation of the relationship between percentage of opposition to the percentages of the Ni-Ni:
Y = - 0.407407 * X + 49.11
Y = - 0.407 x 49% + 49.11
Y = -19.84 + 49.11
Y = 29,27%
This equation tells us that when the Ni-Ni 49%, then the opposition would equal 29.3%.
The lower the percentage of the NI-Ni, the higher the percentage of the opposition. The negative sign before the value of 0.407, indicating that with increasing the % of the Ni-Ni then decreases oposicion. If % of the percentage of Ni-Ni is zero, meaning that this electoral phenomenon did not exist, then the % of the opposition were 49%.
However the correlation coefficient is very low, 30%, which means that this relationship is not perfect because there are other variables to consider, the matter is that these other variables are unknown.
If the opposition is maintained at 20%, then the NI-NI are placed at 49%. If half of the Ni-Ni vote for the opposition it would only 45% of the votes or 35% of the vote if the Ni-Ni only granted the 30% of their votes to the opposition.
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