Phelps challenged the prevailing view in the 1960s that there was a stable, negative relationship between inflation and unemployment, illustrated by the so-called Phillips curve."He recognized that inflation does not only depend on unemployment, but also on the expectations of firms and employees about price and wage increases," the academy said.
The economist also showed that there is a precise equilibrium unemployment rate at which firms raise workers' wages at the same rate as average wages are expected to rise in the economy overall. Those findings have influenced central banks in their interest rate decisions, the academy said.
"He has emphasized that not only the issue of savings and capital formation but also the balance between inflation and unemployment are fundamentally issues about the distribution of welfare over time," the academy said. "Phelps' analyses have had a profound impact on economic theory as well as on macroeconomic policy."
La discutida curva de Phillips que relaciona en forma negativa la inflación y el desempleo, ahora se dice que además del desempleo la inflación depende también de las expectativas de las empresas y de sus empleados acerca del incremento de precios y de sueldos y salarios. Existe un preciso equilibrio entre la tasa de desempleo y el incremento del promedio de los salarios y sueldos en la economía como un todo lo cual impacta la tyasa de interés administrada por el Banco Central en su política monetaria. No sólo los ahorros y la formación del capital (la inversión) son fundamentales para la distribución de la riqueza, sino también es necesario cuidar del balance entre inflación y desempleo.
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