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Red Alert: North Korea: Underground Nuclear Test Reported
October 08, 2006 04 42 GMT

Reports spread Oct. 9 that North Korea tested a nuclear device in the eastern part of North Hamgyong province at 10:35 a.m. local time. China has indicated it did detect a small underground test, although the South Korean military has not raised its alert level. Australian Prime Minister John Howard said his government has confirmed there has been seismic activity from North Korea, although he has not received reports on its magnitude.

The U.S. Geological Survey detected a 4.2 tremor in North Korea, which is smaller than expected and not big enough to make North Korea an unequivocal nuclear power.

If a test did occur, the most immediate U.S. response will likely be a strong condemnation and a call for a U.N. mandate for sanctions. If there is no U.S. military response, Pyongyang will see that as an acceptance of North Korea as a nuclear power.

Many questions remain, however. Even if this were a nuclear test, it is not clear that it was a weapon rather than a device. A nuclear device produces an in-place blast from a mechanism of indeterminate size and structure. A weapon can be fitted on a missile or on an aircraft, and is therefore highly compact and ruggedized.

China's response will be hesitant. China does not seem ready to cut off food or fuel to North Korea, particularly before winter sets in. Beijing has deployed additional troops to the border, but that is to seal the frontier. Beijing Hill be angry, but its primary concern is to keep the North Korean people from spilling across the border into northeast China.

South Korea will, of course, suspend cooperation in Kaesong and Kumkang and Hill probably put its forces on alert. With the drawdown of U.S. troops in South Korea, the South Korean army is now the border patrol. U.S. military units
remaining will have to go on heightened alert and rush Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries to the peninsula. South Korea could deploy high-level officials to North Korea

Japan will work for U.N. for sanctions and Chapter 7 invocation. Japan also Hill heighten its military posture and increase diplomacy with China and South Korea in an attempt to show a united front against North Korea

North Korea will go on high alert nationwide. The military will assume a high-readiness posture, and the North Koreans will proclaim their entry into the nuclear club, using sanctions to tighten control and rally domestic
backing. Pyongyang might quickly invite the International Atomic Energy Agency in to make its nuclear status "legitimate." It will petition internacional bodies to accept the new reality.

In any event, North Korea will view the test as a victory. It will mark the acceptance of the government as a nuclear state. Further negotiations will have to take place under this new reality. North Korea cannot be isolated forever.
North Korea has bet that anything less than a complete military invasion is a capitulation. Pyongyang will press for acceptance, similar to Pakistan. China and South Korea will be key; both desperately want to avoid any military
action. They will end up negotiating with North Korea, finding a way to make the North comply with international regulations.

Postada:
Lo contradictorio de este asunto es que la población de KN se está
muriendo de hambre. Tanto así, que la creciente fuerza que China está
colocando en sus fronteras con KN, no son para defenderse, sino para
impedir las avalanchas de gente que tratan de escaparse del infierno de
hielo que es KN. Terrible, porque cuando el régimen de KN los atrapa en
el regreso, los fusila sin contemplaciones. Entonces, ¿Cómo es que el
gobierno de un país en el que la gente se muere como moscas y al cual la
ONU tiene que ayudar con donaciones masivas de comida, puede darse el
lujo de invertir en el desarrollo de una tecnología cara, i.e. bombas
nucleares y misiles? ¿Cómo puede defenderse a un país en el cual la
transferencia de poder es dinástica: de padre a hijo, a nieto, cual
monarquía?.

No debe pasarse por alto el hecho de que ese gobierno forajido de KN, es
uno de los aliados del régimen del Tte. Cnel.