VENEZUELA: THE END OF THE YEAR 2.010
Problems and many problems
Inflation at the end of the year 2010 will be 45% . The weighted devaluation of the Bolivar Fuerte is 45%. The products affected by the devaluation: 70%.
Who benefits and harms the mega devaluation? It favors the government because has doubled its revenue in bolivars, of which 50% will be for PDVSA (Petroleos de Venezuela) to cover its financial deficit. The population is terribly damaging.
The Central Bank's operational reserves are just 22 billion dollars or 56% of the value of imports.
What happened in the past 10 years in relation to industrial activity in Venezuela? In 1998 this sector contributed with 18% to GDP and now only less than 10%, because over 4 thousand small and medium businesses have closed, meaning that there are only 7,000 companies in the country of 11,000 existed.
And why have disappeared? because Chavez's communist government is not interested in the private sector of the economy and has established several disastrous policies as: (1) labor immobility since 2001, (2) change control with 7 years of existence, (3) Expropriation of industrial companies or pass them to the State.
The oil sales abroad as they have behaved? In the year 2009 was 57.6 billion dollars, but the tragedy is that foreign sales of no oil were, in 2009, to just 2.0 billion, and before the Chavez government were much more than 7 billion, then the reduction has been dramatic: from 5 billion. And the imports? They are only 39 billion or it has fallen by 22% over the 2.009.
In Venezuela there are 7 million people unemployed or informally employed.The workers receiving the minimum wage (3 million formal employees and 1.4 million pensioners).
The current minimum wage is 967.5 bolivar a month and it is estimated that by March of 2010 will be is 1064.25 per month and the month of September will be 1223.89. This means that the average increase will be only 26.5%.
If the average inflation in 2010 were located in 35% then the real wage loss for those receiving the minimum wage is 10%, that is, that the policy will not trigger the minimum wage and therefore consumption will stagflation ( recession with inflation).
The weighted average exchange rate (double change) based on the change of 2.60 (which represents 38%) and the change of 4.30 (which represents 62%), is 3.66 bolivars per dollar, then the 1,064 bolivares correspond to $ 291 per month minimum salary and for September is equal to: $ 334 per month.With the rate of 2.15 bolívares by previous dollar to the devaluation, the original salary (without the recent increase) equalled to some US$450.
The population by 59% want more security, as 37% more health and feeding programs.
How to forecast the election to the Legislature(for the month of September) provided that there be not a great fraud?.The recent surveys say that: apart from the people who vote, the segment of the Ni-Ni which is a heterogeneous segment (the undecided vote ) represent or correspond to 52% of those voting, then that is a high percentage .
This group called NI-Ni could vote for the opposition if they offer a new government program to combat insecurity and a new program to ensure improved health, housing and food (the social agenda).
For the year 2003 the voters were: Chavistas 25%, Ni-Ni 40% and opposition 35%. This course has changed since the year 2009 were Ni-Ni 52% , 24% and 24% pro-Chavez and opposition. In October 2009 these percentage relations were: 20% Chavistas and 80% were from the opposition and Ni-Ni (28% and 52%).
For the next election will be: NI-NI 52% and 48% allocated to the Chavez supporters and the opposition (20% and 28%)
The majority ie the Ni-Ni are women (by 55%), and 52% belong to social classes humble or D and E strata, living in urban areas and who are under age 35.
If the opposition leaders do not inspire confidence into the Ni-Ni segment, then the election of the democrats may be questioned.
The 33% of total NI-NI, at the end of 2009, noted that the situation in the country was fair or poor, but there is a tendency of elevation of the percentage of Ni-Ni discontented.
Still only 15% of the Ni-Ni Chavez blames the country's problems, but this is rising and may reach 30% due to devaluation, lack of electricity and water and also because in a year 14,500 people have been killed.
the conflict for the opposition is: how to capitalize on the NI-NI discontent and convert it into votes for the election of deputies to the Legislative Assembly to come? The market predictions are voters: 52% Ni-Ni, 24% pro-Chavez, 19% opposed and 5% are not identified.
In 2006 66% of the NI-Ni voted for Chavez's reelection and 34% by the opposition. It is possible that these percentages are altered by this choice.
Of the new leaders at this time which is best placed is Henrique Capriles Radonski (Governor of Miranda State) with a 35% acceptance that is to say a very low percentage.
If you perform a linear correlation between the percentages for Chavistas with the percentages for the NI-Ni, in order to determine the data at end of January of 2010, this relationship is as follows:
Y = 0.260496 * X + 29.7146
With a correlation coefficient of 39% and a coefficient of determination of 13%. Which means that the behavior of the Ni-NI does not depend solely on the behavior in percentage of Chavez, but other unknown variables.
In any case, if that relationship is resolved, assuming that the Ni-Ni are equal to 52% by the end of January 2010, Chavistas then be placed in a 43%.
If half of these Ni-Ni vote for Chavez Chavismo be placed in 64% and if only 30% of the NI-Ni vote for Chavez then Chavismo 0btener achieved 59%. The % of the vote Chavistas depends on the Ni-Ni.
Consider now the equation of the relationship between percentage of opposition to the percentages of the Ni-Ni:
Y = - 0.407407 * X + 49.11
Y = - 0.407 x 49% + 49.11
Y = -19.84 + 49.11
Y = 29,27%
This equation tells us that when the Ni-Ni 49%, then the opposition would equal 29.3%.
The lower the percentage of the NI-Ni, the higher the percentage of the opposition. The negative sign before the value of 0.407, indicating that with increasing the % of the Ni-Ni then decreases oposicion. If % of the percentage of Ni-Ni is zero, meaning that this electoral phenomenon did not exist, then the % of the opposition were 49%.
However the correlation coefficient is very low, 30%, which means that this relationship is not perfect because there are other variables to consider, the matter is that these other variables are unknown.
If the opposition is maintained at 20%, then the NI-NI are placed at 49%. If half of the Ni-Ni vote for the opposition it would only 45% of the votes or 35% of the vote if the Ni-Ni only granted the 30% of their votes to the opposition.