domingo, noviembre 23, 2008
On Sunday, a Most Important Election in Venezuela
On Sunday, a Most Important Election in Venezuela
[Analysis] The country fights neo-communists
Alfredo Ascanio (askain)
Published 2008-11-23 11:06 (KST)
On Nov. 23 in Venezuela will be the most important vote of its political history.
The United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) wants, with the support of President Chavez, to introduce to Venezuela a neo-communist regime that is called "Socialism of the 21st Century." Opposition groups are united with the aim of fighting for a political system known as the Social Democracy.
This is the only opportunity open to Venezuela to introduce a multiparty political with the goal of seeking a balance of power in a country where supporters of President Chavez have all the powers (executive, legislative and judicial branches) and control in 20 States Country and in most municipalities.
With only one day for these important election. The national newspapers and TV are reporting on their political predictions.
The Venezuelan political system is fully automated and these elections are more complex than the previous ones, because everyone has to vote for five or seven choices at a time limit of three minutes.
Venezuelans are hoping that this activity is transparent and there is no fraud as in previous ballots. The Electoral Council has invited 170 people to observe this political process.
Then I will report forecasts for this important election.
Forecasts of journalists are very different. For example, the editor of Las Truths of Miguel believes that the ruling party would win six governorates safe and the opposition would win five governorates safe. Miguel believes that the governorates that could earn the government are: Vargas, Anzoategui, Apure, Cojedes, Falcon and Monagas and the governorates that could win the opposition are: Nueva Esparta, Zulia, Portuguesa, Sucre and Guarico. And immediately pointed out that in the remaining 11 governorates there is a technical tie.
The Journal Fifth Day 52 journalists from around the country have predicted the election this way:
In the CENTRAL REGION: Caracas, Miranda, Carabobo, Aragua and Guarico, the forecasts are:
CARACAS: The specialist's El Universal that the Mayor of Caracas may have a final "picture" between Antonio Ledezma and Aristobulo Isturiz. And the thought that in the Liberator municipality win Jorge Rodriguez to beat the opposition Stalin Gonzales.
The specialist of VEA Journal said that Aristobulo Isturiz and Jorge Rodriguez is the winner with 8 percent over their contenders from the opposition (Ledezma and Gonzalez).
The specialist for the newspaper El Nacional predicts: Aristobulo win in the Mayor and the municipality of Chacao the opposition win with Emilio Grateron and in the Libertador municipality win Jorge Rodriguez. In the municipality of Sucre there is a technical tie between Carlos Ocariz and Jesse Chacon.
MIRANDA: The El Universal believes that will win Governor Diosdado Cabello as though it has a high percentage of rejection he can win with a 36 percent. But Miguel said that there exists a technical tie. In contrast, the editor of the Journal Progress also says he believes that there is a technical tie. El Nacional said that the fighting is tough and may win Governor Diosdado Cabello of PSUV.
CARABOBO: In this state Henrique Salas Feo he has tops polls as Mario Silva (PSUV) does not have a high convening power and Acosta Carles want to repeat with his excellent publicity "we are together, so good ". The Daily Evening News said that polls taken for a winner Salas Feo, but Acosta Carles could win. The editor of La Costa believes that Salas Feo win and Mario Silva has a lot of rejection in Carabobo. Miguel also believes that Salas Feo win.
ARAGUA: The newspaper the Aragueno believes that there is a technical tie between Rafael Isea (PSUV) and Henry Rosales (which would be continuity of the Current Governor Didalco Bolivar). While it appears that ISEA is the first choice as candidate of the PSUV with 37 percent against 32 percent for Rosales. It's a very tough fight.
GUARICO: The editor of the newspaper Antenna thinks Lenny Mannuit should win and the loser would be William Lara (PSUV). It's a tough choice but Mannuit has many chances of winning said Miguel.
In the western region, comprising by states: Falcon, Lara, Cojedes, Barinas, Apure and Yaracuy, the forecasts are as follows:
FALCON: The candidate of the opposition Goyo Graterol has the potential to 5 percent on Stella Montilla. Miguel said that Stella's ruling coalition would win the governorship.
LARA: It seems that the candidate's PSUV Henry Falcon could win. Miguel says the same thing.
COJEDES: The choice is tough but the PSUV Teodoro Bolivar could win in front of Alberto Galindo. Miguel also believes that Bolivar will win.
BARINAS: it seems that Julio Cesar Reyes can win and Rafael Simon Jimenez may lose (unitary candidate of the opposition), but Adam Chavez's brother President Chavez will not win.
APURE: It is possible to win Jesus Aguilarte ( PSUV) and Miriam Montilla may lose. It's the same prognosis of Miguel.
YARACUY: seems to win Julio Leon Heredia (PSUV) and opposite Edward Capdevielle may lose.
In the Zulia Region: Gian Carlos Di Martino's PSUV lose in front of Pablo Perez that would be the Governor of Zulia.
In the Andean: consisting of the States Tachira, Trujillo and Merida forecasts are:
TACHIRA: Everything points to the possible candidacy of unitary Cesar Perez Vivas, although Leonaldo Salcedo appears to have the first option that is the candidate of the PSUV.
MERIDA: There is a technical tie between William Davila of the opposition and Marcos Diaz Oreland's PSUV, but Davila has a better chance.
TRUJILLO: A hard-fought contest between the PSUV Hugo Cabezas and Octaviano Mejias (Patriotic Alliance) and Enrique Catalan of the Opposition has no strength.
In EASTERN REGION: consisting of the States Anzoategui, Monagas, Nueva Esparta, Bolivar, Delta Amacuro and Sucre, the forecasts are:
ANZOATEGUI: Tarek William Saab's PSUV, has a chance to repeat as governor, with 30 percent on Gustavo Marcano of the opposition.
MONAGAS: It is possible that the PSUV Jose Briceno is the new governor of that state. A front Moncho Fuentes.
NUEVA ESPARTA: Can repeat Morel Rodriguez the current governor of the opposition and William Farinas (PSUV) will lose.
BOLIVAR: A very confusing choice but Rangel Gomez is leading the polls in front of Andres Velasquez, who has sounded much.
SUCRE: it seems that won the independent Eduardo Morales Gil.
DELTA AMACURO: Pedro Santaella of PSUV will win.
WELL THIS IS THE SUBJECT OF ELECTIONS. IN SUMMARY, according to those forecasts:
The governing would win with the official party PSUV (United Socialist Party of Venezuela):
Vargas, Yaracuy, Bolivar, Monagas, Anzoategui, Tachira, Caracas, Miranda, Falcon, Lara, Cojedes, Apure, Barinas, Delta Amacuro (14 states and Caracas)
The Opposition win: Trujillo, Merida, Carabobo, Guarico, Zulia, Sucre, Nueva Esparta, Portuguesa (eight States), and losing in Caracas.
This is the start of searching for a better political balance in the country and to combat intolerance and unacceptable fact of political prisoners and waste the money of the people in political campaigning in the country and in other countries such as Cuba, Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua.
Alfredo Ascanio is a professor of economics at Simon Bolivar University in Caracas, Venezuela.
Other articles by reporter Alfredo Ascanio