Moment of Truth in Venezuela

Moment of Truth in Venezuela
Poll suggest Rosales could defeat Chavez in Sunday's presidential election
Alfredo Ascanio (askain)

Published 2006-12-03 11:46 (KST)

A recent telephone-based study conducted over a 44-day period predicts that Manuel Rosales will win the presidency of Venezuela on Dec. 3 with 55 percent of the votes, and that Chavez will only receive 43 percent.

It is likely that 67 percent of the 15,919,200 registered voters will come out to the polls because abstention rates have tended to be 33 percent. It is estimated that Manuel Rosales will obtain 5,866,255 votes and that Hugo will get 4,586,321. This is if there's no fraud, of course.


These figures are just estimates of course, and a truer indication of Sunday's results is the number of supporters who have been mobilized in the streets and avenues of Caracas for each candidate.

The experts calculate that Manuel Rosales mobilized more or less 980,000 citizens.

Chavez seems to have mobilized 250,000 citizens, more or less. It has been suggested that he was able to mobilize such a high number because 2,150 buses were used to bring people in from around the country. It is also alleged that many of them were paid with a bonus equivalent to one month's wages.

On Dec. 3 all eyes will be on the electronic voting machines. When voting is finished at 4 p.m., each center or table will emit a count.

The count will be given to the witnesses of the presidential candidates, who will then proceed to negotiate which boxes will be verified or audited. Only 55 percent of the boxes will be used to verify the transparency of the voting.

As the voting system is electronic, the final results will be known some hours after the process is finished.

The citizens wait for voting without conflict and with an elevated affection for democracy.

That same day Venezuela will begin to be very different from a political, social, and economic point of view.