viernes, mayo 01, 2009
jueves, abril 30, 2009
What You Need to Know About Swine Flu
What You Need to Know About Swine Flu
Prof. Robert Bragg, Dept. of Microbial,
Biochemical and Food Biotech at Uni. of Free State, SA
by
Nicolas van der Leek (Nick)
This is a transcript of a recent interview with Professor Robert Bragg,from the Department of Microbial, Biochemical and Food Biotechnology at the University of the Free State, South Africa.
Would you say we, as in "the world," lack urgency in response to what we currently know?
No. The veterinary services have a management team looking into avian influenza.
Locally?
Yes. In South Africa there was the ostrich outbreak recently, although it was a slightly different virus.
2003?
Yes. South Africa remains one of the few countries that has successfully eradicated an avian influenza outbreak through isolation and the use of suitable disinfectants.
So we have a good capability?
Yes, we have a good capability and people are monitoring migratory birds that are coming in.
Was SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) an aberration?
SARS was also a virus that went from animals to humans. But it's a different virus. It's a corona virus.
But did it shock and surprise?
Yes.
So it was an aberration?
Yes, it was an unknown virus. You have certain viruses that cross the species barrier. And when they do, they cause problems. Because they've crossed that species barrier they've lost their specificity for specific cells, and that means that they become more virulent.
Flu is at its most infectious when you're asymptomatic. So if you installed airport scanners, would they work?
They worked for SARS as people were only infectious once they started showing clinical signs, eg. high temperature. But they wouldn't work with bird flu. There's basically diddly squat we can do about it.
My information is not scientific. For example, at Hong Kong airport (on Nov. 11, 2005) they were saying to people "you need to wash your hands if you've handled live poultry."
The big scare at the moment is the virus has been able to spread from chickens to humans. Any good hygiene practices, such as washing and disinfecting of hands when working with poultry, is a good idea. The virus hasn't developed human to human transmission.
Is that certain?
No. It's not certain but it's likely. If that happens we're going to have a major pandemic.
I know this isn't very scientific but I watched a documentary with footage of Vietnam where they felt that there had been a human to human (transmission) between a family. That was an isolated thing, but if you look at the trends based on the news?
The main reason the people are culling the birds when there's an outbreak, is to limit the bird to human transmission. The more bird to human transmissions you get the better the chance (the virus will) develop human to human transmission.
The latest information from China indicates that their virus has mutated, but has still not developed human to human transmission. And once it's developed human to human transmission then it's going to grow. And the problem with this virus is it's a nasty virus.
What concerns me, and I've been following this for weeks, maybe months, is that the news reports are increasing. In 1918 (the media) often denied it, even though it was happening.
Under certain circumstances you can understand it. But on a personal level people can limit certain kinds of behaviour like overseas travel and so on. What concerns me is: I lived in the Far East for 4 years, so I'm aware of how dirty and crowded it is there.
And now it's winter there. And today another woman died in China. Even though it's one case. And I still have a mild case of a flu I picked up in South Korea. So you just need one case of someone with the flu getting bird flu, you know?
If you start comparing the 1918 outbreak, and you start delving into what happened, and you start looking at what's happening now, it starts getting a bit scary. We've just got to hope that it doesn't develop human to human transmission.
I feel like that no one's thinking about it really.
No. Ordinary people are not thinking about it.
But shouldn't they be?
There's not really much that can be done about it. If this virus develops, if it gets to the human to human stage, we can pretty much do what we could do in 1918 and that is nothing.
Couldn't you start taking multivitamins?
It's not really going to help. It may boost the immune system, which will help, but basically it is the person's immune system which will have to combat the virus. It's best that (people) don't really realise the full extent of the concern that's going around.
So if you knew something you wouldn't tell your wife?
Ja.
You wouldn't?
(muffled)...uh...The problem is if this virus develops human to human transmission the world's going to know about it anyway.
What do you envisage?
I think the probability that it's going to develop human to human transmission is high.
Yes. And what sort of timeframe?
It's difficult to say. If you look at stuff on the Internet and you're listening to what's on the radio...the disaster management (operations) in Australia and the States ? they're not talking about 'if' it happens, they're talking about 'when' it happens.
I'm aware of that. Branson bought 10,000 vaccines for his airline staff, and he did it now, believing they're on the frontlines of the disease.
That's the other problem. The virus hasn't developed human to human transmission. When the virus develops human to human transmission it might change. So the vaccines that you're using now are not necessarily going to have an effect.
Like Tamilflu?
That's a medication. The vaccines might not work. The virus is changing. There's a good probability the vaccines will work, but the vaccines are produced in eggs and it has to be in special eggs, so called SPF eggs which stands for "Specific Pathogen Free" eggs.
Chicken eggs?
Yes, specific pathogen free eggs. But the problem is that as this is a poultry virus and is highly virulent for poultry, it is difficult to make a vaccine in eggs, because the embryos die before there is a high concentration of virus which is needed for vaccine production, so it's very difficult making the vaccine.
How quickly will it be picked up if there is a case of human to human transmission?
I think the monitoring is in place. The monitoring of migratory birds all over the world (and) coming into South Africa (is there). The monitoring of poultry industries all over the world is very geared towards avian influenza at the moment.
You were saying it's a 'nasty' virus. Are we seeing it becoming more lethal?
In poultry it's deadly. It kills chickens within a few days. If it gets into a poultry house of 30,000 birds, three days later they're dead. When people have got the virus from birds you're looking at a 67 percent mortality rate. The 1918 epidemic was between 3-5 percent.
Where do you think Ground Zero is?
You mean where will it break out? It's in the East. Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, China. Basically where you have the rural environment. People with pigs and chickens living in the same environment.
Is bird flu spreading to pigs?
At this stage I'm not sure it's got into pigs. The 1918 epidemic did have a cycling effect, and quite often the virus does go into pigs. Normally the pig is the mixing vessel. If a pig picks up an avian influenza virus from birds, a human influenza virus from humans and has its own influenza virus, the viruses re-associate in the pig and what comes out of the pig is often a problem.
For people?
For people. This one has skipped out the pig. If it goes through the pig it might increase the probability that there could be problems in terms of human to human transmission.
This concerns me. A healthy economic apparatus. With fast food chains we have an incredible demand for food. We have mass production of chickens and other animals. Does this sort of unnatural production of livestock, of poultry, do you think that is the source (of H5N1)?
No, it wouldn't be the source but whenever you start putting any animal into mass production, your probabilities of diseases increase. But you wouldn't get a spontaneous generous of (this) virus. But you know if you have a small fire it's easy to put out. You can blow a match out but you can't blow a forest fire out.
So is the source of H5N1 and all these HN variants; is it just a natural fluctuation?
Yes. The normal influenza that we get is different combinations, but they don't have the increased virulence. So if you have the flu this year, you're not going to get the same strain next year. They'll be a different combination of H and N. This particular combination that we're getting now is a problem because it makes it virulent.
Okay so we have a natural source, but the world has become so unnatural. We've got six billion people, we've got so many people with AIDS, so aren't the implications quite severe? Are the indications quite serious?
If this virus develops human to human transmission it's going to be really serious. Putting these things into a magazine, you've got to be careful you don't create mass panic.
That's not what I do want to do, because it's South Africa, and because it's my home...
Basically once you get to human to human transmission, there's not a lot that can be done.
What about vaccines?
If the virus mutates the vaccines are going to be useless. The problem is also you can't just all of a sudden produce a whole lot of vaccines. For two reasons: one, the vaccine manufacturers don't know what the virus is going to look like.
So they wouldn't want to produce tons and tons of vaccines and then the virus changes. The problem is you also just can't get enough SPF eggs to produce the vaccine you need. Even if they know what the virus is there's a limit to how many doses of vaccine can be made.
That's a difficult thing to solve, but on a more practical level, what can you do? As far as I know, Australia has already simulated it. Simulated bird flu breaking out.
With SARS, when I was in the Philippines a year ago, they had devices that monitored body temperature installed at the airports. But if you look at the 1918 virus, that virus got around the world three times in eight months when there weren't planes.
I think they went with ships.
Now with international air travel, if it breaks out, if you get serious human to human transmission in, say, Cambodia, in 96 hours it's around the world.
What about...here we are in Bloemfontein, on the Free State campus. We've got the hospital right next door. I mean some kind of emergency plan so that there's not chaos or a situation where we need 1,000 beds.
I don't know what the different countries' disaster management plans are.
That's my concern for this country.
There is a well established disaster management system for this country.
What do you mean?
Managing and controlling situations and disasters. If there's a fire or a flood for example.
Do you think that's adequate?
It probably would be adequate. (Pause) If it develops human to human transmission ? if it breaks ? it's going to be a worldwide disaster on an unprecedented scale.
It's hard to convey that without spreading panic. I see that when it happens, everyone will have to stay home. You'll see an immediate worldwide paralysis.
Yes. They're estimating in Australia, if this virus breaks, it's going to take businesses three years to return to normal.
So people are saying it's inevitable. So what do you think? Next year?
You can't put a timeframe to it.
Is there not a trend?
If you look at the epidemiology the influenza pandemics go in cycles. And when we're pretty much in the stage where it's expected.
You know if you drive on a road, then you see a sign that says, "High Accident Rate Next 7km". So when did our sign start?
They started getting worried, they started feeling that the cycle was coming, 'round 4 to 5 years ago. And that's round about the same time this virus started popping up. Popping up all over the place. It pops up in Thailand, and then they get it under control. Then it pops up in Indonesia, then it pops up in Thailand again. So it's like a boiling pot. You squash it there and it comes up there. And all the time it's the same or a very similar virus.
What is the cycle?
I don't know offhand what the cycle is. But you know the 1918 was the most serious. They reckon over 50 million died in 1918. That was a serious outbreak. It goes in cycles, and timewise we're at a point where it's expected. But it's a biological entity, so you can't apply mathematical formulas to it.
I know migratory birds congregate at Langebaan. What are vulnerable areas in South Africa?
We have a swift bird nest at our house. It's just come back, you know. I don't think the virus really got into Russia by the time they left (for Africa).
Is the primary agent the duck?
Yes, the duck carries the virus without severe clinical signs. The duck doesn't die.
That's interesting. So maybe it comes from a water source somewhere. Should we try to make the vaccine available in South Africa?
There is a vaccine available for poultry. There were some mutterances that the government was going to allow the vaccine in. We're an avian influenza free country, apart from the case of the ostriches in 2003. The country has recently regained its AI free status. As a routine the poultry in this country are not vaccinated. And there's not a ready supply of vaccines.
When you say available, you mean internationally?
Yes.
So wouldn't that be something we should call for: a national stockpile.
It's a bit of a catch 22, the government has successfully controlled disease outbreaks in the ostriches (and others, like foot and mouth virus), and they've got a well established system for localising it and preventing it from getting out. So do you go for the stamping out policy or do you vaccinate? The problem is if you vaccinate you lose your monitoring scheme. You can't monitor if the birds are vaccinated.
I know in China they've found that some of the vaccines used were counterfeit. Okay this might seem like a stupid question: What role does AIDS play in H5N1 and is there any chance of a recombination between HIV and H5N1?
They're totally different viruses. If the pandemic breaks, the only thing that is going to save a person is your immunity. And obviously if a person has HIV their immune system is not up to standard.
Who in South Africa is responsible for dealing with this issue?
From the poultry point of view, the veterinary services have got a committee.
The South African Poultry Association and Veterinary Services are looking at (H5N1) very seriously. There's a lot of expertise in the country on the avian side of the disease.
I don't know what's happening on the medical side.
Last question, what are your latest thoughts on this?
You know, I keep watching the news, and every now and then (I) get on the Internet to see what's happening. Basically my thoughts are: I'm just hoping and praying it doesn't develop human to human transmission. Because if it does ...
When it does.
I'd still like to say 'if' it does...If it develops into human to human transmission, we're going to have a big problem. It's going to be by far the most serious disease outbreak that the world has ever seen. The 1918 (virus) remains the pathogen that's killed the most people on Earth.
Something like 152 people have died so far, with 2,000 infected. But that can change in an hour.
At the moment, as you say, 152 people have died, it may not seem like news headlines. But if you think of the number of times it's been reported, you can start getting some idea of the concern behind it.
For more information: www.nickvanderleek.com
Prof. Robert Bragg, Dept. of Microbial,
Biochemical and Food Biotech at Uni. of Free State, SA
by
Nicolas van der Leek (Nick)
This is a transcript of a recent interview with Professor Robert Bragg,from the Department of Microbial, Biochemical and Food Biotechnology at the University of the Free State, South Africa.
Would you say we, as in "the world," lack urgency in response to what we currently know?
No. The veterinary services have a management team looking into avian influenza.
Locally?
Yes. In South Africa there was the ostrich outbreak recently, although it was a slightly different virus.
2003?
Yes. South Africa remains one of the few countries that has successfully eradicated an avian influenza outbreak through isolation and the use of suitable disinfectants.
So we have a good capability?
Yes, we have a good capability and people are monitoring migratory birds that are coming in.
Was SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) an aberration?
SARS was also a virus that went from animals to humans. But it's a different virus. It's a corona virus.
But did it shock and surprise?
Yes.
So it was an aberration?
Yes, it was an unknown virus. You have certain viruses that cross the species barrier. And when they do, they cause problems. Because they've crossed that species barrier they've lost their specificity for specific cells, and that means that they become more virulent.
Flu is at its most infectious when you're asymptomatic. So if you installed airport scanners, would they work?
They worked for SARS as people were only infectious once they started showing clinical signs, eg. high temperature. But they wouldn't work with bird flu. There's basically diddly squat we can do about it.
My information is not scientific. For example, at Hong Kong airport (on Nov. 11, 2005) they were saying to people "you need to wash your hands if you've handled live poultry."
The big scare at the moment is the virus has been able to spread from chickens to humans. Any good hygiene practices, such as washing and disinfecting of hands when working with poultry, is a good idea. The virus hasn't developed human to human transmission.
Is that certain?
No. It's not certain but it's likely. If that happens we're going to have a major pandemic.
I know this isn't very scientific but I watched a documentary with footage of Vietnam where they felt that there had been a human to human (transmission) between a family. That was an isolated thing, but if you look at the trends based on the news?
The main reason the people are culling the birds when there's an outbreak, is to limit the bird to human transmission. The more bird to human transmissions you get the better the chance (the virus will) develop human to human transmission.
The latest information from China indicates that their virus has mutated, but has still not developed human to human transmission. And once it's developed human to human transmission then it's going to grow. And the problem with this virus is it's a nasty virus.
What concerns me, and I've been following this for weeks, maybe months, is that the news reports are increasing. In 1918 (the media) often denied it, even though it was happening.
Under certain circumstances you can understand it. But on a personal level people can limit certain kinds of behaviour like overseas travel and so on. What concerns me is: I lived in the Far East for 4 years, so I'm aware of how dirty and crowded it is there.
And now it's winter there. And today another woman died in China. Even though it's one case. And I still have a mild case of a flu I picked up in South Korea. So you just need one case of someone with the flu getting bird flu, you know?
If you start comparing the 1918 outbreak, and you start delving into what happened, and you start looking at what's happening now, it starts getting a bit scary. We've just got to hope that it doesn't develop human to human transmission.
I feel like that no one's thinking about it really.
No. Ordinary people are not thinking about it.
But shouldn't they be?
There's not really much that can be done about it. If this virus develops, if it gets to the human to human stage, we can pretty much do what we could do in 1918 and that is nothing.
Couldn't you start taking multivitamins?
It's not really going to help. It may boost the immune system, which will help, but basically it is the person's immune system which will have to combat the virus. It's best that (people) don't really realise the full extent of the concern that's going around.
So if you knew something you wouldn't tell your wife?
Ja.
You wouldn't?
(muffled)...uh...The problem is if this virus develops human to human transmission the world's going to know about it anyway.
What do you envisage?
I think the probability that it's going to develop human to human transmission is high.
Yes. And what sort of timeframe?
It's difficult to say. If you look at stuff on the Internet and you're listening to what's on the radio...the disaster management (operations) in Australia and the States ? they're not talking about 'if' it happens, they're talking about 'when' it happens.
I'm aware of that. Branson bought 10,000 vaccines for his airline staff, and he did it now, believing they're on the frontlines of the disease.
That's the other problem. The virus hasn't developed human to human transmission. When the virus develops human to human transmission it might change. So the vaccines that you're using now are not necessarily going to have an effect.
Like Tamilflu?
That's a medication. The vaccines might not work. The virus is changing. There's a good probability the vaccines will work, but the vaccines are produced in eggs and it has to be in special eggs, so called SPF eggs which stands for "Specific Pathogen Free" eggs.
Chicken eggs?
Yes, specific pathogen free eggs. But the problem is that as this is a poultry virus and is highly virulent for poultry, it is difficult to make a vaccine in eggs, because the embryos die before there is a high concentration of virus which is needed for vaccine production, so it's very difficult making the vaccine.
How quickly will it be picked up if there is a case of human to human transmission?
I think the monitoring is in place. The monitoring of migratory birds all over the world (and) coming into South Africa (is there). The monitoring of poultry industries all over the world is very geared towards avian influenza at the moment.
You were saying it's a 'nasty' virus. Are we seeing it becoming more lethal?
In poultry it's deadly. It kills chickens within a few days. If it gets into a poultry house of 30,000 birds, three days later they're dead. When people have got the virus from birds you're looking at a 67 percent mortality rate. The 1918 epidemic was between 3-5 percent.
Where do you think Ground Zero is?
You mean where will it break out? It's in the East. Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, China. Basically where you have the rural environment. People with pigs and chickens living in the same environment.
Is bird flu spreading to pigs?
At this stage I'm not sure it's got into pigs. The 1918 epidemic did have a cycling effect, and quite often the virus does go into pigs. Normally the pig is the mixing vessel. If a pig picks up an avian influenza virus from birds, a human influenza virus from humans and has its own influenza virus, the viruses re-associate in the pig and what comes out of the pig is often a problem.
For people?
For people. This one has skipped out the pig. If it goes through the pig it might increase the probability that there could be problems in terms of human to human transmission.
This concerns me. A healthy economic apparatus. With fast food chains we have an incredible demand for food. We have mass production of chickens and other animals. Does this sort of unnatural production of livestock, of poultry, do you think that is the source (of H5N1)?
No, it wouldn't be the source but whenever you start putting any animal into mass production, your probabilities of diseases increase. But you wouldn't get a spontaneous generous of (this) virus. But you know if you have a small fire it's easy to put out. You can blow a match out but you can't blow a forest fire out.
So is the source of H5N1 and all these HN variants; is it just a natural fluctuation?
Yes. The normal influenza that we get is different combinations, but they don't have the increased virulence. So if you have the flu this year, you're not going to get the same strain next year. They'll be a different combination of H and N. This particular combination that we're getting now is a problem because it makes it virulent.
Okay so we have a natural source, but the world has become so unnatural. We've got six billion people, we've got so many people with AIDS, so aren't the implications quite severe? Are the indications quite serious?
If this virus develops human to human transmission it's going to be really serious. Putting these things into a magazine, you've got to be careful you don't create mass panic.
That's not what I do want to do, because it's South Africa, and because it's my home...
Basically once you get to human to human transmission, there's not a lot that can be done.
What about vaccines?
If the virus mutates the vaccines are going to be useless. The problem is also you can't just all of a sudden produce a whole lot of vaccines. For two reasons: one, the vaccine manufacturers don't know what the virus is going to look like.
So they wouldn't want to produce tons and tons of vaccines and then the virus changes. The problem is you also just can't get enough SPF eggs to produce the vaccine you need. Even if they know what the virus is there's a limit to how many doses of vaccine can be made.
That's a difficult thing to solve, but on a more practical level, what can you do? As far as I know, Australia has already simulated it. Simulated bird flu breaking out.
With SARS, when I was in the Philippines a year ago, they had devices that monitored body temperature installed at the airports. But if you look at the 1918 virus, that virus got around the world three times in eight months when there weren't planes.
I think they went with ships.
Now with international air travel, if it breaks out, if you get serious human to human transmission in, say, Cambodia, in 96 hours it's around the world.
What about...here we are in Bloemfontein, on the Free State campus. We've got the hospital right next door. I mean some kind of emergency plan so that there's not chaos or a situation where we need 1,000 beds.
I don't know what the different countries' disaster management plans are.
That's my concern for this country.
There is a well established disaster management system for this country.
What do you mean?
Managing and controlling situations and disasters. If there's a fire or a flood for example.
Do you think that's adequate?
It probably would be adequate. (Pause) If it develops human to human transmission ? if it breaks ? it's going to be a worldwide disaster on an unprecedented scale.
It's hard to convey that without spreading panic. I see that when it happens, everyone will have to stay home. You'll see an immediate worldwide paralysis.
Yes. They're estimating in Australia, if this virus breaks, it's going to take businesses three years to return to normal.
So people are saying it's inevitable. So what do you think? Next year?
You can't put a timeframe to it.
Is there not a trend?
If you look at the epidemiology the influenza pandemics go in cycles. And when we're pretty much in the stage where it's expected.
You know if you drive on a road, then you see a sign that says, "High Accident Rate Next 7km". So when did our sign start?
They started getting worried, they started feeling that the cycle was coming, 'round 4 to 5 years ago. And that's round about the same time this virus started popping up. Popping up all over the place. It pops up in Thailand, and then they get it under control. Then it pops up in Indonesia, then it pops up in Thailand again. So it's like a boiling pot. You squash it there and it comes up there. And all the time it's the same or a very similar virus.
What is the cycle?
I don't know offhand what the cycle is. But you know the 1918 was the most serious. They reckon over 50 million died in 1918. That was a serious outbreak. It goes in cycles, and timewise we're at a point where it's expected. But it's a biological entity, so you can't apply mathematical formulas to it.
I know migratory birds congregate at Langebaan. What are vulnerable areas in South Africa?
We have a swift bird nest at our house. It's just come back, you know. I don't think the virus really got into Russia by the time they left (for Africa).
Is the primary agent the duck?
Yes, the duck carries the virus without severe clinical signs. The duck doesn't die.
That's interesting. So maybe it comes from a water source somewhere. Should we try to make the vaccine available in South Africa?
There is a vaccine available for poultry. There were some mutterances that the government was going to allow the vaccine in. We're an avian influenza free country, apart from the case of the ostriches in 2003. The country has recently regained its AI free status. As a routine the poultry in this country are not vaccinated. And there's not a ready supply of vaccines.
When you say available, you mean internationally?
Yes.
So wouldn't that be something we should call for: a national stockpile.
It's a bit of a catch 22, the government has successfully controlled disease outbreaks in the ostriches (and others, like foot and mouth virus), and they've got a well established system for localising it and preventing it from getting out. So do you go for the stamping out policy or do you vaccinate? The problem is if you vaccinate you lose your monitoring scheme. You can't monitor if the birds are vaccinated.
I know in China they've found that some of the vaccines used were counterfeit. Okay this might seem like a stupid question: What role does AIDS play in H5N1 and is there any chance of a recombination between HIV and H5N1?
They're totally different viruses. If the pandemic breaks, the only thing that is going to save a person is your immunity. And obviously if a person has HIV their immune system is not up to standard.
Who in South Africa is responsible for dealing with this issue?
From the poultry point of view, the veterinary services have got a committee.
The South African Poultry Association and Veterinary Services are looking at (H5N1) very seriously. There's a lot of expertise in the country on the avian side of the disease.
I don't know what's happening on the medical side.
Last question, what are your latest thoughts on this?
You know, I keep watching the news, and every now and then (I) get on the Internet to see what's happening. Basically my thoughts are: I'm just hoping and praying it doesn't develop human to human transmission. Because if it does ...
When it does.
I'd still like to say 'if' it does...If it develops into human to human transmission, we're going to have a big problem. It's going to be by far the most serious disease outbreak that the world has ever seen. The 1918 (virus) remains the pathogen that's killed the most people on Earth.
Something like 152 people have died so far, with 2,000 infected. But that can change in an hour.
At the moment, as you say, 152 people have died, it may not seem like news headlines. But if you think of the number of times it's been reported, you can start getting some idea of the concern behind it.
For more information: www.nickvanderleek.com
domingo, abril 26, 2009
Un viaje especial
Hoy me encuentro fuera de Venezuela. Estoy con mi esposa visitando a nuestra hija Marisol,a su esposo Amilcar y a su hija Sofia Isabel que tienen su residencia en Houston,Texas.Yo no viajaba a USA hace como varios meses y ahora he podido comprobar algo importante: la clase media viven muy bien, el desempleo no se ha sentido ni en la actividad comercial ni en los servicios; esto lo que quiere decir es qu el desempleo se ha producido en las grandes empresas y en la actividad bancaria con grandes corporaciones que han quebrado. En resumen : la crisis es en el campo financiero y en el campo de la industria de la construccion,pero los otros sectores funcionan bien.
La csa queda en la Urbanizacion XX, al entrar desde la Avenida YY, se encuentra primero el CLUB de la urbanizacion que se llama ZZ y se cruza a la izquierda para entrar a la calle South Wimbledon,dr, y al llegar a Copinsay,dr.se cruza a la isquierda y otra vez al llegar a Shining Leaf, ct se entra en esa calle que es una calle cerrada y se buca la casa No. 5927.
An experience of a journeyToday I'm in Houston (Texas). The city is subject to the inclemency of nature and the heavy rains.I travel with my wife and we came to the house of my daughter Marisol,Amilcar and Sofia Isabel. The route was Caracas, Miami, Houston. The trip Caracas / Miami was an Air Bus 300 and the trip up to six hours to Houston.El climate of the city of Miami was nice, but the passport control was very slow (1 hour).My perception of the city (the image of this city) is that downtown is comprised of 20 buildings very high and excellent architectural design. Downtown is connected to the residential areas wish a 12 channels Highway. Houses at residential areas are wish gray and brown roofed and then the view from the plane is very different from the roofs of the Miami houses that have another colors.
La csa queda en la Urbanizacion XX, al entrar desde la Avenida YY, se encuentra primero el CLUB de la urbanizacion que se llama ZZ y se cruza a la izquierda para entrar a la calle South Wimbledon,dr, y al llegar a Copinsay,dr.se cruza a la isquierda y otra vez al llegar a Shining Leaf, ct se entra en esa calle que es una calle cerrada y se buca la casa No. 5927.
An experience of a journeyToday I'm in Houston (Texas). The city is subject to the inclemency of nature and the heavy rains.I travel with my wife and we came to the house of my daughter Marisol,Amilcar and Sofia Isabel. The route was Caracas, Miami, Houston. The trip Caracas / Miami was an Air Bus 300 and the trip up to six hours to Houston.El climate of the city of Miami was nice, but the passport control was very slow (1 hour).My perception of the city (the image of this city) is that downtown is comprised of 20 buildings very high and excellent architectural design. Downtown is connected to the residential areas wish a 12 channels Highway. Houses at residential areas are wish gray and brown roofed and then the view from the plane is very different from the roofs of the Miami houses that have another colors.
Obama and Welfare Economics
Obama and Welfare Economics
[Analysis] The pursuit of equality
Alfredo Ascanio (askain)
Published 2009-04-25 13:14 (KST)
Welfare economics is a very important branch of economic theory; it serves as a foundation to many applied such as public finance, and the economics of government policy.
Welfare may diverge from utility (or preference). Distinguishing basic value judgments from subjective judgments of fact enhances the role of economist in policy recommendation.
But what is the principle underlying this segment of the economy? The Pareto Principle: This principle says that a change is desirable if it makes some individuals better off without making any other individuals worse off.
This principle is a reasonable sufficient-criterion for a social improvement. However, most policy changes make some individuals better off and some worse off. And that is the big problem that can be presented to President Obama and his team.
Can Obama still have a sufficient criterion for social improvement? Different welfare criterion in terms of compensation tests have been proposed to deal with cases where some individuals are made better off and some worse off.
The problem of social choice is to see whether we can derive our social preference based on the preferences of individuals, satisfying certain reasonable conditions. This seems simple enough and nothing more than the basic requirement of democracy. But a formidable difficulty is encountered in this problem of social choice.
A neo-dictator, he may say that, "the social welfare should just be my preference. Whatever I prefer or whatever I think is good for society should prevail"
The Majority Preference Criterion says that "x" should be preferred to "y" if no one prefers "y" to "x" and at least half of the population prefer "x" to "y."
What is the optimal distribution of income? The analysis concentrate on the choice of a tax schedule and then achieve an optimal balance between the need to provide incentives to work and the reduction of inequality due to differential earning skills.
Nevertheless, this is not the only relevant issue: the difference in skills is not the only cause of inequality; income taxation is not the only problem in economic justice. In fact, some people believe that equality of opportunity is more important than equality of income, because equality of opportunity will lead to equality of income, and equality of income is not an injustice if there is equality of opportunity.
The pursuit of equality by progressive income taxation is usually limited by the consideration of this incentive.
Wider problems related to social welfare are briefly considered and then we have the following question: does economic growth increase social welfare? Answers to such question can only be provided by a complete analysis of all institutional effects. Due to the increasing complexity of modern society, it is likely that more problems are going to involve significant institutional and subjective effects, making a complete multidisciplinary study more necessary.
Had Mr. Obama done a better job of selling his plan, and worked harder at making sure that Republicans were included in drafting it, they would have found it more difficult to oppose his plans.
But The Economist said: "There are some signs that Mr. Obama's administration is learning. This week the battered treasury secretary, Tim Geithner, has at last come up with a detailed plan to rescue the banks (see article and article). Its success is far from guaranteed, and the mood of Congress and the public has soured to the point where, should this plan fail, getting another one off the drawing board will be exceedingly hard. But the plan at least demonstrates the administration's acceptance that it must work with the bankers, instead of riding the wave of popular opinion against them, if it is to repair America's economy."
Alfredo Ascanio is a professor of economics at Simon Bolivar University in Caracas, Venezuela.
©2009 OhmyNews
Other articles by reporter Alfredo Ascanio
[Analysis] The pursuit of equality
Alfredo Ascanio (askain)
Published 2009-04-25 13:14 (KST)
Welfare economics is a very important branch of economic theory; it serves as a foundation to many applied such as public finance, and the economics of government policy.
Welfare may diverge from utility (or preference). Distinguishing basic value judgments from subjective judgments of fact enhances the role of economist in policy recommendation.
But what is the principle underlying this segment of the economy? The Pareto Principle: This principle says that a change is desirable if it makes some individuals better off without making any other individuals worse off.
This principle is a reasonable sufficient-criterion for a social improvement. However, most policy changes make some individuals better off and some worse off. And that is the big problem that can be presented to President Obama and his team.
Can Obama still have a sufficient criterion for social improvement? Different welfare criterion in terms of compensation tests have been proposed to deal with cases where some individuals are made better off and some worse off.
The problem of social choice is to see whether we can derive our social preference based on the preferences of individuals, satisfying certain reasonable conditions. This seems simple enough and nothing more than the basic requirement of democracy. But a formidable difficulty is encountered in this problem of social choice.
A neo-dictator, he may say that, "the social welfare should just be my preference. Whatever I prefer or whatever I think is good for society should prevail"
The Majority Preference Criterion says that "x" should be preferred to "y" if no one prefers "y" to "x" and at least half of the population prefer "x" to "y."
What is the optimal distribution of income? The analysis concentrate on the choice of a tax schedule and then achieve an optimal balance between the need to provide incentives to work and the reduction of inequality due to differential earning skills.
Nevertheless, this is not the only relevant issue: the difference in skills is not the only cause of inequality; income taxation is not the only problem in economic justice. In fact, some people believe that equality of opportunity is more important than equality of income, because equality of opportunity will lead to equality of income, and equality of income is not an injustice if there is equality of opportunity.
The pursuit of equality by progressive income taxation is usually limited by the consideration of this incentive.
Wider problems related to social welfare are briefly considered and then we have the following question: does economic growth increase social welfare? Answers to such question can only be provided by a complete analysis of all institutional effects. Due to the increasing complexity of modern society, it is likely that more problems are going to involve significant institutional and subjective effects, making a complete multidisciplinary study more necessary.
Had Mr. Obama done a better job of selling his plan, and worked harder at making sure that Republicans were included in drafting it, they would have found it more difficult to oppose his plans.
But The Economist said: "There are some signs that Mr. Obama's administration is learning. This week the battered treasury secretary, Tim Geithner, has at last come up with a detailed plan to rescue the banks (see article and article). Its success is far from guaranteed, and the mood of Congress and the public has soured to the point where, should this plan fail, getting another one off the drawing board will be exceedingly hard. But the plan at least demonstrates the administration's acceptance that it must work with the bankers, instead of riding the wave of popular opinion against them, if it is to repair America's economy."
Alfredo Ascanio is a professor of economics at Simon Bolivar University in Caracas, Venezuela.
©2009 OhmyNews
Other articles by reporter Alfredo Ascanio
viernes, abril 24, 2009
Susana Boyle...el talento Irlandés
En las competencias de cantos siempre surge una sorpresa y la de ahora es Susan Boyle que impresion;o al jurado.
The Communications Revolution
The Communications Revolution
A look at the power of feedback in Web 2.0
Alfredo Ascanio (askain) i
Published 2009-04-24 11:29 (KST)
Many of today's online innovations deal directly with new ways to sort, organize, and filter the information and people with which we want to connect. Smarter "bridges" are popping up every day. Truly exciting stuff.
The introduction of Web 2.0 technologies into the enterprise greatly increases the value of your company's most important assets: employees, knowledge, relationships, and initiative.
Making knowledge more visible increases innovation and shortens turnaround times. Increased collaboration accelerates productivity.
Your company transforms into a more-socially connected organization that reacts faster and more effectively to the market.
Oracle Corporation said:
"Making Web 2.0 work for your enterprise is more than just deploying a one-off blog or wiki. Organizations will need to extend beyond to an array of custom social applications that improve productivity across many business processes and spur innovation throughout the enterprise."
The development and enhancement of what has been called Web 2.0 Internet is spectacular.
The concept of Web 2.0 is a way to encourage social networking and was initiated by the publisher Tim O 'Reilly.
The first developments remind us of some sites such as MySpace and Facebook, even in the field of videos YouTube.
Making Web 2.0 Work for Enterprise
Here are four tips to master the use of Web 2.0 and have higher productivity when using Internet.
There is at Internet new ways to communicate. After the revolution of Web 2.0 has appeared several tools you can use immediately. Indeed, there are at least four ways to communicate in this new globalized world. These forms are: Feevy, Twitter, Diigo and Thinkfree.
I'm not talking about the tools. I'm talking about the facility, the method, the way this could move.
I will first explain the use of Feevy. This is a new service through which we can create our own "blogroll" of a dynamic manner. With this service you can add any blog to your web o to your blog or wiki.
If you want to experiment with this server then go to this link http://www.feevy.com/ and find a paragraph that says "get your feevy now"
Now I want to explain the use of Twitter.
Twitter's system, which limits messages to 140 characters, is used to broadcast both mundane and tantalizing information by a diverse group of users that include teenagers, celebrities, news agencies, politicians, police departments and companies. There are more than 6 million people with Twitter accounts, according to Twitter co-founder Biz Stone.
Think for a moment about the way we use Twitter, and the way that facility could change online interactions.
Four authors from the University of Maryland, Department of Computing, said:
"Twitter is a micro blogging and it is a new form of communication in which users can describe their current status in short posts distributed by instant messages, mobile phones, email or the web. Twitter, a popular microblogging tool has seen a lot of growth since it launched in October 2006 the Twitter's social network. We find that people use microblogging to talk about their daily activities and to seek or share information and connect with each other."
Some European newspapers already use this tool as the daily El Pais of Spain in its: http://twitter.com/el_pais
Twitter is the social network where anyone can search and find the affinity or need specific individuals and content to them go and meet. Twitter is a great medium for sharing ideas and getting instant feedback.
You can gather a range of opinions and constructive criticism within minutes, which can help enormously, whether you are planning a learning experience, writing a policy, or putting a job application together.
To make your own them you can go to Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/
And the Twitter Directory is: http://justtweetit.com/
Now I want to explain to communicate the potential of Diigo.
Diigo is a powerful research tool and a knowledge-sharing community.
When using the Diigo toolbar, you can see what other people have highlighted, and also comments (sticky notes) they added. That means that you are no longer limited to leaving comments on blogs, you can do so in any type of page
With this tool we can perform at one place and with our own browser, which needs to be done before with several applications.
In fact, we can add pages to a list of bookmarks on-line with export potential links in del.icio.us, furl spurl ... ... adding tags and categories for each link.
You can also select text on the web and save the page or article. Send some text to your own blog. Replace the action bar button for diigolet to do everything smoothly. Search in Google or other search engines with the same bar Diigo.
If you want to experience then do their own in Diigo: http://www.diigo.com/
Another interesting tool is Thinkfree, which you can write a paper, prepared PPS, using excel.
If you want to use this service the links is : http://www.thinkfree.com/
In brief:
Feevy is a dynamic blogroll that you can put in your blog or website by adding a simple html tag in the template.
Twitter and other micro interactions in social Media are changing the way we communicate and interact with one another.
Diigo is a social bookmarking website which allows signed-up users to bookmark and tag web pages. Additionally, it allows users to highlight any part of a webpage and attach sticky notes to specific highlights or to a whole page.
Alfredo Ascanio is a professor of economics at Simon Bolivar University in Caracas, Venezuela.
©2009 OhmyNews
Other articles by reporter Alfredo Ascanio
A look at the power of feedback in Web 2.0
Alfredo Ascanio (askain) i
Published 2009-04-24 11:29 (KST)
Many of today's online innovations deal directly with new ways to sort, organize, and filter the information and people with which we want to connect. Smarter "bridges" are popping up every day. Truly exciting stuff.
The introduction of Web 2.0 technologies into the enterprise greatly increases the value of your company's most important assets: employees, knowledge, relationships, and initiative.
Making knowledge more visible increases innovation and shortens turnaround times. Increased collaboration accelerates productivity.
Your company transforms into a more-socially connected organization that reacts faster and more effectively to the market.
Oracle Corporation said:
"Making Web 2.0 work for your enterprise is more than just deploying a one-off blog or wiki. Organizations will need to extend beyond to an array of custom social applications that improve productivity across many business processes and spur innovation throughout the enterprise."
The development and enhancement of what has been called Web 2.0 Internet is spectacular.
The concept of Web 2.0 is a way to encourage social networking and was initiated by the publisher Tim O 'Reilly.
The first developments remind us of some sites such as MySpace and Facebook, even in the field of videos YouTube.
Making Web 2.0 Work for Enterprise
Here are four tips to master the use of Web 2.0 and have higher productivity when using Internet.
There is at Internet new ways to communicate. After the revolution of Web 2.0 has appeared several tools you can use immediately. Indeed, there are at least four ways to communicate in this new globalized world. These forms are: Feevy, Twitter, Diigo and Thinkfree.
I'm not talking about the tools. I'm talking about the facility, the method, the way this could move.
I will first explain the use of Feevy. This is a new service through which we can create our own "blogroll" of a dynamic manner. With this service you can add any blog to your web o to your blog or wiki.
If you want to experiment with this server then go to this link http://www.feevy.com/ and find a paragraph that says "get your feevy now"
Now I want to explain the use of Twitter.
Twitter's system, which limits messages to 140 characters, is used to broadcast both mundane and tantalizing information by a diverse group of users that include teenagers, celebrities, news agencies, politicians, police departments and companies. There are more than 6 million people with Twitter accounts, according to Twitter co-founder Biz Stone.
Think for a moment about the way we use Twitter, and the way that facility could change online interactions.
Four authors from the University of Maryland, Department of Computing, said:
"Twitter is a micro blogging and it is a new form of communication in which users can describe their current status in short posts distributed by instant messages, mobile phones, email or the web. Twitter, a popular microblogging tool has seen a lot of growth since it launched in October 2006 the Twitter's social network. We find that people use microblogging to talk about their daily activities and to seek or share information and connect with each other."
Some European newspapers already use this tool as the daily El Pais of Spain in its: http://twitter.com/el_pais
Twitter is the social network where anyone can search and find the affinity or need specific individuals and content to them go and meet. Twitter is a great medium for sharing ideas and getting instant feedback.
You can gather a range of opinions and constructive criticism within minutes, which can help enormously, whether you are planning a learning experience, writing a policy, or putting a job application together.
To make your own them you can go to Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/
And the Twitter Directory is: http://justtweetit.com/
Now I want to explain to communicate the potential of Diigo.
Diigo is a powerful research tool and a knowledge-sharing community.
When using the Diigo toolbar, you can see what other people have highlighted, and also comments (sticky notes) they added. That means that you are no longer limited to leaving comments on blogs, you can do so in any type of page
With this tool we can perform at one place and with our own browser, which needs to be done before with several applications.
In fact, we can add pages to a list of bookmarks on-line with export potential links in del.icio.us, furl spurl ... ... adding tags and categories for each link.
You can also select text on the web and save the page or article. Send some text to your own blog. Replace the action bar button for diigolet to do everything smoothly. Search in Google or other search engines with the same bar Diigo.
If you want to experience then do their own in Diigo: http://www.diigo.com/
Another interesting tool is Thinkfree, which you can write a paper, prepared PPS, using excel.
If you want to use this service the links is : http://www.thinkfree.com/
In brief:
Feevy is a dynamic blogroll that you can put in your blog or website by adding a simple html tag in the template.
Twitter and other micro interactions in social Media are changing the way we communicate and interact with one another.
Diigo is a social bookmarking website which allows signed-up users to bookmark and tag web pages. Additionally, it allows users to highlight any part of a webpage and attach sticky notes to specific highlights or to a whole page.
Alfredo Ascanio is a professor of economics at Simon Bolivar University in Caracas, Venezuela.
©2009 OhmyNews
Other articles by reporter Alfredo Ascanio
miércoles, abril 22, 2009
Chávez se derritió
Alexander Cambero // Chávez se derritió
Unos pocos kilómetros de aguas azules separan a Cumana de Trinidad y Tobago; existe una hermosa relación histórica entre estos pueblos bañados por el Caribe. Desde tiempos inmemoriales sus habitantes cruzaron el mar para conectarse con lugares amigables y tranquilos.
En la primogénita del continente Hugo Chávez volvió a despotricar del imperio. Quiso convertir la reunión del ALBA en la respuesta efectiva ante el liderazgo emergente de Barack Obama. En su discurso parecía un temible león a punto de liquidar a su presa, con gran firmeza lanzaba portentosos improperios contra la administración norteamericana. Muchos analistas pensaban que la Cumbre de las Américas sería un escenario hostil para el primer presidente negro estadounidense.
Al llegar a Trinidad todo cambió. Hugo Chávez, acampó durante minutos para observar a Barack Obama. Cuando vio el despliegue periodístico se abalanzó sobre el líder de la Casa Blanca, buscando que los flashes captasen el momento en que apretaba su mano. Después se deshizo en atenciones. El león inmutable, devorador de cuanta presa pasa a su lado, se transformó en un cariñoso gatito, de esos que les gusta dormir en las piernas de los niños.
Cuando Barack Obama intervenía los primeros y más sonoros aplausos partían de Hugo Chávez. No perdía detalles y buscaba anotar cada frase, para asentar que efectivamente compartía el concepto del hombre al que hace poco tildó de pobre ignorante. Sus amigos del ALBA lo miraban con indignación. ¿Dónde quedó el discurso de Cumaná? En territorio venezolano un león, allá un admirador frenético que se desvive hasta la vergüenza. Cuando le regaló el libro del reconocido periodista y escritor uruguayo Eduardo Galeano, Barack Obama sonrió con ironía y casi de soslayo, hizo un ademán de fastidio ante el acoso presidencial.
Seguramente el servicio secreto extremó sus medidas para que el número uno, pudiese ir al baño con tranquilidad. Sin tener que soportar al nuevo fans enloquecido. Imagínense a alguien en plena micción, siendo torturado por la súplica incesante del huésped de Miraflores, deseando un gesto de cariño del gran timonel del vituperado imperio. Es casi como chorrearse los pantalones.
Son clásicas las posturas de Hugo Chávez. En los momentos decisivos las piernas le tiemblan y termina por arrugar. Cuando está en soledad se presenta como un gigante de poderosos tentáculos. Al momento de sentir algún riesgo huye despavorido hacía otras posiciones, dejando a sus incondicionales en la estocada. Los ejemplos son muchísimos a lo largo de diez años de desventura. Cuentan que su odio por el monseñor Baltasar Porras, viene dado porque el ilustre prelado lo vio llorar amargamente la noche del 11 de abril. Es más, el capitán que conducía el helicóptero que lo trasladaría hasta La Orchila, está preso sencillamente porque presenció cómo sollozaba aquel adalid de la lucha revolucionaria. Berreaba como chiquillo al que le quitaron una golosina.
No es de extrañar entonces, que asuma estas posiciones con Barack Obama. Mañana dirá otra cosa, ante el aplauso cómplice de su séquito de adulantes. Los mismos que han asaltado los dineros del pueblo.
El Napoleón tropical se derritió ante el imperio. Lo que le faltó fue sentarse a su lado para pedirle alguna entrada para el beisbol. Seguramente el presidente norteamericano tendrá que ir al urólogo al llegar Washington. Sus testículos pueden tener algún desgarro ante la enorme guindada del que te conté.
alexandercambero@hotmail.com
martes, abril 21, 2009
La Conferencia en New York sobre la WEB 2.0 (2.008)
Hoy aunque ya se comienza la Conferencia sobre la WEB 2.0 en San Francisco..la primera conferencia se relaizño en New york y las conferencias estás ahora en el enlace que he colocado arriba.
LA PRIMERA LEY DE LA PETROPOLÍTICA
LA PRIMERA LEY DE LA PETROPOLÍTICA (Foreign Policy)
by
Thomas Friedman
El presidente iraní niega el Holocausto, Hugo Chávez manda a los líderes occidentales al infierno, y Vladímir Putin ha sacado el
látigo. ¿Por qué? Porque saben que el precio del petróleo y el ritmo de la libertad siempre se mueven en direcciones opuestas.
Ésta es la primera ley de la petropolítica, y podría ser el axioma que explicara nuestra época.
Cuando oí al presidente de Irán, Mahmud Ahmadineyad, declarar que el Holocausto era un mito, no pude evitar pensar: "Me pregunto si estaría hablando de esta manera si el petróleo estuviera a 20 dólares el barril (15,5 euros) en lugar de 60 o más".
Cuando escuché al presidente de Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, mandar al primer ministro británico, Tony Blair, "derecho al infierno" y decir a sus defensores que el Acuerdo del Área de Libre Comercio de las Américas, que promueve Estados
Unidos, podía "irse al infierno" también, no pude evitar pensar: "Me pregunto si estaría diciendo estas cosas si el crudo estuviera a 20 dólares en lugar de 60 o más, y si su país tuviera que funcionar impulsando
la creación de empresas industriales y no sólo perforando pozos".
Siguiendo los acontecimientos en el golfo Pérsico en los últimos años, me di cuenta de que el primer país árabe de la región que celebró elecciones libres y justas en las cuales las mujeres podían presentarse como candidatas y votar, y el primero en llevar a cabo una reestructuración a fondo de su legislación laboral para facilitar la contratación de sus habitantes y hacerlos menos dependientes del trabajo importado fue Bahrein. Y resulta que Bahrein es también el primero donde se agotarán las reservas de petróleo. Además fue el primero en firmar un acuerdo de libre comercio con Estados Unidos. Y no pude evitar preguntarme:"¿Puede todo esto ser sólo una coincidencia?" Al final, cuando examiné todo el mundo árabe y vi cómo
los activistas de la democracia popular en Líbano expulsaban a las tropas sirias, no pude evitar decirme a mí mismo: "¿Es una mera casualidad que la primera y única democracia real del mundo árabe no tenga una sola gota de petróleo?".
Cuanto más ponderaba estas preguntas, más obvio me parecía que tiene que haber una correlación –una correspondencia literal que podría medirse y plasmarse en un gráfico– entre el precio del petróleo y el ritmo, alcance y sostenibilidad de las libertades políticas y de las reformas económicas en determinados países. Hace algunos meses, me dirigí al director de la edición estadounidense de FP, Moisés Naím, y le pregunté si podíamos hacer justo eso: intentar cuantificar esta
intuición de forma visual. A lo largo de uno de los ejes se pondría el precio medio global del crudo y en el otro, el ritmo de expansión o contracción de las libertades, tanto económicas como políticas, de la mejor forma en que organizaciones de investigación y análisis como Freedom House pudieran medirlas. Examinaríamos las elecciones libres y justas celebradas, los
periódicos lanzados o cerrados, los arrestos arbitrarios, los reformistas elegidos para el Parlamento, los proyectos de cambio económico, las empresas privatizadas y nacionalizadas.
Soy el primero en reconocer que esto no es un experimento científico de laboratorio, porque el auge y caída de la libertad económica y política en una sociedad nunca puede ser del todo cuantificable. Pero, dado que no estoy buscando que me den un puesto de trabajo de investigador en ningún sitio, sino más bien intentando confirmar una corazonada, merece la pena intentar demostrar esta correlación entre el precio del petróleo y el ritmo de la libertad, incluso con sus imperfecciones.
Puesto que el creciente precio del crudo va a ser un factor de primer orden que defina las relaciones internacionales en el futuro cercano, hay que intentar comprender sus conexiones con la política global. Y los gráficos aquí expuestos sugieren que existe una fuerte conexión entre el precio del petróleo y el ritmo de la libertad; tanto que quisiera iniciar este debate ofreciendo la primera ley de la petropolítica.
LA 'ENFERMEDAD HOLANDESA'
La primera ley de la petropolítica postula lo siguiente: el precio del crudo y el ritmo de la libertad siempre se mueven en direcciones opuestas en Estados petroleros ricos en crudo. Cuanto más alto sea su precio medio global, más se erosionan la libertad de expresión, la de prensa, las elecciones libres y justas, la independencia del poder judicial y de los partidos políticos y el imperio de la ley. Y estas tendencias negativas se refuerzan por el hecho de que cuanto más sube el precio, menos sensibles son los gobernantes con petróleo a lo que el mundo piensa o dice de ellos. Y, al contrario, cuanto más bajo sea el precio del crudo, más obligados se ven esos países a avanzar hacia un sistema político y una sociedad más transparentes, más sensibles a las voces de la oposición y más centrados en crear las estructuras legales y educativas que maximizarán la capacidad de su pueblo de competir, crear nuevas empresas y atraer inversiones del extranjero.
Cuanto más cae el precio del oro negro, más sensibles son los líderes productores de petróleo a lo que las fuerzas externas piensan de ellos.
Yo definiría los países petroleros como : (1) aquellos que dependen de la producción de crudo para el grueso de sus exportaciones o de su producto interior bruto (PIB) y que, al mismo tiempo, poseen instituciones estatales débiles o gobiernos autoritarios. A la cabeza de esa lista estarían Azerbaiyán, Angola, Chad, Egipto, Guinea Ecuatorial, Irán, Kazajistán, Nigeria, Rusia, Arabia Saudí, Sudán, Uzbekistán y Venezuela. Luego (2) los que tienen mucha cantidad de este hidrocarburo pero que eran Estados bien asentados con instituciones democráticas sólidas y economías diversificadas antes de descubrir su oro negro, como : Reino Unido, Noruega y EE UU, por ejemplo– Estos países no estarían sujetos a esta ley.
Desde hace tiempo, los economistas han resaltado las negativas consecuencias tanto económicas como políticas que la abundancia de recursos naturales puede tener para un país. Este fenómeno ha sido bautizado como la enfermedad holandesa o la maldición de los recursos.
El primer nombre se refiere al proceso de desindustrialización que puede resultar de la obtención de unos repentinos ingresos procedentes de la explotación de recursos naturales. El término se acuñó en los Países Bajos en los 60, después de que allí se descubrieran unos enormes depósitos de gas natural. Lo que ocurre en los países que la padecen es que aumenta el valor de sus monedas, gracias al repentino flujo de capital procedente del petróleo, el oro, el gas, los diamantes o algún otro recurso natural. Esto hace que sus exportaciones de productos se vuelvan poco competitivas y sus importaciones, muy baratas. Los ciudadanos empiezan a importar como locos, la industria nacional desaparece y se produce la desindustrialización con rapidez. La maldición de los recursos puede referirse al mismo fenómeno económico, así como, en sentido más
amplio, a la forma en que la dependencia de los recursos naturales siempre sesga la política y las prioridades de inversiones y educación de un país, de modo que todo gira en torno a quién controla el grifo del oro negro y quién obtiene cuánto de ello, y no en cómo competir, innovar y producir productos reales para mercados reales.
No pude evitar preguntarme: "¿Es una mera casualidad que la primera y única democracia real de esa región (Líbano) no tenga una sola gota de petróleo?"
Al margen de estas teorías generales, algunos politólogos han explorado cómo la abundancia de riqueza petrolera en particular puede revertir o erosionar las tendencias democratizadoras. Uno de los análisis más agudos que he leído es el trabajo del politólogo Michael Ross, de la Universidad de California (UCLA, Los Ángeles, EE UU).
Empleando un análisis estadístico de 113 países entre 1971 y 1997, concluyó que "la dependencia [de un Estado] de las exportaciones de petróleo o de minerales tienden a hacerlo menos democrático; que otros tipos de exportaciones primarias no causan este efecto; que no se limita a la península Arábiga, Oriente Medio o al África subsahariana, y que no se circunscribe a países pequeños".
Lo que encuentro más útil de este análisis es su exposición de los precisos mecanismos mediante los cuales un exceso de riqueza petrolera obstaculiza la democracia. En primer lugar, argumenta Ross, está "el efecto impuestos". Los gobiernos ricos en crudo suelen utilizar sus ingresos para "aliviar las presiones sociales que de otro modo podrían suponer exigencias de mayor responsabilidad". Me gusta expresarlo de esta otra manera: el lema de la revolución americana era "no hay
impuestos sin representación"; el del líder autoritario petrolero es "no hay representación sin impuestos". Los regímenes respaldados por el oro negro que no tienen que gravar a sus ciudadanos porque pueden perforar un pozo nuevo, tampoco tienen que escuchar a sus ciudadanos o representar sus intereses. El segundo mecanismo es "el efecto gasto".
La riqueza petrolera conduce a mayores desembolsos en mecenazgos, lo que a su vez alivia las presiones democratizadoras. El tercero es "el efecto de formación de grupos". Cuando los ingresos del crudo proporcionan a un régimen autoritario ganancias inesperadas, éste puede utilizarlas para impedir la formación de grupos sociales independientes, los más inclinados a exigir derechos políticos.
Además, argumenta el politólogo, una superabundancia de ingresos del petróleo puede crear "un efecto represión", porque permite a los gobiernos gastar en exceso en policía, seguridad interna y servicios de inteligencia, que pueden utilizarse para obstruir movimientos aperturistas. Por último, el autor ve un "efecto modernización". Una gran afluencia de riqueza petrolera puede reducir las presiones sociales para que se impulse la especialización laboral, la urbanización y la garantía de mayores niveles de educación, tendencias que normalmente acompañan a un amplio desarrollo económico y que también generan una ciudadanía que es más elocuente, más capaz de organizarse, negociar y comunicarse, y que está dotada de centros de poder económico propios.
La primera ley de la petropolítica se rige por dichos argumentos, pero intentando llevar la correlación entre petróleo y política un paso más lejos. Lo que sostengo es no sólo que una excesiva dependencia del crudo puede ser una maldición en general, sino también que pueden conectarse aumentos y descensos del precio del petróleo con incrementos y parones del ritmo de la libertad en los países petroleros. Como demuestran estos gráficos, el ritmo de la libertad empieza a ralentizarse cuando el precio del oro negro comienza a despegar.
La razón por la que merece la pena centrarse ahora en esta relación entre el precio del petróleo y la libertad es que parece que asistimos al comienzo de un aumento estructural de los precios globales del crudo. Si ése es el caso, es casi seguro que tendrá un efecto a largo plazo en el carácter de la política en muchos Estados débiles o autoritarios. Eso, a su vez, podría tener un impacto global negativo sobre el mundo posterior a la guerra fría tal y como lo conocemos.
¿UN 'EJE DEL PETRÓLEO'?
Desde los atentados terroristas del 11 de septiembre de 2001, los precios han subido desde una horquilla de entre 20 y 40 dólares a un rango de entre 40 y 70. Parte de este movimiento tiene que ver con una sensación de inseguridad general en los mercados de petróleo globales debido a la violencia en Irak, Nigeria, Indonesia y Sudán, pero otra parte aún mayor parece ser el resultado de lo que yo llamo "el aplanamiento" del mundo y la rápida entrada en el mercado global de 3.000 millones de consumidores nuevos procedentes de China, Brasil, India y el antiguo imperio soviético, todos ellos soñando con una casa, un coche, un microondas y un frigorífico. Su creciente sed de energía es enorme. Esto ya es, y seguirá siendo, una fuente constante de presión sobre el precio del crudo. A menos que se produzca un fuerte giro ecologista en Occidente o se descubra una alternativa a los combustibles fósiles, en el futuro inmediato vamos a permanecer en este rango de entre 40 y 70 dólares, o más.
Políticamente, esto hará probable que todo un grupo de países petroleros con instituciones débiles o gobiernos abiertamente
autoritarios experimenten una erosión de las libertades y un aumento de los comportamientos corruptos, autocráticos y antidemocráticos. Los dirigentes de estos Estados pueden esperar un incremento significativo de sus ingresos disponibles para crear cuerpos de seguridad, sobornar adversarios, comprar votos o apoyo público, y resistirse a acatar las normas y convenciones internacionales. No hay más que coger el periódico cualquier día de la semana para constatar esta tendencia.
Por ejemplo, un artículo de febrero de 2005 en The Wall Street Journal sobre cómo los ayatolás de Teherán –exaltados por el dinero gracias a los elevados precios del petróleo– están volviéndole la espalda a algunos inversores extranjeros en lugar de sacarles la alfombra roja.
Turkcell, un operador turco de telefonía móvil, había firmado un acuerdo con Irán para construir la primera red de telefonía móvil de propiedad privada del país. Se trataba de un acuerdo atractivo. La operadora acordó pagar 300 millones de dólares (unos 230 millones de euros) por la licencia e invertir 2.250 millones, lo que habría creado 20.000 puestos de trabajo. Pero los mulás del Parlamento congelaron el contrato, alegando que podría ayudar a los extranjeros a espiar a su país. Alí Ansari, un experto en Irán de la Universidad de Saint Andrews (Escocia), señala en The Wall Street Journal que los analistas iraníes llevaban 10 años abogando por las reformas económicas. "La realidad es que la situación es peor ahora", dice. "Tienen mucho
dinero gracias a los altos precios del petróleo y no necesitan reformar la economía".
O bien se puede echar un vistazo a un reportaje sobre la República Islámica en el número del 11 de febrero de The Economist, que apuntaba: "El nacionalismo cae mejor en un estómago lleno y el señor Ahmadineyad es el afortunado presidente que espera recibir, a lo largo del próximo año iraní, en torno a 36.000 millones de dólares en ingresos por exportaciones de petróleo para ayudar a comprar lealtades. En su primera ley presupuestaria, que está tramitándose en el Parlamento, el Gobierno ha prometido construir 300.000 viviendas, dos tercios de ellas fuera de las grandes ciudades, y mantener las subvenciones a la energía, que ascienden a un asombroso 10% del PIB".
O considérese el drama que se desarrolla en la actualidad en Nigeria. Sus presidentes tienen un límite de mandatos: dos de cuatro años. El presidente Olesegun Obasanjo accedió al poder en 1999, después de un periodo de gobierno militar, y fue reelegido por votación popular en 2003. Cuando asumió el poder saltó a los titulares de prensa por investigar violaciones de los derechos humanos por parte de los uniformados, liberar a prisioneros políticos e incluso por hacer un intento real de erradicar la corrupción. Esto era cuando el precio del crudo estaba en torno a 25 dólares el barril. Hoy día, con el crudo a
70 dólares, Obasanjo está intentando persuadir a los legisladores para que modifiquen la Constitución de modo que le permita obtener un tercer mandato. Un líder de la oposición en la Cámara de Representantes, Wunmi Bewaji, ha alegado que "se estaban ofreciendo a los parlamentarios sobornos de un millón de dólares por voto", según se citaba en un artículo de Voice of America News del 11 de marzo. "Y esto lo ha coordinado un alto representante del Senado y un alto representante de la Cámara".
Clement Nwankwo, uno de los principales activistas de los derechos humanos de Nigeria, me dijo en marzo que desde que el precio del petróleo ha empezado a subir, "las libertades públicas [han ido] en fuerte declive: se han producido arrestos arbitrarios, se ha asesinado a adversarios políticos y las instituciones democráticas han sufrido daños". El petróleo representa el 90% de las exportaciones del país africano, añade Nwankwo, y eso explica, en parte, por qué, de repente, se ha producido un aumento de los secuestros de empleados extranjeros de petroleras en el delta del Níger, muy rico en crudo. Muchos
nigerianos creen que estos trabajadores deben estar robando crudo porque lo que está llegando a la población es una parte muy pequeña de los ingresos del oro negro.
Con mucha frecuencia, en los países petroleros no sólo ocurre que toda la política gira en torno a quién controla el grifo del crudo, sino que el público adquiere una noción distorsionada de en qué consiste el desarrollo. Si son pobres y sus dirigentes son ricos, no es porque su país no haya promovido la educación, la innovación, el Estado de derecho y la creación de empresas. Es porque alguien se está llevando el dinero del petróleo. La gente empieza a pensar que, para hacerse
ricos, no tienen más que pararles los pies a quienes se lo llevan, y no construir una sociedad que promueva la educación, la innovación y la creación de empresas.
Si George Bush se asomara hoy al alma del presidente ruso (Putin II, el del crudo a 70 dólares el barril) vería que está muy negra, tan negra como el petróleo.El vínculo entre los precios del oro negro y el ritmo de la libertad es tan estrecho en algunos países que un aumento repentino del primero puede desviar del sendero de las reformas económicas y políticas hasta
a los dirigentes más previsores.
Considérese Bahrein, que sabe que su crudo se está agotando, y ha sido un modelo sobre cómo la caída de su precio puede impulsar las reformas. "Ahora nos va bien gracias a que el precio del petróleo está alto. Esto podría llevar a los gobernantes a ser complacientes", señaló recientemente a Gulf Daily News Jasim Husain Alí, director de la unidad de investigación económica de la Universidad de Bahrein. "Esta tendencia es muy peligrosa, ya que los ingresos del crudo no son sostenibles. La diversificación [de Bahrein] puede ser suficiente para los niveles del Golfo, pero no según los
estándares internacionales".
LA GEOLOGÍA MARCA LA IDEOLOGÍA
Con el debido respeto a Ronald Reagan, no creo que él hiciera caer a la Unión Soviética. Obviamente hubo muchos factores, pero el colapso de los precios del petróleo en todo el mundo hacia finales de los 80 y comienzos de los 90 desempeñó, sin duda, un papel clave (cuando la Unión Soviética se disolvió oficialmente el día de Navidad de 1991, el precio del barril rondaba los 17 dólares). Y también ayudaron a encaminar el Gobierno poscomunista de Boris Yeltsin hacia una profundización de Estado de Derecho, una mayor apertura al mundo exterior y más sensibilidad a las estructuras legales exigidas por los
inversores globales. Y luego llegó Vladímir Putin. Piénsese en la diferencia entre el presidente ruso de cuando el petróleo estaba en un rango de entre 20 y 40 dólares y el de ahora, que se sitúa entre 40 y 70. Entonces, tuvimos lo que yo llamaría : "Putin I". Después de su primer encuentro con él, en 2001, el presidente Bush dijo que se había asomado al "alma" del ex director del KGB y que vio un hombre en el que podía confiar. Si el presidente de Estados Unidos se asomara hoy al alma del presidente ruso (Putin II, el de 70 dólares el barril) vería que está muy negra, tan negra como el petróleo. Observaría que el líder de Moscú ha utilizado las ganancias inesperadas del crudo para tragarse (nacionalizar) la enorme compañía petrolera rusa, Gazprom, varios periódicos y cadenas de televisión, y toda clase de empresas rusas e instituciones antaño
independientes.
Cuando, a comienzos de los 90, los precios estaban en el nadir, incluso países petroleros árabes como Kuwait, Arabia Saudí y Egipto –este último, poseedor de unos sustanciales depósitos de gas– por lo menos hablaban de reformas económicas, cuando no de tímidos cambios políticos. Pero desde que comenzaron a subir, todo el proceso se ralentizó, sobre todo en el campo político. A medida que se acumule más y más riqueza de crudo en los países petroleros, esto podría empezar a distorsionar mucho todo el sistema internacional y la naturaleza misma del mundo posterior a la guerra fría. Cuando cayó el
muro de Berlín, se extendió la creencia de que también se había desatado una marea imparable de mercados libres y democratización. La proliferación de elecciones libres en todo el mundo durante la década posterior convirtió aquella oleada en algo muy real.
Pero en la actualidad se está encontrando con una contramarea imprevista de petroautoritarismo, que está siendo posible gracias a que el petróleo está a 70 dólares el barril. De repente, regímenes como Irán, Nigeria, Rusia y Venezuela están batiéndose en retirada de lo que parecía un imparable proceso de democratización, y autócratas elegidos en las urnas están utilizando estas repentinas ganancias para acomodarse en el poder, comprar a adversarios y defensores, y ampliar el control
estatal sobre el sector privado.
Aunque el petroautoritarismo no representa la amenaza estratégica e ideológica que el comunismo supuso para Occidente, su impacto a largo plazo podría corroer la estabilidad mundial. No es sólo que algunos de los peores regímenes tendrán dinero extra durante más tiempo que nunca para hacer las cosas más horribles, sino que países democráticos –India y Japón, por ejemplo– se verán obligados a doblegarse o a mirar hacia otro lado ante el comportamiento de Irán o Sudán, debido a su
fuerte dependencia de ellos.
Quisiera destacar de nuevo que me consta que las correlaciones que estos gráficos sugieren no son perfectas y, sin duda, hay excepciones. Pero creo que ilustran una tendencia general que uno puede ver reflejada en las noticias todos los días: el creciente precio del petróleo tiene un impacto negativo sobre el ritmo de la libertad en muchos países, y cuando se suman suficientes Estados con suficientes impactos negativos, la política global empieza a envenenarse.
Aunque no podemos influir sobre el precio del crudo en ningún país concreto, sí podemos hacerlo en su valor global, alterando la cantidad y el tipo de energía que consumimos. Cuando digo "podemos", me refiero a EE UU en particular –que absorbe en torno al 25% de la energía mundial– y a los países importadores de petróleo en general. Pensar en cómo alterar nuestros patrones de consumo energético para reducir el precio del oro negro ya no es simplemente un hobby para activistas del medio ambiente; es un imperativo de la seguridad nacional. Por lo tanto, cualquier plan de EE UU que promueva la democracia y no incluya también una estrategia creíble y sostenible para encontrar alternativas al petróleo y para hacer bajar su precio es insignificante y está abocada al fracaso. Hoy día, al margen de dónde se esté en el espectro de la política exterior, hay que pensar como un geo-verde.
Del Tio Sam al Tio Tom?
¿Del Tío Sam al Tío Tom?
Por Diego Arria
Diplomático
Cuando el barril de petróleo rondaba los 140 dólares pocos líderes internacionales se libraron de los insultos de Hugo Chavez, jefe del petro-régimen venezolano. Algunas perlas de su arsenal oral fueron: “cachorro del imperio” (Vicente Fox); “analfabeta” (Condoleeza Rice); “mafioso” y “cobarde” (Álvaro Uribe); “hitleriana” (Angela Merkel); “corrupto” (Alan García); “fascista” (José María Aznar); “criminal”, “el propio diablo” (George W. Bush); y “pendejo” (José Miguel Insulza).
Sin embargo, la caída de los precios del petróleo lo ha obligado a moderarse. Por ejemplo, al presidente electo de los Estados Unidos, Barack Obama, lo llama “El hombre negro”, y ahora predica la ne- cesidad de normalizar las relaciones con los países a cuyos líderes ha injuriado a lo largo de su mandato.
¿Pero que significa para Hugo Chávez y para los presidentes de Colombia y de los Estados Unidos normalizar relaciones?
Para Hugo Chávez, que los países integrantes de la OEA continúen sin ni siquiera registrar sus violaciones a la Carta Democrática Interamericana.
Para el presidente Uribe, no arriesgar el provechoso comercio hacia Venezuela reservándose las pruebas de la colaboración del régimen venezolano con el grupo narco terrorista de la FARC hasta que a Colombia le convengadevelarlas, como cuando amenazó con llevarlas a la Corte Penal Internacional obligando a que Chávez retirara la fuerza militar que había movilizado a la frontera con Colombia.
Pero para el Presidente Barack Obama la normalización implicaría llegar a un entendimiento con un régimen unipersonal y militarizado, que ha aprovechado la impopularidad del señor Bush como excusa para esconder su antiamericanismo,
y que colabora con cuanta organización enfrente a su país.
La única forma de superar las diferencias que separan a los Estados Unidos con el régimen venezolano, sería que el gobierno norteamericano esté de acuerdo en darle rienda suelta al régimen para que continúe promoviendo la política de intervención
subversiva en nuestra región, y convierta definitivamente a Venezuela en un auténtico santuario de movimientos terroristas.
Es evidente que los norteamericanos escogieron a un nuevo presidente, pero no escogieron renunciar a los principios que fundamentan su democracia, ni tampoco decidieron asociarse a regímenes que representen una amenaza real a sus intereses
y a su seguridad nacional.
Por su parte, Chávez pensará que “normalizar las relaciones” implica que Obama, por ejemplo, anule el juicio en Miami, que revela la inmundicia del manejo de los recursos de los venezolanos por parte del jefe del Estado.
Los asesores de Obama no se engañan y conocen que el régimen venezolano ha convertido su antagonismo en la máxima prioridad tanto de su política doméstica como la exterior. Saben que Chávez es un enemigo activísimo de todo lo que representa la democracia de su país, y saben que se conduce a lo largo de América Latina a contravía de los valores inherentes del país del norte.
Pero el obstáculo que hace inviable la normalización con los Estados Unidos es el propio Hugo Chávez, quien para mantener su posicionamiento nacional e internacional necesita a Estados Unidos como su enemigo.
Sin ese país se quedaría boxeando con su sombra y tendría que enfrentar la realidad: a pesar de haber recibido durante su mandato ochocientos mil millones de dólares, gracias a la incompetencia y la corrupción de su régimen ha llevado a Venezuela cerca del colapso.
No sorprenderá que en las primeras confrontaciones que Hugo Chávez tenga con el gobierno norteamericano volverá con sus insultos y calificará al presidente Obama de “Tío Tom”, término sacado de la novela de Harriet Beecher Stowe y que se utiliza en EE.UU. para insultar a los ciudadanos negros que se muestran serviles con los blancos importantes.
Declaración Final de la Reunión en Trinidad y Tobago
En el enlace que he colocado arriba ustedes pueden leer el documento terminado de la Reunión que los Jefes de Estado de las Américas y el Caribe realizaron en Puerto España, Capital de Trinidad y Tobago.
The Tyranny of Expediency
The Tyranny of Expediency
[Analysis] A counterfeit democracy is a dangerous negotiation partner
by
Alfredo Ascanio (askain)
Published 2009-04-21 11:24 (KST)
Edited by Carlos Arturo Serrano
Neo-dictatorship is a form of government disguised as democracy whose constitution is only respected when convenient. The difference between a formal dictatorship under Fidel Castro or Augusto Pinochet and neo-dictatorship is that formal dictatorships concentrate all powers with no tolerance zone. A neo-dictatorship concentrates power in a single party and political elite, doing away with political pluralism and the rule of law, but because this model needs to appear democratic, it allows for a small margin of tolerance. When the tolerable space is altered, totalitarianism appears, with full State control over institutions.
The main examples of this political model are Peronism, General Juan Velasco Alvarado of Peru and Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. In these regimes, the nimbus of admission and recognition that characterizes negotiation is removed, and negotiation becomes just an instrument, usable by angels or villains. Our presuppositions about negotiation are removed once we look closer.
In an ideal world...
To resolve conflicts while avoiding the use of force, it is said, one must negotiate, which requires that both parties are willing to compromise. Neither one can expect to win everything. If both negotiate in good faith, they can always find a fair solution. During a multifaceted conflict, the less controversial issues should be solved first: agreement will lead to further agreement, even though each side has an immovable minimum position. A negotiator should never make a threat he won't carry out.
Without common interest there is nothing to negotiate for; without conflict, nothing to negotiate about. Perhaps one should distinguish between two kinds of common interests: an identical interest in a single arrangement or object that benefits both parties and that can be brought about only by joining forces, like the US-Mexico agreement to fight drug and weapon traffic; and a complementary interest in an exchange of different objects. In this case, the negotiation of an explicit quid pro quo might have given rise to new demands and invited more haggling and tugging than the arrangement, which the parties never discussed and never explicitly settled.
The deep hostility between countries like the US and Cuba makes formal talks less likely to harmonize the policy of openness to remove the old trade embargo, especially while still having a strong formal dictatorship.
Nonetheless, negotiation plays an important role in formalizing turning points in international relations, in catalyzing or at least clarifying changes that were caused by tacit bargaining or other processes, and in working out those finer shades in new arrangements that the brute interplay of latent strength cannot define.
The real political animal
Negotiation with a neo-dictatorship is more complicated because this model of government has not decided whether it is democratic or authoritarian. The relationship between the US and Venezuela is an example. Both leaders differ in behavior and morals. Chavez seeks friendship with cynical ways, which is highly dangerous as the power of oil makes any balance harder to achieve.
Neo-dictatorships can suddenly shift their alliances, so their power is highly unstable. Chavez finds himself in a precarious position: his friends in ALBA, Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua, were prepared to veto the decision of the 5th Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago.
But how to do this if Chavez wants to be friends with Obama? Very easy. Chavez is a real political animal. He can turn his back on his friends from ALBA to negotiate a more convenient deal: that Obama recognizes him as a leader. And that is precisely the danger of negotiating with a neo-dictator.
domingo, abril 19, 2009
Un BLOG MEXICANO de los buenos...
El BLOG mexicano "Abracadabra" tiene muchas cosas que contar...entre esas cosas una buena receta para la Semana Santa (la Cuaresma) con Chile grande o sea: Chiles chipotles con relleno dulce de plátano macho y otras menudencias...
sábado, abril 18, 2009
Chávez y Obama se dan la mano
Chávez y Obama se dan la mano
por
Carlos Chirinos Vásquez
BBC Mundo, enviado especial a Trinidad y Tobago
La imagen de la Cumbre ha sido el apretón de manos entre los presidentes Obama y Chávez.
Al inicio de la sesión de apertura de la V Cumbre de las Américas en Trinidad y Tobago, el presidente Barack Obama se acercó a saludar al venezolano Hugo Chávez en el primer encuentro -si bien informal- que se da entre ambos líderes.
Al responderle el saludo a Obama, el mandatario venezolano le dijo: "Con esta mano saludé a Bush hace ocho años. Yo quiero ser tu amigo", según la información ofrecida por el gobierno venezolano.Ojalá Obama sea el primer presidente de un nuevo Estados Unidos
Según un funcionario de la Casa Blanca -que estuvo presente en el momento en que ambos presidentes se encontraron- Obama se acerco a Chávez y le dijo: "Quisiera presentarme, yo soy Barack Obama".
Luego, el estadounidense habría respondido con una sonrisa a las palabras del venezolano.
Momento histórico
La fotografía del fugaz encuentro entre los dos líderes fue distribuida por el propio Ministerio de Información y Comunicaciones de Venezuela (MINCI) en su página de internet, que lo calificó como "histórico".
El presidente Obama también saludó al presidente de Boliva, Evo Morales.
Al finalizar el acto inaugural de la cumbre, el presidente Chávez ofreció unas breves declaraciones a la prensa en la puerta del hotel donde se realiza el evento:
"Nos dimos la mano como todo caballero y era previsible que así ocurriera y yo agradezco el gesto de haberse acercado (...) Creo que hay que tomar nota del gesto, de la palabra. Ojalá Obama sea el primer presidente de un nuevo Estados Unidos", agregó.
Las fotografías de Obama y Chávez sonrientes y distendidos han sido, hasta ahora, las imágenes más distribuidas desde el inicio de la reunión hemisférica.
Estas "postales" de Trinidad y Tobago disipan los temores de quiénes presagiaban una cumbre de enfrentamientos entre EE.UU. y la región, como sucedió en la reunión previa realizada en Mar del Plata, Argentina, en 2005.
Al inicio de la Cumbre de Trinidad y Tobago, Obama también tuvo gestos similares con los presidentes de Bolivia, Evo Morales, y de Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, dos países aliados de Venezuela que han tenido algunos roces diplomáticos con Washington.
BBC MUNDO y la Quita Cumbre de Las Américas
Un reportaje completo sobre todo lo que pasó y está pasando en la 5ta. Cumbre de las América en Trinidad y Tobago.
Learning the hard way
Learning the hard way
Mar 26th 2009
From The Economist print edition
Barack Obama may at last be getting a grip. But he still needs to show more leadership, at home and abroad
HILLARY CLINTON’S most effective quip, in her long struggle with Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination last year, was that the Oval Office is no place for on-the-job training. It went to the heart of the nagging worry about the silver-tongued young senator from Illinois: that he lacked even the slightest executive experience, and that in his brief career he had never really stood up to powerful interests, whether in his home city of Chicago or in the wider world. Might Mrs Clinton have been right about her foe?
Not altogether. In foreign policy in particular Mr Obama has already done some commendable things. He has held out a sincere hand to Iran; he has ordered Guantánamo closed within a year; he has set himself firmly against torture. He has, as the world and this newspaper wanted, taken a less strident tone in dealing with friends and rivals alike.
But at home Mr Obama has had a difficult start. His performance has been weaker than those who endorsed his candidacy, including this newspaper, had hoped. Many of his strongest supporters—liberal columnists, prominent donors, Democratic Party stalwarts—have started to question him. As for those not so beholden, polls show that independent voters again prefer Republicans to Democrats, a startling reversal of fortune in just a few weeks. Mr Obama’s once-celestial approval ratings are about where George Bush’s were at this stage in his awful presidency. Despite his resounding electoral victory, his solid majorities in both chambers of Congress and the obvious goodwill of the bulk of the electorate, Mr Obama has seemed curiously feeble.
Empty posts, weak policies
There are two main reasons for this. The first is Mr Obama’s failure to grapple as fast and as single-mindedly with the economy as he should have done. His stimulus package, though huge, was subcontracted to Congress, which did a mediocre job: too much of the money will arrive too late to be of help in the current crisis. His budget, though in some ways more honest than his predecessor’s, is wildly optimistic. And he has taken too long to produce his plan for dealing with the trillions of dollars of toxic assets which fester on banks’ balance-sheets.
The failure to staff the Treasury is a shocking illustration of administrative drift. There are 23 slots at the department that need confirmation by the Senate, and only two have been filled. This is not the Senate’s fault. Mr Obama has made a series of bad picks of people who have chosen or been forced to withdraw; and it was only this week that he announced his candidates for two of the department’s four most senior posts. Filling such jobs is always a tortuous business in America, but Mr Obama has made it harder by insisting on a level of scrutiny far beyond anything previously attempted. Getting the Treasury team in place ought to have been his first priority.
Second, Mr Obama has mishandled his relations with both sides in Congress. Though he campaigned as a centrist and promised an era of post-partisan government, that’s not how he has behaved. His stimulus bill attracted only three Republican votes in the Senate and none in the House. This bodes ill for the passage of more difficult projects, such as his big plans for carbon-emissions control and health-care reform. Keeping those promises will soon start to bedevil the administration. The Republicans must take their share of the blame for the breakdown. But if Mr Obama had done a better job of selling his package, and had worked harder at making sure that Republicans were included in drafting it, they would have found it more difficult to oppose his plans.
If Mr Obama cannot work with the Republicans, he needs to be certain that he controls his own party. Unfortunately, he seems unable to. Put bluntly, the Democrats are messing him around. They are pushing pro-trade-union legislation (notably a measure to get rid of secret ballots) even though he doesn’t want them to do so; they have been roughing up the bankers even though it makes his task of fixing the economy much harder; they have stuffed his stimulus package and his appropriations bill with pork, even though this damages him and his party in the eyes of the electorate. Worst of all, he is letting them get away with it.
Lead, dammit
There are some signs that Mr Obama’s administration is learning. This week the battered treasury secretary, Tim Geithner, has at last come up with a detailed plan to rescue the banks (see article and article). Its success is far from guaranteed, and the mood of Congress and the public has soured to the point where, should this plan fail, getting another one off the drawing-board will be exceedingly hard. But the plan at least demonstrates the administration’s acceptance that it must work with the bankers, instead of riding the wave of popular opinion against them, if it is to repair America’s economy. And it’s not just in the domestic arena that Mr Obama has demonstrated his willingness to learn: on Iraq, he has intelligently recalibrated his views, coming up with a plan for withdrawal that seeks to consolidate the gains in Iraq while limiting the costs to America.
But Mr Obama has a long way to travel if he is to serve his country—and the world—as he should. Take the G20 meeting in London, to which he will head at the end of next week. The most important task for this would-be institution is to set itself firmly against protectionism at a time when most of its members are engaged in a game of creeping beggar-thy-neighbour. Yet how can Mr Obama lead the fight when he has just pandered to America’s unions by sparking a minor trade war with Mexico? And how can he set a new course for NATO at its 60th-anniversary summit a few days later if he is appeasing his party with talk of leaving Afghanistan?
In an accomplished press conference this week, Mr Obama reminded the world what an impressive politician he can be. He has a capacity to inspire that is unmatched abroad or at home. He holds a strong hand when it comes to the Democrats, many of whom owe their seats to his popularity at last year’s election. Now he must play it.
martes, abril 14, 2009
WIND power (energía de viento)
The American Wind Energy Association released its annual industry report yesterday.
by
Jeff Siegel
According to the report, in 2008, the U.S. surpassed Germany as the country with the largest amount of installed wind power capacity. This, after more than 8,500 megawatts of new wind power increased the nation's cumulative total to more than 25,300 MW - representing a growth of about 50 percent.
Based on this growth rate, and assuming long-term policy support, this puts the U.S. on a trajectory to generate 20 percent of our electricity from wind energy by 2030. This is a massive jump, based on the 1.25 percent that was generated by installed wind projects at the end of 2008 - and a massive opportunity for investors.
This latest report shows GE continuing to run the turbine show, boasting 43 percent of newly installed capacity in 2008. Vestas (CO:VWS) came in second, Siemens (NYSE:SI) in third, and Suzlon (NSE:SUZLON) and Gamesa (MCE:GAM) rounding out fourth and fifth.
As far as developers are concerned, NextEra Energy (which used to be FPL Energy) owns the most wind energy assets, boasting a total of 6,290 MW - or about 25 percent of all installed capacity.
EL BLOG en Houston, Texas
Este es el BLOG de Askain en la ciudad de Houston (TEXAS), es decir el BLOG está ubicado en el principal periódico de esa ciudad texana.
lunes, abril 13, 2009
US eases Cuban travel, money restraints
US eases Cuban travel, money restraints
By ROBERT BURNS AP National Security Writer © 2009 The Associated Press
April 13, 2009, 7:52PM
WASHINGTON — In a measured break with a half-century of U.S. policy toward communist Cuba, the Obama administration lifted restrictions Monday on Cuban-Americans who want to travel and send money to their island homeland.
In a further gesture of openness, U.S. telecommunications firms were freed to seek business there, too. But the broader U.S. trade embargo remained in place.
The White House portrayed its changes, which fulfilled one of President Barack Obama's campaign promises, as a path to promoting personal freedom in one of the few remaining communist nations. They also marked another major step away from the foreign policy priorities of the Bush administration.
But the moves fell far short of the more drastic policy adjustments that some — including Republican Sen. Richard Lugar — have argued are required to promote U.S. interests in Latin America and to bring about change in Cuba. For most Americans, Cuba remains the only country in the world their government prohibits them from visiting — a barrier to potential travelers as well as to the Cuban tourist industry that would like to see them.
Cubans welcomed the changes but said more should be done.
"It's help that the people really need," Fermina Gonzalez, a 46-year-old housewife in the leafy Havana neighborhood of Vedado, said of the ending of limits on money sent by Cuban-Americans. "Right now, we have to work lots of jobs just to make ends meet."
But few Cubans expect Obama to end the trade embargo or allow American tourists to visit the island without limits.
"He should do more and lift travel restrictions for all Americans," said Alberto Sal, a 68-year-old retiree. "Until he does that, I don't think he's doing much."
Lifting or substantially easing the economic embargo, as set forth in the Cuban Assets Control Regulations and administered by the Treasury Department, would require legislative action by Congress. The White House made no mention of any intention to seek such changes; Obama said as a presidential candidate that the embargo was a form of leverage to press for democratic reforms in Cuba.
Julia Sweig, director of Latin studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, described Obama's changes as "teensy, weensy" and said they appear to be driven more by domestic political calculations that by foreign policy considerations.
"This is a cautious first step by a president whose political advisers are looking at the Florida electoral vote," she said in a telephone interview, "and who are not looking at this as a matter of foreign policy. That's the big problem with Cuba policy. We have a policy toward Miami and not toward Havana."
Sweig added, however, that Obama's decision to authorize more telecommunications links with Cuba was a "potentially significant opening," particularly if the Cuban government follows through and allows those connections.
Jose Miguel Vivanco of Human Rights Watch welcomed the Cuba announcement but said more should be done.
"If President Obama is serious about promoting change in Cuba, this executive order must be part of a larger shift away from the U.S.'s unilateral approach toward the Cuban government," Vivanco said.
Taking the other side, three Democratic lawmakers wrote in a letter to Obama on Monday that his decisions would have "devastating consequences."
They said the Cuban government takes 30 cents of every dollar in U.S. remittances that enters the country as a usury fee.
"This income facilitates the regime's finance of its repressive state security apparatus," they wrote. The letter was signed by Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida and Albio Sires and Robert Andrews of New Jersey. They recommended a more calibrated approach: doubling the amount of allowable money transfers to family members in Cuba rather than allowing unlimited transfers.
American policy toward Cuba has been frozen since 1962, when the Kennedy administration broadened a partial trade embargo imposed by the Eisenhower administration the previous year. The original aim was to bring down Fidel Castro's Marxist government at a time when U.S.-backed exiles mounted the failed Bay of Pigs invasion and Soviet missiles in Cuba pushed the world close to nuclear war.
Sporadic congressional efforts to end the embargo since then have failed, largely due to the political influence of powerful Cuban exiles, mostly in Florida, who are determined to isolate Cuba, strangle its economy and force Castro out.
Castro, now 82, ceded the presidency to his brother last year due to illness. Raul Castro, 77, shows no sign of making any fundamental changes.
The White House portrayed the lifting of travel restrictions and money transfers to family members in Cuba — coupled with the telecommunications changes — as steps to bridge the gap among divided Cuban families.
"All who embrace core democratic values long for a Cuba that respects the basic human, political and economic rights of all of its citizens," White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said in announcing the decision. "President Obama believes the measure he has taken today will help make that goal a reality."
It had been known for more than a week that the White House would announce the Cuba changes in advance of Obama's attendance this weekend at a Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago. Cuba is excluded from that gathering of 34 heads of government, but a number of participants are expected to use the session as an opportunity to press the U.S. to improve relations with Havana.
There has been a growing chorus of congressional advocates for change in U.S. policy toward Cuba. In February, Sen. Lugar, R-Ind., issued a report based on a Senate Foreign Relations Committee staff visit to Havana that called for a repeal of the family travel and money transfer restrictions.
Lugar's report also urged congressional action to remove all U.S. travel restrictions, not just those for Cuban-Americans. Further, it advocated lifting travel restrictions on Cuban diplomats in Washington, who are not allowed to journey outside the capital area. It said this would encourage a reciprocal lifting of Cuban restrictions on U.S. diplomats, improving the U.S. government's ability to understand more fully the conditions that exist on the entire island.
Separately on Monday, a U.S. religious freedom watchdog group said it had been forced to call off a fact-finding trip after the Cuban government did not issue visas to its delegation. The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom said the visas had been applied for weeks earlier and it had received no explanation for why they were not granted.
___
Associated Press writer Will Weissert contributed from Cuba.
Obama travels aimed at re-engaging hemisphere
Obama travels aimed at re-engaging hemisphere
By BEN FELLER Associated Press Writer © 2009 The Associated Press
April 13, 2009, 9:16PM
WASHINGTON — The White House on Monday cast Barack Obama's first presidential trip south of the border as a chance to revitalize relations with an entire hemisphere of nations.
Obama on Thursday is traveling to Mexico City, a clear signal of support for President Felipe Calderon as the U.S. and Mexico grapple with the deadly flow of drugs and weapons. Obama is then spending Friday through Sunday in the twin-island Caribbean nation of Trinidad and Tobago for the Summit of the Americas, a gathering of 34 Western Hemisphere nations.
"The perception coming up from the south (is) that in recent years the United States has turned its attention elsewhere, has neglected its relationships in this part of the world," said Jeffrey Davidow, Obama's principal adviser for the summit, told reporters Monday night.
"Whether one agrees with that perception or not, it certainly is a very strongly felt perception," he said. "And I think this summit will give him the opportunity to meet with all the heads of state, listen to them, exchange views, and come away with new ideas."
Cuba, as an undemocratic nation, is excluded from the summit. But its relationship with the United States and its role in the hemisphere are sure to be discussed. Obama on Monday lifted restrictions on Cuban-Americans who want to travel to and send money to relatives on the communist island, a move promised in his campaign and timed ahead of the summit to help set a productive tone.
In previewing the trip, White House aides said they could not yet provide details about which leaders Obama would be meeting with one-on-one while in Trinidad. They also said Obama would be heading to the summit with concrete proposals but declined to name what they were.
Instead, the White House spoke of priority themes: rallying support for bottom-up economic reforms, particularly those that help the "poorest of the poor;" working with other nations to expand renewable energy and reduce global warming; and improving public safety.
Shaking the global recession is the dominant topic on the agenda.
The timing comes as many nations in the hemisphere have felt the crushing effects of an economic swoon after years of relative growth. Analysts say the summit is unlikely to yield any big breakthroughs but could set a new tone to relations, particularly given Obama's popularity in the region and his promises of multilateralism.
The first and only country Obama will visit on his way to the summit is Mexico. His administration so far has made a notable, public show of diplomacy toward the country.
"It's a message of admiration for the courageous steps that President Calderon has undertaken," said Denis McDonough, one of Obama's senior foreign policy advisers. "It is meant to send a signal of respect, mutual respect with our Mexican neighbors."
As Mexico cracks down on organized crime, violence among the drug cartels, their rivals and soldiers have led to thousands of deaths and crime that has spilled across the border into the U.S.
Obama's administration has pledged more help, and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has said America's "insatiable" demand for drugs has helped fuel the problem.
Other tense bilateral issues loom.
Mexico has slapped tariffs on nearly 90 U.S. products in retaliation for a U.S. decision to cancel a cross-border program that gave Mexican truckers access north of the border.
McDonough said the administration is working with Congress and Mexico on a resolution, but added: "I think it's premature to anticipate a very specific announcement on that."
On comprehensive immigration reform, which collapsed in Congress during President George W. Bush's administration, White House aides say Obama remains committed to it. Obama, already dealing with an enormous agenda, is expected to try to begin an immigration effort this year.
Dan Restrepo, the senior director for Western Hemisphere affairs, said immigration and the treatment of immigrants is important to Obama and Calderon. He did not answer whether it would be on the agenda for the two leaders' meetings on Thursday in Mexico.
El Perro de la Familia de OBAMA se llama BO
New York, NY [April 13, 2009] – The American Kennel Club congratulates the Obama family on the anticipated arrival of their 6-month-old, AKC registered Portuguese Water Dog, Amigo’s New Hope, affectionately known as "Bo." Bo was bred by Art and Martha Stern, long-time breeders who reside near Dallas, TX, and is a littermate of Senator Ted Kennedy’s pup Cappy. The first dog ever owned by the Obama family, as well the nation’s official "First Dog," this new presidential pup will not only leave a mark on the Obamas’ lives but shine a spotlight on dogs and the importance of responsible dog ownership around the world.
BOYD, Texas — The next resident of the White House has a Texas past.The 6-month-old Portuguese water dog that the Obama girls are naming Bo was bred in Texas.A statement today from the American Kennel Club says the group congratulates the Obama family on the anticipated arrival of Bo, whose registered name is Amigo's New Hope.
AKC says Bo was bred by Art and Martha Stern, who run Amigo Portuguese Water Dogs in Boyd, about 35 miles northwest of Fort Worth.President Barack Obama's two daughters have waited months for a dog promised to them by their parents.
Bo is a gift from Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, D-Mass., who has several Portuguese water dogs. AKC says Bo is a littermate of Kennedy's puppy, Cappy.
BOYD, Texas — The next resident of the White House has a Texas past.The 6-month-old Portuguese water dog that the Obama girls are naming Bo was bred in Texas.A statement today from the American Kennel Club says the group congratulates the Obama family on the anticipated arrival of Bo, whose registered name is Amigo's New Hope.
AKC says Bo was bred by Art and Martha Stern, who run Amigo Portuguese Water Dogs in Boyd, about 35 miles northwest of Fort Worth.President Barack Obama's two daughters have waited months for a dog promised to them by their parents.
Bo is a gift from Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, D-Mass., who has several Portuguese water dogs. AKC says Bo is a littermate of Kennedy's puppy, Cappy.
Suscribirse a:
Entradas (Atom)