sábado, junio 27, 2009

Twitter's businnes potential and the good article

The fact is,over the past few months, I've come to love Twitter.Indeed,if Twitter continues to expand at its curent rate,it may well become a high-value way for companies to help brand themselves and microtarget consumer groups,as well as another tool for managers to interact with peoples,and vice versa.

But Twitter's businnes potential doesn't explain why we tap away in 140-character bursts every so often. In fact,askain(that would be @askain2 in the lingo of Tweet) started tweeting for good old-fashioned marketing purpose.Askain had a book coming out, about hotel evaluation projec.It proved to be excellent advice.

Best of all,Twitter helps you test-and improve-your marketing and ideas.We tweet because to feel more connected in a disconnected world,and to communicate with book's readers.

"Why learn to write? that sounds like a foolish question, but before passing it by too lightly, think it over. It does not mean penmanship, nor does it mean simply the casting of words, phrases, and sentences into paragraphs.

But it does mean this: Can you write effectively? Can you influence another person through writing or speaking?

In whatever line of work you engage, you may have the best ideas in the world, but if you cannot write them down or explain them by word of mouth so that people will understand and be influenced by them, you will probably not accomplish much.

The average person believes that writing for publication is a mysterious sort of thing. People are born writers, it is said. But like almost any other line of work, very, very much can be learned. Some individuals show more aptitude for it than others, but nearly everyone with a working knowledge of English can accomplish something. And there are few lines in which effort properly applied will show such quick and tangible results.

This article deals with the magazine article. Most important of all, this article aims to show you how to dig down to the bottom of a subject, assimilate large amounts of material quickly and readily, and hand the material over to the reader in an interesting form. It will show you how to secure crisp, well-defined ideas, and how to keep your writing from becoming commonplace. You are to learn to write interestingly. These things will be invaluable to you, no matter what line of work you may later take up.

The Idea

Newspaper reporters often gravitate into the business of writing for magazines because they have this sense of knowing what will make a good story. In newspaper work, this is known as a “nose for news,” or news sense. In magazine writing, as you will learn later, this same sense exists, but in a much broader way.

Editors decline essays, articles, and papers submitted to them because they do not mean anything to the great mass of the people in the country today.

What interests people? To insure acceptance, a manuscript must fit a particular magazine or newspaper; that is, it must some appeal to that publication’s readers. So we are going to simplify this matter by dividing articles into four main types:

1. Articles that deal with subjects that are unique, new, out of the ordinary, or unusually interesting.
2. Articles the primary purpose of which is to impart useful knowledge.
3. Articles concerning or written by interesting personalities.
4. Articles that depend for their success not so much on subject matter as on the way in which they are written.

Whether in writing, it is the idea that counts. This article deals with the rather simple matter of writing articles. But before we get through, we are going to learn, rather definitely, just how to discover an Idea for an article. Then we shall learn how to develop it, and finally how to inveigle some unsuspecting editor into sending us a good congratulation.

The “nose for news or article” is the first requisite of a good newspaper reporter and is the first requisite of the reporter writer. This is the old example of the fact that a dog biting a man would not be news, but a man biting a dog would make a firs-rate item for a daily newspaper.

The articles that are easiest to sell are those that “feature” something or somebody, or aid in accomplishing something. The article, which deals with abstract ideas, usually falls down because it lacks “backbone”.

The first task of any writer is to secure the reader’s attention. His second task is to hold that interest throughout the article. And, very important, the writer must remember that the same things that catch the reader’s attention when he opens a newspaper are naturally those things that catch the editor’s attention when he sifts a manuscript out of the morning mail.

There are four ways by which this reader attention is secured: (1) by the title of the article: (2) by the photographs accompanying it ;(3) by the name of the author; (4) by the beginning of the article, or the lead, as it is called.
If the attention is not secured, all is lost. And the article has failed in its purpose. Keep in mind the reader.

Shorter paragraphs and vigor

The tendency today is toward shorter paragraphs. Some well-known editorial writers and others go so far as to make practically every sentence a paragraph. The main thing to remember is that paragraphs should not be drawn out to too great length. Break tem up.

Writing today is much more vigorous than the writing of a few generations ago.

If you have anything to say, say it without fear or apology or imitation of fine writing. And as far as possible, use the active rather than the passive voice. This will insure greater vigor and choice of proper words.

Ver the Social Media Guide en :
  • Roosevelt and the Great Depression

    “No one can guarantee that policymakers will take advantage of the lessons of history” with this sentence Gene Smiley finished his book about the Great Depression in the decade of 30.

    This history demonstrates that in a society complex and varied, as America is impossible to implement a radical pacification and collectivize the country as well.

    “Roosevelt was not a deep thinker-he was a politician”, said Smiley. Roosevelt understood little about how the economic functioned and little about economic ideas. He appreciated common sense, but common sense is not a good tool to implement complex economic policies, it serves only to negotiate and manipulate public opinion.

    Roosevelt sought help at Columbia University and he was supported by radical planners: former journalist Louis M. Howe, Frances Perkins, Harry Hopkins, Raymond Moley, Adolf Berle or Rexford Tugwell an economics professor and more radical planner and collectivist type of national economic planning.

    The first action of Roosevelt and his advisers was to control the banks and all foreign exchange transactions. The devaluation of the dollar by nearly 70 per cent tended to raise both the prices of imported goods and the price of U.S. exports.

    Another measure was to achieve a participatory democracy at the grassroots with the support of the people. But that was incompatible with the coactive projects to reduce production and raise prices. The experiment decentralizations were little better, because little power and decisions realizable as large corporations.

    The radical ideas of control and a project that was to transfer essentially income from no farmers to farmers was not the expected adjustment. The same happened to the industrial recovery. There was a conflict with the relief work objectives of the project and reduce production and increase the incomes of the workers who consumed more and saved less, but this bill was unconstitutional.

    Hugh Johnson, a representative of the military in the war industries of World War I, supported by radical planners, wanted to control the big companies to enter at the social projects. These advisers had little confidence that a competitive market system could coordinate economic activities and restore full employment in the economy with the codes of fair competition, but the representatives of the worker and the consumers did not accept these ideas.

    The other project is called the National Recovery Administration codes with the goal of a relationship between the companies’ goals and the social objective.

    General Johnson did not understand that the basic goal of large corporations is profit. This adviser believed that if the companies did not support the NRA codes these companies would be unpatriotic, which was an insult to the entrepreneurs.

    NRA Codes project was criticized by the CEOs of corporations. The NRA’s goal was to cartelize American industry and reduce the ability of independent firms to decide on prices, production, and investment.

    Then August 21, 1934 Johnson resigned and losing the support of President Roosevelt. The President attempted to reorganize the NRA (National Recovery Administration) and the anti-trust program. But no group received what is really wanted and recovery aborted, 1935-1939. In 1937 the State of the Union address, the president hinted at a resurrection of the NRA.In June the Senate Judiciary Committee reported out the bill with a recommendation so negative that no attempt was made to resurrect it.

    The battle over Roosevelt’s court-packing bill consumed an entire congressional session and split the Democratic Party. It cost the president some of his support and helped destroy his aura of invincibility. In the spring of 1937 many observers had argued that a contraction was remote because the economy back to where it has been in 1934 and shook everyone’s confidence in the economy and the New Deal.

    What caused the depression within a depression? There were, in fact, two different primary sources that were jointly responsible for this new contraction: the actions of the Federal Reserve System, and the rapid rise in wage rates and labor costs during the great unionization drives in early 1937.By the fall of 1937 the profits of manufacturing firms had fallen sharply and were expected to fall even further-and the stock market crashed. Then the NRA was declared unconstitutional.

    The main problems were with time deposits, and insurance or provide temporary relief for the mortgage debts and securities markets.

    With regulating the massive unemployment, many families depend on government relief. Federal money grants were not high, and also the use of “parity” prices with production and marketing controls reduced supply quotas.

    Roosevelt wanted the farm program and other program is voluntary and the administration is decentralized so that farmers themselves would determine its direction and magnitude (a “grass-root democracy). In the 1930s the Roosevelt administration abruptly and dramatically altered the institutional framework which private business decisions were made -not just once but several times. The effect was to retard the recovery from the Great Depression of 1929-1933.

    Conventional economic theory did not seem capable of explaining why the depression had occurred or why was so long and severe. But the experience led an English economist to propose a new theory to explain the depression and how to get out of it. The name of the economist was John Maynard Keynes.

    Keynes took a different approach. Rather than considering individual markets, he examined aggregate sector of the economy-specifically the household sector, the business sector, the government sector, and the rest-o-the world. Aggregate consumer, aggregate investment, and aggregate governments spending.

    Keynes argued that the key to understanding the performances of the economy was to determine why aggregate demands was sometimes insufficient to employ all the economy’s resources. To do that, one had to look Gross National Product (GNP) and Gross National Income (GNY).

    Keynes argued that consumption spending depended on income; consumptions spending alone could not determine the level of income and the economic activity. Investment was determined by the expected profitability of new capital. And this depended primarily on interest rates, expected prices, and other costs of what was produced.

    Government spending, on the other hand, was determined by social priorities. Because investment did not depend directly on income it had the power to determine the level of income. If investment spending fell -because, for example, business leaders became more pessimistic about expected profits, and GNP and GNY would decline.

    In severe depression, Keynes argued, lower interest rates did little to spur additional investment spending. The Federal Government could do this directly by increasing aggregate demand to begging increasing GNP and could do this without increasing taxes.

    The decreased taxes would lead to additional disposable income for consumers and business and thus to increases in their spending (fiscal policy). Monetary policy is the other half of the twin tools of macroeconomic policy.

    This provides some hope that we have learned something from the 1930s. Finally, the 1930s are not a testimonial to the fundamental problems of market-oriented economies. What failed in the 1930s were governments and its contradictory policies.

    La Violación en el campo de Carabobo...

    Hoy 24-06-2009, escupieron la Memoria de aquellos Valientes Hombres que un día como hoy hace 188 años fueron protagonistas de la Batalla crucial que concedería definitivamente La Independencia de Nuestra Patria, en esta Batalla murieron los jefes de la Segunda y Tercera División, (Manuel Cedeño y Ambrosio Plaza), el Jefe del Batallón Británico, (Thomas Ildeston Feriar) y un gran número de sus oficiales y tropa, Pedro Camejo, (El célebre Negro Primero), Julián Mellado Jefe del Escuadrón de Dragones por nombrar algunos de los tantos que dieron su vida .

    Los únicos que por derecho ganado en combate pueden desfilar en ese glorioso campo es el EJERCITO BRITÁNICO por que fue ganado con una gran valentía y sangre fría digna de su origen, rodilla en tierra, soportaron cada una de las cargas españolas, perdiendo a su comandante Thomas Farriar y a 17 de sus oficiales superiores, pero permitiendo a los “Bravos de Apure”, liderados por Páez, reorganizarse y contraatacar de forma efectiva. Al terminar la acción, Páez recibe en el propio campo de batalla el más alto rango en la milicia, el de General en Jefe, por su acción personal y la de su batallón las cuales fueron decisivas en esta victoria.

    En este campo de batalla el alto mando patriota dispone que el batallón de la Legión Británica se distinga con el nombre inmortal de “Carabobo” y veinte días después Bolívar concede a todos los legionarios la Estrella de Libertadores de Venezuela.

    Estos sacrificados hombres contribuyen así a la gloria y la existencia de su patria adoptiva. Pero hoy muchos años después, desfilaron los herederos de las tropas Cubanas que intentaron invadir Venezuela por la Playa de MACHURUCUTO, pero que hoy lo hacen abiertamente y con la complacencia del Estado. Desfilar en Carabobo es un PRIVILEGIO y más que eso, es un HONOR. ESO SE GANA NO SE REGALA.

    viernes, junio 26, 2009

    La Fed y la Economía de USA

    La Fed decide mantener el curso ante los signos de estabilización en la economía

    Sudeep Reddy y Geoffrey T. Smith

    La Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos (Fed), frente a una economía que muestra señales de vida pero que se sigue contrayendo, decidió no reforzar sus planes para estimular el crecimiento mediante la compra de bonos del Tesoro el mismo día en que el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) inyectó 442.000 millones de euros (US$622.000 millones) a sus bancos para apuntalar la economía de la zona euro.

    Al finalizar una reunión de dos días, la Fed reiteró que su tasa de interés de referencia continuará cerca de cero por "un período prolongado". También afirmó que seguirá adelante con sus planes para comprar hasta US$300.000 millones en bonos del Tesoro a largo plazo por unos meses más y hasta US$1,25 billones (millones de millones) en valores respaldados por hipotecas hasta fines de año. La entidad, no obstante, aclaró que "seguirá evaluando el momento indicado y los montos totales" de las compras.

    El banco central estadounidense, que hace frente a una serie de presiones complejas, resaltó que "el ritmo de contracción económica se está moderando" y, en un notable cambio de tono, indicó que estaba menos preocupado por los riesgos de una deflación que a principios de año. La Fed también predijo que "la inflación seguirá bajo control por algún tiempo", a pesar de las preocupaciones de que el alza en el precio del petróleo y el alto endeudamiento fiscal provocarán presiones inflacionarias. El banco central señaló que la economía estadounidense "probablemente permanezca débil durante cierto tiempo", afectada por la caída del consumo y los despidos y recortes de inversión de las empresas.

    Los datos económicos más recientes dejan al descubierto las señales contradictorias que está recibiendo la Fed. El Departamento de Comercio informó que los pedidos de bienes manufacturados que duran tres años o más aumentaron 1,8% en mayo por segundo mes consecutivo y un indicador de inversión empresarial repuntó. Pero las ventas de casas recién construidas cayó 0,8% en mayo y acumulan un descenso de 32,8% frente a los primeros cinco meses del año pasado.
    Los inversionistas parecieron estar levemente desilusionados por la falta de nuevas medidas de la Fed.

    El Promedio Industrial Dow Jones, que había subido más de 50 puntos a principios de la tarde, cayó tras el anuncio y cerró en 8.299,86 unidades, una baja de 23 puntos. Los precios de los bonos del Tesoro de EE.UU. también declinaron. El retorno en los bonos a 10 años subió levemente a 3,69%, aún bastante por debajo del nivel de 4% que alcanzó este mes.

    Un BCE más cauto

    En Europa, mientras tanto, el BCE les ofreció a sus bancos una cantidad ilimitada de préstamos a un año a 1%, su tasa actual. La medida había sido anunciada en mayo, como parte de los intentos por aliviar la presión sobre los mercados de crédito y mantener un tope para las tasas de interés, pero los bancos se abalanzaron sobre el dinero barato. Previamente, el BCE les prestó dinero a los bancos por hasta seis meses.

    "Esto debería tranquilizar a los bancos de que tienen la liquidez adecuada para los próximos 12 meses", indicó Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, un influyente miembro del consejo del BCE, durante un discurso pronunciado el miércoles en Roma.

    Luego de inundar los mercados con créditos a corto plazo por 94.800 millones de euros (US$130.200 millones) en agosto de 2007, el BCE ha sido más cauto que la Fed y el Banco de Inglaterra. El organismo redujo su tasa de referencia a corto plazo a 1% en mayo de 4,25% en octubre de 2008. Muchos economistas han señalado que el BCE está en condiciones de hacer más para estimular el crecimiento. Los precios al consumidor no cambiaron desde mayo de 2008 a mayo de 2009 en Europa, muy por debajo del objetivo del BCE de mantener la inflación debajo del 2%. Los precios están cayendo en algunas partes de Europa.

    En Irlanda, por ejemplo, la inflación de mayo declinó 4,7% frente a mayo del año previo. "Las crecientes presiones desinflacionarias anticipadas durante los próximos dos años implican que el margen que queda para recortar las tasas de interés debería ser utilizado rápidamente", le recomendó al BCE la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económico en una previsión económica divulgada el miércoles.

    La Fed redujo en diciembre su tasas interbancaria, de préstamos a un día entre los bancos, a entre 0% y 0,25%. Los mercados a futuro indican que los inversionistas esperan que la entidad suba las tasas a fin de año, pero el organismo no ha dado casi ningún indicio de que se dispone a hacerlo.

    La decepción de los mercados por la falta de detalles sobre las compras de activos de la Fed podría ejercer presión sobre su presidente, Ben Bernanke, para hablar más abiertamente sobre sus planes para poner punto final a estos programas una vez que la economía se estabilice. "Necesitan explicar en más detalle cuáles serán los pasos y por qué creen que este es un proceso manejable que se puede ejecutar sin que la inflación se escape de control", afirmó Peter Hooper, economista jefe de Deustche Bank Securities.

    jueves, junio 25, 2009

    Obama and Welfare Economics

    Obama and Welfare Economics.The pursuit of equality

    Welfare economics is a very important branch of economic theory; it serves as a foundation to many applied such as public finance, and the economic of government policy.

    Welfare may diverge from utility (or preference). Distinguishing basic value judgments from subjective judgments of fact enhances the role of economist in policy recommendation.

    But what is the principle underlying this segment of the economy? The Pareto Principle: this principle says that a change is desirable if it makes some individuals better off without making any other individuals worse off.

    This principle is a reasonable sufficient-criterion for a social improvement. However, most policy changes make some individuals better off and some worse off. And that is the big problem that can be presented to President Obama and his team.

    Can Obama still have a sufficient criterion for social improvement? Different welfare criterion in terms of compensation tests have been proposed to deal with cases where some individuals are made better off and some worse off.

    The problem of social choice is to see whether we can derive our social preference based on the preferences of individuals, satisfying certain reasonable conditions. This seems simple enough and nothing more than the basic requirement of democracy. But a formidable difficulty is encountered in this problem of social choice. A neo-dictator, he may say that, “the social welfare should just be my preference. Whatever I prefer or whatever I think is good for society should prevail”

    The Majority Preference Criterion says that “x” should be preferred to “y” if no one prefers “y” to “x” and at least half of the population prefer “x” to “y”.

    What is the optimal distribution of income? The analysis concentrate on the choice of a tax schedule and then achieve an optimal balance between the need to provide incentives to work and the reduction of inequality due to differential earning skills.

    Nevertheless, this is not the only relevant issue: the difference in skills is not the only cause of inequality; income taxation is not the only problem in economic justice. In fact, some people believe that equality of opportunity is more important than equality of income, because equality of opportunity will lead to equality of income, and equality of income is not an injustice if there is equality of opportunity.

    The pursuit of equality by progressive income taxation is usually limited by the consideration of this incentive.
    Wider problems related to social welfare are briefly considered and then we have the following question: does economic growth increase social welfare? Answers to such question can only be provided by a complete analysis of all institutional effects. Due to the increasing complexity of modern society, it is likely that more problems are going to involve significant institutional and subjective effects, making a complete multidisciplinary study more necessary.

    Mr. Obama had done a better job of selling his package, and had worked harder at making sure that Republicans were included in drafting it, they would have found it more difficult to oppose his plans.

    But The Economist said: “There are some signs that Mr. Obama’s administration is learning. This week the battered treasury secretary, Tim Geithner, has at last come up with a detailed plan to rescue the banks. Its success is far from guaranteed, and the mood of Congress and the public has soured to the point where, should this plan fail, getting another one off the drawing board will be exceedingly hard. But the plan at least demonstrates the administration’s acceptance that it must work with the bankers, instead of riding the wave of popular opinion against them, if it is to repair America’s economy”.

    South Korean and Latin America

    A delegation of South Korean energy and construction companies, as well as representatives of the Government of Seoul from Sunday to visit various countries in Latin America to strengthen diplomatic and economic ties in the region.

    Twenty Asian officials will visit Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador and Mexico for two weeks, reported Thursday that the South Korean agency Yonhap.

    According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of South Korea, the visit aims at boosting diplomatic and commercial ties in the fields of energy, natural resources and climate change.

    The delegation will travel to the Americas will be composed, among others, responsible for state-owned companies, such as the Korea National Oil Oil, and private, as the divisions of the construction of GS and POSCO.

    Since South Korean President Lee Myung-bak came to power last year has focused its efforts overseas in what has been called "energy diplomacy" to secure agreements allowing the Asian country better access to raw materials.

    Several South Korean multinationals already operating in the fields of energy in countries like Bolivia or Mexico, although this view with the Asian country seeks to expand its activities in Latin America.

    A delegation of South Korean energy and construction companies, as well as representatives of the Government of Seoul from Sunday to visit various countries in Latin America to strengthen diplomatic and economic ties in the region, Venezuela is on the agenda. 

    Twenty South Korean officials and businessmen visited the country in addition to Bolivia, Ecuador and Mexico for two weeks, today the South Korean agency Yonhap. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of South Korea, the visit aims at boosting diplomatic and commercial ties in the fields of energy, natural resources and climate change, Efe reported. 

    The delegation will travel to the Americas will be composed, among others, responsible for state-owned companies, such as the Korea National Oil Oil, and private, as the divisions of the construction of Posco and GS. 

    Since South Korean President Lee Myung-bak came to power last year has focused its efforts overseas in what has been called "energy diplomacy" to secure agreements allowing the Asian country better access to raw materials. Several South Korean multinationals already operating in the fields of energy in countries like Bolivia or Mexico, although this view with the Asian country seeks to expand its activities in Latin America.

    miércoles, junio 24, 2009

    Iran y el "gas del bueno"

    A flood of security forces using tear gas and clubs quickly overwhelmed a small group of rock-throwing protesters near Iran's parliament Wednesday, and the country's supreme leader said the outcome of the disputed presidential election will stand — the latest signs of the government's growing confidence in quelling unrest on the streets.

    As the election showdown has shifted, demonstrators are finding themselves increasingly scattered and struggling under a blanket crackdown that the wife of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi compared to martial law. In Wednesday's clashes, thousands of police crushed hundreds of Mousavi supporters.

    The statement by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that the June 12 election of hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would not be reversed was accompanied by a vow that the nation's rulers would never yield to demands from the streets.

    Since last week's protests, the government has unleashed days of escalating force, including the full weight of the powerful Revolutionary Guard and its feared civilian militias on the opposition.

    Social networking sites carried claims of brutal tactics by police such as savage beatings with batons, but the report could not be independently confirmed.

    In the battle for public opinion, the leaders also ramped up a familiar smear campaign: that the opposition was being aided by the United States and other perceived foes of Iran.

    What began as groundswell protest of alleged vote fraud increasingly appears to be splintering into random acts of rage and frustration against emboldened and well-armed security forces determined to hold their ground.

    Many experts in Iranian affairs do not believe the dwindling street protests signal an end for the challenges to Khamenei and the regime. Many foresee lower-risk — but still potent — acts of dissent such as general strikes, blocking traffic with sit-ins, and the nightly cries of protest from rooftops and balconies.

    "It will carry on until the regime changes: Weeks, months, years. You'd be a fool to predict," said Robert Hunter, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO and head of Middle East Affairs in the Carter administration. "But the beast of the desire for something different is on the prowl."

    Senior Israeli Defense Ministry official Amos Gilad told The Associated Press that he sees no "signs of Ahmadinejad's regime collapsing any time soon."

    "The intelligence community worldwide were surprised by the protests," he said.

    There are still signs of life in the protest movement. Small groups battled police Wednesday and there were calls on reformist Web sites for a gathering Thursday at the shrine of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

    But Mousavi has increasingly turned his back on mass street demonstrations, fearing the likelihood of more violence or deaths.

    Wednesday's unrest showed the lopsided odds. Groups of protesters — perhaps several hundred — tossed rocks and trash at riot police in running clashes outside parliament. The demonstrators fled as police used tear gas and fired in the air, possibly with live ammunition.

    Throughout the day, black-clad security agents and police watched main streets and squares to prevent any major gatherings — a stark difference from last week when authorities generally stood aside and allowed a series of marches that brought more than 1 million people streaming through Tehran.

    Mousavi's wife, Zahra Rahnavard — a former university dean who campaigned beside her husband — said on a Web site that the crackdown is "as if martial law has been imposed in the streets."

    It also could be an indication of what's ahead — unless the protest movement can recapture its momentum.

    The fallout may leave Khamenei and the ruling theocracy battered by once-unthinkable defiance of their leadership. But they still control the Revolutionary Guard and its vast network of volunteer militias that watch every corner of Iran.

    The Guard — sworn to defend the Islamic system at all costs — has been steadily expanding its authority for years to include critical portfolios such as Iran's missile program, its oil pipelines and other energy infrastructure, and some oversight of the nuclear program.

    Their stake in the Islamic system is deep and they appear now to have the green light to move against any perceived threats.

    Their militia wing, known as the Basij, can operate like a neighbor-by-neighbor intelligence agency.

    "The Revolutionary Guard may well emerge as the big winner of all this," said Patrick Clawson, deputy director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

    State television aired a documentary Wednesday lauding the Revolutionary Guard and another show about the dangers of the Internet and claiming that "Iran's enemies" were using the Web to whip up dissent.

    Dozens of activists, protesters and Iranian journalists — and at least one foreign reporter — have been detained since the election, human rights groups say. The overall death toll is not clear; state media said at least 17 people have been killed. Amateur video showed the death Saturday of a woman identified as Neda Agha Soltan, who has become a worldwide symbol of the bloodshed.

    A 53-year-old Tehran woman described the intense security around Baharestan Square near parliament: "There was a lot of police, riot police and Basiji everywhere." The woman spoke by phone to the AP, asking for anonymity because of fears of reprisals from authorities.

    The chief of Israel's Mossad intelligence agency, Meir Dagan, told a closed session of the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that he believes the demonstrations in Iran would die down and Ahmadinejad would stay in power.

    He also said the Mossad expects Iran to have nuclear weapons by 2014. Meir's statements were recounted by a participant in the meeting, speaking on condition of anonymity because the meeting was closed.

    The United States and its allies worry that Iran's program could lead to nuclear weapons, but Iran insists it only seeks peaceful reactors to produce electricity.

    President Barack Obama has offered to open talks with Iran's leaders to ease a nearly 30-year diplomatic estrangement. But he sharpened his rhetoric Tuesday, saying he was "appalled and outraged" by Tehran's heavy hand against protesters.

    It's not clear how the unrest — Iran's worst internal turmoil since the Islamic Revolution — would influence possible talks with Washington. It's clear, however, that the leadership has no intention of abandoning Ahmadinejad.

    An offer for Iranian envoys around the world to attend U.S. Embassy Fourth of July parties has been rescinded "given the events of the past many days," said White House spokesman Robert Gibbs. The invitation was part of a U.S. outreach to Iran, but so far no Iranian officials had accepted.

    Khamenei said the government would not buckle to pressures over the election, closing the door to compromise over Mousavi's claim that the vote was rigged and he was the rightful winner.

    "On the current situation, I was insisting and will insist on implementation of the law. That means, we will not go one step beyond the law," Khamenei said on state television. "For sure, neither the system nor the people will give in to pressures at any price." He used language that indicated he was referring to domestic pressures.

    A conservative candidate in the disputed election, Mohsen Rezaie, said he was withdrawing his complaints about vote fraud for the sake of the country, state TV reported. Rezaie is a former commander of Revolutionary Guard and his decision suggests the Guard seeks to avoid possible rifts as Ahmadinejad begins his second, four-year term.

    State TV reported that Ahmadinejad would be sworn in between July 26 and Aug. 19.

    Khamenei also reinforced Iran's accusations that the United States, Britain and other foreign powers were encouraging the unrest — apparently part of a coordinated strategy to disgrace Mousavi and his followers.

    State television showed detained demonstrators whose faces were blurred out. Some of them made "confessions," saying they had been incited by the British Broadcasting Corp. and Voice of America. They said demonstrators, not security forces, had used violence.

    "We torched public property, threw stones, attacked cars and smashed windows," said one woman, who was not identified.

    State-run Press TV also said police raided a building it identified as a Mousavi campaign office and allegedly used as a base to promote unrest. The report said the suspected plotters had been arrested and placed under investigation.


    Murphy reported from Cairo. Associated Press writers William J. Kole and Hadeel Al-Shalchi in Cairo, Paisley Dodds in London and Mark Lavie in Jerusalem contributed to this report.


    Obama elogia liderança de Lula e Bachelet

    Presidente americano diz que Brasil e Chile são o caminho certo para países da América Latina

    Patrícia Campos Mello

    O presidente americano Barack Obama elogiou ontem a liderança do presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva na América Latina e afirmou que o brasileiro implementou "reformas de mercado inteligentes que tornaram o Brasil próspero". Segundo Obama, Chile e Brasil "são o caminho certo para outros países da região onde a tradição democrática não é tão sólida como poderia ser".

    Respondendo a uma pergunta sobre a presidente do Chile, Michelle Bachelet, com quem ele se encontrou ontem na Casa Branca, Obama afirmou que tanto o Chile como o Brasil lideram na América Latina. "O presidente Lula tem uma orientação política muito diferente da maioria dos americanos, ele veio do movimento sindicalista e é visto como um esquerdista", disse o presidente americano. "Mas ele se mostrou uma pessoa muito prática, e, apesar de manter relacionamentos com todo o espectro político na América Latina, ele implementou várias reformas de mercado inteligentes, que tornaram o Brasil próspero."

    Obama já havia dedicado elogios a Lula em Londres, na reunião do G-20, em abril. Na ocasião, a conversa foi em particular, mas o momento acabou captado pelas câmeras. Obama afirmou que Lula era "o cara" e que o presidente brasileiro era o "político mais popular do mundo". "É porque ele é boa pinta", brincou o americano.

    Obama também elogiou Michelle Bachelet, que chamou de "uma das melhores líderes da América Latina, uma pessoa muito capaz". Ele disse que o Chile lidou muito habilmente com a recessão, ao usar a receita com exportação de cobre em um fundo anticíclico. "É uma boa lição para os Estados Unidos. Quando tínhamos superávits, nós os desperdiçamos."

    Bachelet retribui o elogio, dizendo que Obama "é um ídolo" no Chile. Depois do encontro, Obama anunciou uma parceria em energia limpa com o Chile, principalmente energia solar. E os jornalistas chilenos presentes ao encontro pediram para tirar uma foto ao lado do presidente Obama.

    O indicado para assumir o principal posto diplomático dos Estados Unidos para a América Latina, Arturo Valenzuela, é chileno-americano.

    Carla Bruni-Sarkozy, escuchando el discurso

    Sarkozy esboza su plan de Gobierno en un discurso inédito desde Napoleón III

    Sarkozy es el primer presidente en dirigirse al conjunto del Legislativo en 150 años |
    El último presidente que lo hizo fue Charles-Louis Napoleon (Napoleón III) en 1848

    París. (EFE).- El presidente francés, Nicolas Sarkozy, expuso hoy el modelo que quiere para la Francia de después de la crisis en su primer discurso ante el Congreso reunido en el Palacio de Versalles, a las afueras de París, y el primero de un jefe de Estado ante las dos cámaras del parlamento desde 1848.

    Tras reconocer que "la crisis no ha terminado" y que "no sabemos cuándo terminará", el jefe del Estado galo insistió en que hay que sacar partido de esta situación y analizar las razones por las que se ha llegado a este punto a nivel mundial para crear un nuevo modelo de crecimiento. Mientras no se supere esta crisis, "debemos seguir apoyando la actividad, garantizar la estabilidad de nuestro sistema bancario" y proteger a los sectores más vulnerables de la población.

    La aspiración francesa para la nueva etapa de después de la crisis será "poner la economía al servicio del hombre", dijo el presidente en un discurso solemne en el que, además de la economía, el presidente expone las ideas políticas y sociales que guiarán su acción de Gobierno.

    El presidente francés aseguró además que no subirá la fiscalidad porque retrasaría el fin de la crisis, y dijo que hay que anular "el mal déficit", seguir invirtiendo en proyectos de futuro y reabsorber cuando la economía se recupere "el déficit imputable a la crisis". "No haré una política de rigor. No aumentaré los impuestos porque retrasaría la salida de la crisis", señaló Sarkozy.

    Reconoció que en Francia "tenemos un problema de déficit", pero insistió entre "un mal déficit" vinculado al gasto corriente de las administraciones que "debe ser reducido a cero", mientras que también hay un "déficit imputable a la crisis" por la disminución de la recaudación de las administraciones o por el dinero dedicado a programas de ayuda social que "ha funcionado mal".

    De este último, avanzó que "tras la crisis, habrá que dedicarle la totalidad de los ingresos del crecimiento económico", pero ahora "la cuestión central es la calidad del gasto" y también proponer a los interlocutores sociales "medidas masivas" para, por ejemplo, que toda persona que sufra un despido económico pueda recibir durante un año su salario íntegro y una formación para reintegrarse al empleo.

    Sarkozy también justificó otra serie de compromisos financieros, en particular los que derivan del proceso de concertación sobre políticas ecológicas, conocido como el 'Grenelle del Medio Ambiente' porque "es el gasto más rentable" que redundará en la creación de 600.000 empleos en Francia. Estas palabras cobran un sentido particular un día después de que el Ejecutivo francés haya admitido que el déficit público será superior a lo que esperaba, ya que se situará entre el 7% y el 7,5% del Producto Interior Bruto (PIB) tanto este año como el próximo.

    El jefe del Estado, que el miércoles anunciará una remodelación de su Gobierno, señaló que las prioridades de ese Ejecutivo se financiarán con una emisión de deuda pública cuyo monto y cuyas modalidades se fijarán en función de la definición de dichas prioridades. Sobre la reforma del sistema de pensiones, avanzó que "2010 será capital" porque se abrirá el debate sobre todos los aspectos con los interlocutores sociales, incluido el retraso de la edad de jubilación (actualmente 60 años en Francia) o que se tenga en cuenta la penosidad de ciertos oficio a la hora de calcular el periodo de cotización.

    El presidente conservador insistió en la idea de que hay que disminuir la fiscalidad sobre el trabajo y la producción para evitar la deslocalización y la desindustrialización de Francia porque "la idea de una Francia sin fábricas y sin obreros es una idea loca". A ese respecto, y sin dar ningún detalle sobre sus modalidades, se pronunció en favor de la idea de una "tasa de carbono" que grave las emisiones de CO2: "cuanto más gravemos la contaminación, más podremos reducir la fiscalidad del trabajo".

    Del diagnóstico de las razones de la crisis, comentó que "derecha e izquierda hemos dejado demasiado espacio al capitalismo financiero", mientras "en el nuevo modelo de crecimiento hay que dar más espacio al trabajo, a los empresarios, a la producción". Sarkozy hizo una alusión a las reformas en la UE al comentar que "Francia cambia, pero Europa debe cambiar también" y que "Europa debe darse los medios para participar en la transformación del mundo".

    Sarkozy dice que el burka no es un signo religioso, sino "de servidumbre"
    Nicolas Sarkozy aseguró que el burka es un "signo de servidumbre", contrario a la "idea de la República francesa sobre la dignidad de la mujer". "No es un signo religioso, sino de servidumbre", afirmó Sarkozy, quien subrayó que "el burka no es bienvenido en el territorio de la República" francesa.

    El jefe del Estado francés añadió que el burka "no es un problema religioso" sino "un problema de libertad y de dignidad de las mujeres". La declaración de Sarkozy, presidente de un país laico, se produce una semana después de que el Gobierno aceptase estudiar una ley que prohíba el uso del burka en Francia, una prenda de origen afgano que oculta completamente a la mujer tras una ancha túnica y sólo cuenta con una pequeña abertura a la altura de los ojos.

    Dos días antes, un grupo de unos sesenta diputados de diferentes partidos pidió que se abriera una comisión de investigación sobre la proliferación de esa prenda, utilizada por miles de mujeres en Francia, según diversos estudios. Desde que se formuló esta petición, en Francia se ha desatado una polémica similar a la que se produjo en 2004 respecto al velo islámico y que desembocó en una ley que prohíbe el uso de cualquier signo religioso en los lugares públicos, con atención especial a las escuelas.

    La iniciativa ha reabierto un debate entre los defensores de las libertades individuales y los que consideran que éstas pueden ser limitadas en nombre del laicismo. El laicismo es un principio de "neutralidad y respeto" a "todas las opiniones y todas las creencias", indicó Sarkozy, quien señaló que "la libertad no es el derecho de cada uno a hacer lo que quiera" y agregó que no se debe equivocar el debate, pues "la religión musulmana debe ser tan respetuosa como las otras religiones".