sábado, octubre 18, 2008

Obama's Speech in Charlotte, NC

Obama's Speech in Charlotte, NC
The strategy of involving the people
Alfredo Ascanio (askain)
Published 2008-10-19 09:27 (KST)

In economics nothing is completely true because the causes are many, but a trusted politician is one that has very clear objectives.

How is the Obama rescue plan?

Obama wants to make sure that it's easy for people to get the most benefit from this crisis today and in the future. When Obama was in Charlotte, NC, a while back, he clearly explained his ideas in relation to the new economic plan.

We can divide its proposals more or less in four parts.

The first part relates to the rescue of banks and the impact on Wall Street.

The second part is related to the protection of the people, what has been called Main Street.

The third part is related to an optimistic attitude that with the help of all Americans and other countries, the crisis would be controlled.

And finally the fourth part deals with the behavior of America that always in difficult situations has been able to go out with success.

What are the key words in Obama's speech in Charlotte, NC?

Taxpayer, investment, homeowners, global crisis, financial markets, the rules, Main Street, the banks, person, job, home, working families, tax, Americans, nation, the challenge, god, election.

What are the key verbs in Obama's speech in Charlotte, NC?

must be no, to reward, should be protected, to recoup, to help, join us, we need, to prevent, to afford to go, can't just be, has to be, to resolver, I know we can, we have always, we risen, We can steer, we never forgotten, we decide.

What are the key adjectives in Obama's speech in Charlotte, NC?

no blank check, global crisis, stimulus plan, painful budget, difficult times, disastrous direction.

If we look at the key words we can say the following:

This discourse is characterized as optimistic, realistic, human and very strongly, with very few self-references, but with a very broad use of the word "WE".

It is a discourse that does not use many adjectives; then the discourse is active and without frills.

Senator Obama began his speech by saying that taxpayers must be protected, in short that the plan is basically to protect people and not just to CEOs on Wall Street and banks. Obama said so clearly that the plan has to be especially for what has been called "Main Street".

The senator said it this way:

“We can’t just have a plan for the banks; we have a plan to Dolores; We gotta have a plan for you…and you; a plan to person who’s lost their job, a plan to person who’s lost their home. A plan to young person who’s try to afford to go to college”.

It is likely that the way to involve people in a scheme that aims to resolve a financial crisis, must give to Senator Obama dividends in his political campaign.

According to a national poll that CNN conducted after the debate, 58 percent of people felt Barack Obama won the debate, while 31 percent felt that John McCain performed better. The poll also indicates that the majority of people polled felt Obama would do a better job on the economy, health care, and taxes. Additionally, those polled felt Obama was more likable and the stronger leader.

And that's what this election is all about.

Alfredo Ascanio is a professor of economics at Simon Bolivar University in Caracas, Venezuela.
©2008 OhmyNews

Other articles by reporter Alfredo Ascanio

Este fue el discurso:
  • Un diario para hispanos en New York

    Este periódico en español se edita en la ciudad de New York y es muy leído por hispanos que viven allí.Otro diario digital interesante es el BBC News:


  • También los periódicos como:

  • EL PAIS de España

    El enlace de arriba es un sitio sobre videos, Fotos, Esculturas y música clásica.. que se complementa con:
  • viernes, octubre 17, 2008

    Brent North Sea crude : 66.42 dollars a barrel

    Economy has slowed down and demand of energy is nosediving.In case recession and stagflation continues the demand of crude oil to remain low which shall bring the crude oil bottoming out its price to 35 dollars.

    Brent crude sliding under 67 dollars a barrel, the lowest level for more than 15 months, as slowing energy demand took its toll,and the analyst says that it is likely to touch below 50 dollars due to prevailing recession in the world economy.Crude has touched bottom to fifty percent from July this years when it made a high of 148 dollars due to disruption and sluggish supply and consistence demand from india and China.

    US crude piled up a parameter that

    OPEC, in state of oil jerks is worried about oil prices thus is target of recession in coming months and erratic market to flow calls forward an extraordinary meeting on the impact of the current finance crisis on oil rates from 24th October to November.

    Russian economy which started picking up shall also find their economy reeling under recession with crude price taking the toll of the lavish rich oil economy with high tech benfic.

    Global aviation companies may sigh a relief with oil trading bottoming.

    Brent North Sea crude for delivery in November slumped to 66.42 dollars a barrel - the lowest point since mid-2007 - in late London trade.By 1520 GMT, Brent recovered to 66.61 dollars, down 4.19 dollars from Wednesday"s close.

    The contract had ended down 3.73 dollars on Wednesday as mounting fears of a global recession raised expectations of a prolonged slowdown to worldwide energy demand.

    In Thursday trade, New York"s main futures contract, light sweet crude for November delivery, was down 1.37 dollars at 73.17 dollars a barrel after sinking as low as 71.21 - a level last reached in August, 2007.

    'The fears about this global credit crisis leading to an extended economic slump, and perhaps a recession, really are causing investors to bail out of equities and also oil," said Victor Shum from the Purvin and Gertz energy consultancy.

    jueves, octubre 16, 2008

    E Cuaderno: el BLOG de j.L. Origuela

    El BLOG de J. L. Origuela vale la pena conocer y navegar en ese lugar; o sea verlo en su totalidad.

    Who Won the Debate?

    Who Won the Debate?
    by Mike Krumboltz

    October 16, 2008 06:24:53 AM

    10,327 Votes

    The experts said this was John McCain's last best chance to turn the tide. The election has been going Barack Obama's way, and his republican rival needed a big win in the third and final debate. Did Sen. McCain get it? The polls say one thing, but do the pundits agree?

    The Polls
    According to a national poll that CNN conducted after the debate, 58% of people felt Barack Obama won the debate, while 31% felt that John McCain performed better. The poll also indicates that the majority of people polled felt Obama would do a better job on the economy, health care, and taxes. Additionally, those polled felt Obama was more likable and the stronger leader.

    While CNN's poll suggests an Obama landslide, the folks at Politico have different results. According to an "exclusive survey" of undecided voters, 49% of folks felt Sen. Obama won, while 46% believed Sen. McCain could claim victory. Politico notes that the 3-point difference is within the poll's margin of error.

    CBS News conducted its own poll of uncommitted voters and found that Barack Obama won the third debate by a wide margin: 53% believed that Sen. Obama was stronger while 22% sided with Sen. McCain. A full 25% thought it was too close to call. It wasn't all bad news for McCain, though. According to the poll, more uncommitted voters trust the Arizona senator to handle a crisis.

    The Pundits
    ABC analyst (and former Bill Clinton aide) George Stephanopoulos wrote that this was McCain's best effort, but that Obama was still the victor. Stephanopoulos credited Obama's ability to stay cool and not grow exasperated during his opponent's attacks.

    Fox News asked a collection of in-house experts who won the debate, and the opinions were...well...fair and balanced. Some felt that McCain was feisty (in a good way) and proved that he is ready for a fight. Others believed that McCain didn't score the huge hit he needed to stop Obama's momentum.

    Time's Mark Halperin graded both candidates on style, substance, offense, and defense. The columnist felt Obama did well (he earned a "B"), but that McCain bested him in all areas. The Maverick scored an A-.

    Oil : "the Devil's Excrement": And the booty of politicians

    Oil: "The Devil's Excrement"
    And the booty of politicians
    Alfredo Ascanio (askain)
    Published 2008-10-16 16:13 (KST)

    Christopher Columbus arrived in Venezuela in 1498. The name Venezuela is a distortion of "Little Venice"; the country was so called because Indians lived in huts built on stilts in shallow lagoons near the sea.

    Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo was a Venezuelan minister of energy that popularized the phrase "oil: the devil's excrement" and the minister said that the oil corrupts the power.

    In 1908 began the dictatorship of Juan Vicente Gomez, nicknamed the Sorcerer of the catfish. He managed the country as a huge private estate, and built up a fortune estimated at $200 million. Gomez was a mestizo from the Venezuelan Andes, and never altogether learned to read and write; he never married, and had between eighty and ninety bastard children. Oil was discovered during the Gomez regime.

    Power was taken over by Colonel (later General) Marcos Perez Jimenez (1948-1958). One of his major sources of power was a corrupt police state with spies and imprisonment and torture for opponents. He was ousted by a coup d'etat in 1958.

    Perez Jimenez fled to Miami and set up residence there in a $300,000 house, with five automobiles, a yacht, and a team of body-guards, to say nothing of a fortune estimated by the authority of New York Times, Aug. 17, 1963 from $ 250 million to $700 million.

    Dr. Arturo Uslar Pietri originated the phrase: "Sow the oil," so that the politicians were not stolen the Oil's fortune. Venezuela was the third biggest producer of oil in the world.

    "This country is an oil factory," said President Raul Leoni.

    Oil has been known since the 1870s, but the first large well did not come in till 1914, and the industry did not become commercial on a serious scale until the 1920s. The Venezuelans took the lead in 1960 in establishing the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

    In spite of its stupendous wealth in oil, Venezuela has few oil millionaires in the private sector like those in Texas, but there are many in public sector. The number of corruption cases for seven presidential terms, as the psychiatrist Abraham Genis said, was:

    Romulo Betancourt, 4
    Raul Leoni, 13
    Rafael Caldera, 14
    Carlos Andres Perez (first period), 39
    Luis Herrera Campins, 96
    Jaime Lusinchi, 66
    Carlos Andres Perez (second period), 26

    The national press has said that the government with the highest rate of corruption is the government of Hugo Chavez. In addition, the Chavez government has given money to other countries in oil and cash worth estimated at $30,000 billion. The high price of oil has served to squander fortunes.

    Due to the fragile psychological, social and cultural of many politicians Venezuelans, according to the psychiatrist Genis, they are sick of addition to power and money.

    In primitive times, the evils of men came from nature: hunger, wild beasts and telluric phenomena. Today the evils come from some men, the "homo homini lupus" who want power to impact society and nature; and this means destroying itself while not knowing his own disaster.

    Venezuela will have to make an about face in its traditional methods of oil policy and control of the foreign exchange obtained by the sale of oil, if it wishes to align itself with modern trends of honest and responsible countries like Denmark, for example.

    Today, Venezuela is experiencing a political campaign to elect new governors and mayors. Political participation is the essence of elections and who will be responsible for the direction of the State.

    The new politicians are mostly young people with good preparation. These new politicians want to put end to populism, excessive bureaucracy and corruption.

    There is always a hope of a rational and appropriate change to the new times, but always there is uncertainty if "the devil's excrement" or the booty that proportion the oil, can continue may or may not still be a temptation for new politicians and their decisions. That is essentially the tragedy of Venezuela.

    Alfredo Ascanio is a professor of economics at Simon Bolivar University in Caracas, Venezuela.
    ©2008 OhmyNews

    miércoles, octubre 15, 2008

    Increible the Wall Street Journal ahora está digitalizado en castellano

    Este diario es el que necesitamos como complemento para saber algo de lo que pasa con el lío de la criis financiera. Y digo : ALGO, porque creo que no nos dirán toda la verdad verdadera...

    The 'Affluent Society: A different approach

    The 'Affluent Society'
    A different approach

    by Alfredo Ascanio (askain)
    Published 2008-10-15 12:36 (KST)

    Prominent members of the Republican Party accused John McCain of bringing the campaign in a wrong way; but it is unusual for Fidel Castro to write positively on Barack Obama. "Obama has more intelligence and serenity than Republican John McCain," Castro said. On May 26 Castro had said that Obama is "in terms of social and human, the most advanced candidate" in the US presidential.

    This past Sunday, former Cuban president said in an article, "In the deep racism of the United States, 'pure miracle' Obama has not been assassinated, as the black leader Martin Luther King."

    Castro, 82 and absent from public life due to illness since July 2006, sent five comments to McCain last February and then another in June. In the same line of disqualifications, on Sunday added that McCain:

    "Cultivates his reputation as bellicose man, was one of the worst students in his course at West Point and did not know anything about math, and is presumably much less the complicated economics."

    Castro was also very aggressive and bellicose and he was not human with Cuban political prisoners. The qualifications of Castro or his attitude apparently there are more maliciously and never candid, without giving credit to a free and democratic campaign that he never had. Someone might suggest: Care! not reflect on the behavior of politicians reflect on the current economy.

    The question we are doing now is: why Castro writes positively related to Obama and write negatively to McCain? The comments of Castro benefit or harm the image's Democratic leader?

    Let me outline the reasons for these contrasting comments. We must be careful when politicians say things and especially in the context of a political campaign.

    The world has become more and more complex, its physical and moral health constantly being influenced by a thousand beneficial or maleficent forms of progress.

    Then, perhaps, this disturbing and this dangerous crisis that we foresee, will be more easily controlled and will be better understood by politicians who have been able to make a proper assessment not only of short-term but long term.

    We realise then that, for solving complex problems, the number of possible solutions is such that a simple statement of preference in inadequate.

    "A curiosity of modern economic life is the role of change. The innovations and alterations in economic life in the last seventy years, and more especially since the beginning of World War II been great," said John Kenneth Galbraith.

    "The corporation was the instrument of its owners and a projection of their personalities. The names of these principals - Carnegie, Rockefeller, Harriman, Mellon Guggenheim, Ford - they are still known," said Galbraith.

    Today is different. The shareholders of the companies are unknown to the general public, although experts working on Wall Street very well know the characteristics and behavior of investors.

    The relation of the state to the economy has changed. The services of Federal, state and local governments now account for between a fifth and a quarter of all economic activity. In 1929 it was about 8 percent.

    Additionally, in the wake of what is now called the Keynesian Revolution, the state undertakes to regulate the total income available for the purchase of goods and services in the economy. It seeks to insure sufficient purchasing power to buy everything desirable.

    The economic thinking of Professor Galbraith warned of the danger to society of a chronic inflation, because the ideas are one thing and another thing is reality. The competition is still not working as classical economists conceived it. The producer no longer sells at prices that the market is fixed.

    Production depends on the economic stability and the triumph electoral. A production is the "alchemy" of the Liberals.

    The modern economy is characterized, Galbraith said, for complex technology and efficient domain of large companies, increased state intervention to regulate the economy, weakening worker's unions and development of higher education.

    An affluent society no longer responds to the actions of the market and it imposes the producer to the consumer. Shareholders no longer have power but are a "techno structure" with high operating level and autonomy, where big business concentrates all the power and decisions.

    The only businesses that depend on the market are small and medium enterprises.

    The neo-capitalism, according to Tom Kemp, is dominated by the 500 largest and most powerful companies, with 50 percent of the production of goods and services.

    The income of senior officials of these 500 companies has a positive correlation with stock prices and them Harry Magdoff said: "... the casino on Wall Street may be useful for members of the techno structure and for shareholders."

    However Galbraith alerts us to point out: "the magnitude of the obstacles to be overcome is now higher than in the era of Keynes when he advised stimulate demand for emerging from the great depression." It is now essential to ensure that production does not grow beyond certain limits.

    For the Mexican economist Alonso Aguilar is difficult to convince the majority of the poor that capitalism has been humanized.

    Alfredo Ascanio is a professor of economics at Simon Bolivar University in Caracas, Venezuela.
    ©2008 OhmyNews

    martes, octubre 14, 2008

    Vote for President

    Una encuenta mundial sobre la campaña presidencial en USA. Por ejemplo en Venezuela el resultado fue Obama 56% y McCain 44%. Pero ustedes pueden ver el score de su propio país o el resultado mundial.

    lunes, octubre 13, 2008

    LIonel Le Jeune (PINTOR FRANCES)

    Nacido en París y ahora residente en Avignon, Lionel Le Jeune se caracteriza por composiciones que representa el anonimato del mundo urbano. .

    Sorpresa de un joven autodidacta artista. Su enfoque, en óleo sobre tela usando materiales de su elección, su pintura se extiende a la pintura tradicional de los géneros (desnudos, paisajes y escenas varia) pero con una fuerza original.

    Joven pintor, de hecho, es una personalidad artística que muestra sus grandes ambiciones plásticas. Se trata de identificar, en movimiento detrás de las apariencias del mundo sensible, la permanencia de un inteligible, por lo que se considera que los pintores Edward Hopper y Balthus, son sus predecesores. Al igual que ellos, sobre la base de una cultura clásica establecido por las frecuentes, este pintor ha desarrollado su propio lenguaje pictórico para elevarse, es este nuestro mundo cotidiano con la dignidad estética que lo caracteriza.

    En este sentido, su género rescatar escenas urbanas con bastante coherencia en su planteamiento y el éxito de su empresa. Veterano dibujante, Le Jeune le gusta a una rigurosa composición, que describe los hábitats colectivos de los transeúntes. A continuación, fijación de sus protagonistas una actitudes inofensivo, Le Jeune también produce una presencia enigmática. La soledad de cada actor que nunca intercambiaron miradas, refuerza aún más esta atmósfera misteriosa. Por lo tanto, nuestro mundo urbano donde lo trivial puede ser inútil y feo .. el pintor extrae lo básico para nutrir su visión de un mundo atemporal y estético.

    Heredero de la tradición pictórica clásica como él admira jóvenes ampliado su singular talento para soportar el medio ambiente en su mirada afilada que logra superar la zona de las apariencias.

    Fidel Castro y Obama

    La Habana, 12 de octubre.

    Fidel Castro volvió a destacar las cualidades del candidato presidencial demócrata estadunidense Barack Obama, esta vez para decir que “supera en inteligencia y serenidad” al republicano John McCain, pero el ex presidente cubano sigue sin reaccionar a la anunciada intención del senador por Illinois de intentar un diálogo con La Habana “sin precondiciones”.

    El pasado 26 de mayo Castro había dicho que Obama es “desde el punto de vista social y humano, el más avanzado candidato” presidencial en Estados Unidos, pero rechazó la mayor parte de la política del demócrata hacia la isla.

    Este domingo, el ex presidente cubano dijo en un artículo que, con el “profundo racismo” de Estados Unidos, “de puro milagro” Obama no ha sido asesinado, como los líderes negros Martin Luther King y Malcolm X hace cuatro décadas. “Tiene además el hábito de mirar al adversario con serenidad y reírse de los aprietos dialécticos de un oponente que mira hacia el vacío”.

    Castro, de 82 años y ausente de la vida pública por enfermedad desde julio de 2006, dedicó cinco comentarios a McCain en febrero pasado y luego otro en junio. En la misma línea de descalificaciones, el domingo añadió que el republicano “cultiva su fama de hombre belicoso, fue uno de los peores alumnos de su curso en West Point. No sabía nada de matemáticas, según confiesa y es de suponer que mucho menos de las complicadas ciencias económicas”.

    Luego dijo que “lo que más abunda en McCain son los años y su salud no es en lo absoluto segura”. Así evocó la “eventual posibilidad” de que, si triunfara el republicano y muere o queda incapacitado, sería remplazado por la “inexperta” candidata a la vicepresidencia, Sarah Palin.

    En su artículo de mayo, Castro había dicho que “haría un enorme favor a sus adversarios” si defendiera a Obama, pero quedan claros sus elogios al demócrata y sus ataques a McCain, un esquema que en algunos núcleos, como el anticastrismo radical de la Florida, puede ser un arma electoral de los republicanos.

    El diario oficial Granma está registrando la campaña con un tono notablemente mesurado y analítico, sin la metralla de adjetivos que acostumbra la propaganda oficial, a través de artículos del experimentado diplomático y ex jefe de la Sección de Intereses de Cuba en Washington (1977-1989), Ramón Sánchez-Parodi.

    En un discurso en Miami, en mayo, Obama hizo la que hasta ahora es su más detallada exposición sobre su eventual política hacia Cuba, que incluye la fórmula de “diplomacia directa, tanto con amigos como con adversarios, sin precondiciones”.

    Aunque aún falta el resultado electoral y el desempeño efectivo del futuro jefe de la Casa Blanca, ese pasaje se relaciona con el reclamo, reiterado por el presidente Raúl Castro el 26 de julio de 2007, de que Washington decida si mantendrá la confrontación “o acepta el ramo de olivo que extendimos (en diciembre de 2006), cuando reafirmamos la disposición a discutir en pie de igualdad el prolongado diferendo”.

    Más tarde, el 31 de julio de 2007, Fidel Castro escribió que “nadie se haga la menor ilusión de que el imperio, que lleva en sí los genes de su propia destrucción, negociará con Cuba”.

    En su artículo de mayo último, Fidel rechazó la intención de Obama de prolongar el bloqueo económico y reaccionó ácidamente a la promesa del demócrata de liberar los viajes a la isla de los cubanos residentes en Estados Unidos, así como el envío de remesas a sus familiares, ahora todo ello sometido a fuertes restricciones.

    “El discurso del candidato Obama se puede traducir en una fórmula de hambre para la nación, las remesas como limosnas y las visitas a Cuba en propaganda para el consumismo y el modo de vida insostenible que lo sustenta”, dijo entonces Fidel Castro.

    McCain y sus aliados Republicanos

    Washington, 12 de octubre. Prominentes miembros del Partido Republicano rompieron filas en torno al candidato presidencial John McCain y le acusaron de llevar un comportamiento errático en su campaña que pone en peligro las aspiraciones de relección de congresistas de su propia organización, lo que representaría una doble derrota en los poderes Ejecutivo y Legislativo en los comicios del martes 4 de noviembre.

    A las críticas contra McCain por no tener un plan de respuesta a la crisis financiera se sumaron este domingo los cuestionamientos de dos de los rivales del senador por Arizona en las elecciones primarias, Mitt Romney, ex gobernador de Massachusetts, y Tommy Thompson, ex titular del Ejecutivo en el estado de Wisconsin, por la ineficaz definición de sus mensajes políticos.

    Los señalamientos dentro del círculo republicano vienen a cuenta el día en que tres de las principales encuestadoras atribuyen a Obama una persistente ventaja sobre McCain, especialmente entre mujeres, jóvenes de 19 a 29 años y votantes recién registrados en el padrón electoral, muchos de ellos inmigrantes que acaban de obtener su acreditación ciudadana.

    Citado en la edición dominical del New York Times, Robert Gleason, líder de los republicanos en Pensylvania, expresó su preocupación por el hecho de que el tono agresivo del discurso proselitista no haya servido para atraer el respaldo de votantes moderados y mujeres de la región sur de este estado de la costa atlántica, considerado clave en la estrategia de McCain.

    En el último mes y medio, sobre todo a partir de la nominación de la gobernadora de Alaska, Sarah Palin, como aspirante a la vicepresidencia, la campaña republicana trató de relacionar a Obama con intereses extranjeros, dispuesto a dialogar sin condiciones con gobiernos enemigos de Estados Unidos como el de Irán, y débil ante los retos que imponen las relaciones internacionales.

    Resultados adversos

    Esa campaña mostró resultados adversos esta semana cuando en algunos mítines de McCain hubo simpatizantes del republicano que lanzaron gritos contra Obama, acusándolo de “socialista” y pidiendo que lo asesinen.

    El propio McCain se vio obligado a pedir moderación en un acto de campaña en Minnesota, luego de que una anciana se refirió a Obama como un “árabe”. Esta rara situación en la que un candidato sale en defensa de su contrincante fue incluso agradecida por el demócrata este fin de semana.

    La filtración del tema racial en la campaña se convirtió así en el centro de la discusión de los programas políticos dominicales de la televisión estadunidense y en sitios de Internet.

    El congresista demócrata John Lewis, reconocido por su lucha en favor de los derechos civiles, denunció esta situación y señaló que McCain y Palin “siembran semillas de odio y división”.

    “Lo que veo me recuerda demasiado a otro periodo destructivo en la historia de Estados Unidos”, cuando el gobernador de Alabama en los años 60, George Wallace, alentaba la segregación racial en uno de los estados con mayor población negra en el sur del país.

    “El senador McCain y la gobernadora Palin están jugando con fuego y si no son cuidadosos, ese fuego nos consumirá a todos”, apuntó Lewis, quien busca la relección como diputado por el estado de Georgia.

    Las afirmaciones de Lewis fueron calificadas por la casa de campaña de McCain como “horribles e inaceptables”, mientras que la oficina de Obama señaló que a pesar de que las acciones proselitistas de los republicanos no son comparables con los actos de Wallace, es importante condenar la “retórica de odio”.

    Sobre el tono de la campaña, el encuestador John Zogby señaló hoy que los resultados de su más reciente sondeo, divulgado este domingo, muestran que el proselitismo “negativo” no está funcionando.

    La encuesta de C-SPAN/Reuters/Zogby encontró por primera vez que el demócrata alcanzó una cifra por encima del margen de error de cinco puntos porcentuales, al ubicarse seis unidades arriba del republicano. Ese sondeo indica que Obama tiene 49 por ciento de las preferencias frente a 43 de McCain.

    La investigación muestra que Obama ha ganado popularidad entre los votantes independientes, con un respaldo de 21 por ciento, pero también es notable que la diferencia en favor del demócrata está marcada por las mujeres, puesto que las encuestadas dan al senador por Illinois 12 puntos más que a McCain. Entre los electores del género masculino, en cambio, el apoyo es parejo con 45 por ciento para cada uno.

    También entre los jóvenes de 19 a 29 años el apoyo a Obama es mayor con un margen de 20 puntos porcentuales.

    Otro sector favorable a Obama es el de los “nuevos votantes” –entre quienes destacan los de origen latino–, con 10 puntos por arriba del senador por Arizona.

    En contraste, el afroestadunidense carece del apoyo de los electores blancos, que prefieren a McCain y le conceden 10 puntos porcentuales por encima de Obama, quien a su vez dispone de 92 por ciento de las simpatías entre los ciudadanos negros.

    A tres semanas y tres días de los comicios, la Comisión Electoral Federal informó que la presente campaña se ha convertido en la más cara de la historia con un gasto de 194 millones de dólares por parte de McCain y de 377 millones de dólares del lado de Obama.

    El dinero, según el reporte actualizado hasta septiembre, fue utilizado para solventar viajes de los candidatos y sus equipos de campaña por el país, actividades de promoción del voto entre indecisos y abstencionistas, propaganda televisiva y pago de honorarios para estrategas y auxiliares.

    domingo, octubre 12, 2008

    US Election Statistically Complicated

    US Election Statistically Complicated
    New president will have to deal with the economy and international affairs

    Alfredo Ascanio (askain)
    Published 2008-09-09 06:03 (KST)

    A Gallup tracking poll over a 22-day period (Aug. 15 to Sept. 6) suggested that Senator Barack Obama with 46.77 percentage points led Senator John McCain with 43.36 percentage points, a small difference of 3.41 points.

    But if you calculated the average percentage for the first 12 days of that period (Aug. 15 to Aug. 26) and you compare it with the average percentage for the 10 days following the conventions (Aug. 27 to Sept. 6) you will notice a difference. Interestingly, the difference between the two candidates moves from 1.17 points to 6.10 points in favor of Obama. In summary, the data indicate that the technical tie can be overcome, although the tie was confirmed again on Sept. 6.

    What this means for the next 60 days of the electoral campaign is a crucial question.

    The two candidates will try to mobilize their parties as well as the mass of undecided and independent voters.

    Obama must demonstrate that he is a new leader and that people can rely on the change he proposes. McCain will continue to insist that his leadership is different from that of President Bush, said Matthew Baum, a professor at Harvard University, and David Redlawsk, a professor at Iowa University.

    However, Professor Mark Sawyer of the University of Los Angles was more emphatic in saying that McCain must overcome the limited experience of Gov. Sarah Palin and the further failures of the Bush administration and its poor global image. Obama faces distrust as the first African-American candidate. He also must not let McCain commandeer his theme of change.

    The vice presidential candidates are helping their running mates. John Biden, 65, is a Delaware Senator and has considerable experience in elections. He will help reduce the weaknesses of Obama. Palin, 44, must demonstrate that she is not an inexperienced politician and that can capture the female vote.

    A question voters should ask themselves is how the United States will look over the next four years with one of these two candidates as president. The voters want economic prosperity and most certainly peace.

    Voters also want the country to remain a leader in global decisions. There are several problems facing the new leaders in this regard: the political conflict with Russia over Georgia, the high price of oil and global warming.

    Analysts have noted that the US is in competition with Russia, China and India.

    Russia faces many problems related to the move from socialism to capitalism. The standard of living has deteriorated and nationalist movements threaten the unity of the country. Russia regards the war in Iraq as illegitimate and is angered that the US sent military advisers and aid to Georgia.

    Georgia, a small country in the Caucasus Mountains with only five million inhabitants, has insisted on its independence. The Soviet regime recognized the independence of Georgia in 1920 but then invaded the country and transformed it into a Soviet republic in the year 1924. The new Georgia achieved its independence from Russia, but there is still tension in the area.

    China continues to experiment with a new capitalist model with entrepreneurs and bankers because these players are the main forces for their development. China will continue to have trade disputes with the US and is due to join a free trade pact with 10 Southeast Asian nations.

    India is a commercial market for the US. The conflict India / Pakistan can be resolved and China is close to India to seek their cooperation.

    The future president of the US, in addition to addressing the problems of its domestic economy and seeking alliances with major power blocs, will also need to address matters relating to Latin America such as the free trade agreement with Colombia, negotiating business opportunities and policies with Venezuela, renewing alliances with Cuba and boosting its trade relations with Mexico to solve the immigration problem. It will also need to help promote the integration of South American countries and pursue a strategy that is not only commercial but also political.
    ©2008 OhmyNews