NUEVA YORK (AP) - A medida que se aviva en Washington el debate sobre un monumental rescate bancario de 700.000 millones de dólares, uno de los mayores bancos de la nación _Washington Mutual Inc._ se desplomó bajo la carga de sus abultadas apuestas fallidas en el mercado hipotecario.
La Corporación Federal de Seguro de Depósitos, FDIC, se hizo cargo el jueves del banco y después vendió las operaciones bancarias a JPMorgan Chase & Co. por 1.900 millones de dólares.
El Washington Mutual (WaMu), fundado en 1889, es el mayor banco que quiebra en la historia del país.
Sus bienes por 307.000 millones de dólares eclipsan por mucho los 40.000 millones del Continental Illinois National Bank, que quebró en 1984, y los 32.000 millones de dólares de IndyMac, de la que el gobierno se hizo cargo en julio.
Un aspecto positivo es que la venta a JPMorgan Chase impide que se agoten los fondos del FDIC, pero ese detalle apenas bastará para aliviar las tribulaciones de los consumidores que ven reducirse el crédito y disminuir sus portafolios en medio de la crisis financiera más profunda desde la gran depresión de la década de 1930.
Debido al galopante deterioro de los créditos hipotecarios otorgados por WaMu y otros bienes no productivos, JPMorgan piensa descontar con cargo a pérdidas el portafolio hipotecario de WaMu en unos 31.000 millones de dólares, una cifra que podría variar si el gobierno federal procede con su plan de rescate y JPMorgan decide utilizar esa oferta.
"Apoyamos lo que el gobierno está haciendo, pero no dependemos de ello. Lo habríamos hecho de todos modos", dijo el director general de JPMorgan, Jamie Dimon, en una conferencia telefónica el jueves por la noche refiriéndose a la adquisición. Dimon dijo no saber si JPMorgan aprovechará el rescate financiero.
WaMu es la segunda adquisición que hace JPMorgan este año de una institución financiera grande abrumada por las malas apuestas hipotecarias. En marzo, adquirió el banco de inversiones Bear Stearns Co. por 1.400 millones de dólares, además de 900 millones en acciones antes del acuerdo a fin de asegurárselo.
JPMorgan pasa ahora a ser el segundo mayor banco de Estados Unidos después del Bank of America Corp., que recientemente adquirió Merrill Lynch en un vértigo de acontecimientos que incluyó la quiebra de Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. y de American International Group Inc., el mayor asegurador del mundo.
La caída de WaMu se había anticipado desde hace tiempo debido a las fuertes pérdidas de la compañía en el mercado hipotecario.
viernes, septiembre 26, 2008
Una forma práctica de suscribirse a los BLOG
En el enlace que he colocado arriba aparece la herramienta RSSFWD para suscribirse a los blog. ES muy fácil, ustde coloca le URL del blog que desea y al correo que usted quiere que lleguen las novedades.
VENEZUELA y CHINA
Venezuela planeja triplicar venda de petróleo para a China
Clodovaldo Hernández
Em Caracas (Venezuela)
A China passará a ocupar um dos primeiros lugares na lista de compradores do petróleo venezuelano quando suas importações de petróleo bruto do país sul-americano alcançarem um milhão de barris, em 2012. Mas os clientes tradicionais da Venezuela, uma lista encabeçada pelos Estados Unidos, podem ficar tranqüilos. Haverá para todos, esclareceu o presidente Hugo Chávez.
Hoje, a Venezuela exporta 300 mil barris diários de petróleo para a China. Segundo os acordos assinados durante a visita recente de Chávez a Beijing, em 2009 será alcançada a marca de 500 mil barris e, num prazo de quatro anos, esse número se estabilizará em um milhão de unidades.
A triplicação do volume de vendas faz parte da estratégia de diversificar a carteira de clientes dos hidrocarbonetos, empreendida pelo governo de Chávez desde que conseguiu tomar o controle direto da gigante estatal Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), depois da greve petroleira frustrada de finais de 2002 e começo de 2003. "Desde que chegamos ao governo, em 1999, eu insistia para vendermos também à Rússia, China e Índia, mas os tecnocratas que controlavam a PDVSA me diziam que não, que ficavam muito longe, que não era rentável", revelou Chávez. "O que acontecia é que esses tecnocratas estavam comprometidos com o império e queriam garantir que todo o nosso petróleo fosse enviado aos Estados Unidos".
Depois de firmar os acordos, Chávez se esforçou, entretanto, em explicar que o aumento das exportações para a China não significará uma redução do abastecimento dos EUA. "Não fizemos isso e não pensamos em fazer, a menos que os EUA se atrevam a tentar uma invasão ou um novo golpe de Estado contra a Venezuela", expressou.
A declaração de Chávez estava em sintonia com a posição assumida pelo governo chinês, a propósito de sua visita, quando assinalou que a relação com a Venezuela "é normal e não pretende prejudicar a nenhum outro país".
As perspectivas de aumentar as exportações para a China foram favorecidas pela ampliação do canal do Panamá, obra que comportará navios superpetroleiros que atualmente não têm acesso à conexão entre os dois oceanos. A Venezuela também propôs à Colômbia a construção de um oleoduto que permitirá escoar o petróleo bruto e outros produtos para um porto colombiano no Pacífico, como via de acesso aos mercados asiáticos. Este projeto teve os altos e baixos característicos da relação bilateral entre os governos de Chávez e Álvaro Uribe.
O aumento das vendas de petróleo é só uma das fases da florescente relação bilateral sino-venezuelana, pois os dois países constituíram um fundo de investimentos de 6 milhões de dólares que será duplicado nos próximos anos. Os planos conjuntos incluem a construção de navios petroleiros e de uma refinaria.
A Venezuela, além disso, espera que em 2009 cheguem ao país os primeiros aviões de treinamento K-8, para as Forças Armadas, que substituirão as aeronaves de tecnologia americana que se encontram fora de serviço. "Nos vimos obrigados a buscar outros fornecedores porque Washington nos nega as peças de reposição e não podemos colocar a vida de nossos pilotos em perigo", disse Chávez.
Tradução: Eloise De Vylder
Visite o site do El País
Clodovaldo Hernández
Em Caracas (Venezuela)
A China passará a ocupar um dos primeiros lugares na lista de compradores do petróleo venezuelano quando suas importações de petróleo bruto do país sul-americano alcançarem um milhão de barris, em 2012. Mas os clientes tradicionais da Venezuela, uma lista encabeçada pelos Estados Unidos, podem ficar tranqüilos. Haverá para todos, esclareceu o presidente Hugo Chávez.
Hoje, a Venezuela exporta 300 mil barris diários de petróleo para a China. Segundo os acordos assinados durante a visita recente de Chávez a Beijing, em 2009 será alcançada a marca de 500 mil barris e, num prazo de quatro anos, esse número se estabilizará em um milhão de unidades.
A triplicação do volume de vendas faz parte da estratégia de diversificar a carteira de clientes dos hidrocarbonetos, empreendida pelo governo de Chávez desde que conseguiu tomar o controle direto da gigante estatal Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), depois da greve petroleira frustrada de finais de 2002 e começo de 2003. "Desde que chegamos ao governo, em 1999, eu insistia para vendermos também à Rússia, China e Índia, mas os tecnocratas que controlavam a PDVSA me diziam que não, que ficavam muito longe, que não era rentável", revelou Chávez. "O que acontecia é que esses tecnocratas estavam comprometidos com o império e queriam garantir que todo o nosso petróleo fosse enviado aos Estados Unidos".
Depois de firmar os acordos, Chávez se esforçou, entretanto, em explicar que o aumento das exportações para a China não significará uma redução do abastecimento dos EUA. "Não fizemos isso e não pensamos em fazer, a menos que os EUA se atrevam a tentar uma invasão ou um novo golpe de Estado contra a Venezuela", expressou.
A declaração de Chávez estava em sintonia com a posição assumida pelo governo chinês, a propósito de sua visita, quando assinalou que a relação com a Venezuela "é normal e não pretende prejudicar a nenhum outro país".
As perspectivas de aumentar as exportações para a China foram favorecidas pela ampliação do canal do Panamá, obra que comportará navios superpetroleiros que atualmente não têm acesso à conexão entre os dois oceanos. A Venezuela também propôs à Colômbia a construção de um oleoduto que permitirá escoar o petróleo bruto e outros produtos para um porto colombiano no Pacífico, como via de acesso aos mercados asiáticos. Este projeto teve os altos e baixos característicos da relação bilateral entre os governos de Chávez e Álvaro Uribe.
O aumento das vendas de petróleo é só uma das fases da florescente relação bilateral sino-venezuelana, pois os dois países constituíram um fundo de investimentos de 6 milhões de dólares que será duplicado nos próximos anos. Os planos conjuntos incluem a construção de navios petroleiros e de uma refinaria.
A Venezuela, além disso, espera que em 2009 cheguem ao país os primeiros aviões de treinamento K-8, para as Forças Armadas, que substituirão as aeronaves de tecnologia americana que se encontram fora de serviço. "Nos vimos obrigados a buscar outros fornecedores porque Washington nos nega as peças de reposição e não podemos colocar a vida de nossos pilotos em perigo", disse Chávez.
Tradução: Eloise De Vylder
Visite o site do El País
Una WWW sobre SALUD
La salud es importante...por esto estoy colocando esa hoja Web sobre el tema (está escrita en idioma inglés)
miércoles, septiembre 24, 2008
Excelente información desde Argentina
La Agencia CNA nos informa de varios asunto con extraordinaria soltura...
Obama y las encuestas
Washington, 24 sep (EFE).- Los temores de los estadounidenses por la crisis financiera dan al candidato presidencial demócrata Barack Obama una ventaja de nueve puntos sobre el republicano John McCain, según una encuesta que publicó hoy el diario The Washington Post.
La encuesta, realizada en forma conjunta con la cadena ABC de televisión, encontró que McCain ha perdido la ventaja de dos puntos que registró en los días inmediatamente posteriores a la Convención Nacional Republicana a principios de mes.
Entre los 780 adultos que "probablemente" votarán el 4 de noviembre y que fueron encuestados del 19 al 22 de septiembre, el 52 por ciento indicó que votaría por Obama si las elecciones fueran ahora, y el 43 por ciento por McCain, una diferencia de nueve puntos.
Los resultados de la edición anterior de la encuesta, de una quincena antes, fueron del 47 por ciento para Obama y del 49 por ciento para McCain.
Por tanto, Obama ha aumentado su apoyo en cinco puntos, a la vez que McCain ha perdido seis.
En este nuevo sondeo, el 41 por ciento de los encuestados, un total de 1.082 incluyendo los que no piensan votar, dijo que está "muy preocupado" por el rumbo de la economía de EEUU y el 49 por ciento expresó "cierto grado de preocupación". Sólo el 17 por ciento de los entrevistados dijo que no le preocupa la situación económica.
El 53 por ciento de los encuestados indicó que confía en Obama para el manejo de la economía, comparado con el 39 por ciento para McCain, y el 51 por ciento cree que el candidato demócrata manejará mejor los problemas de las instituciones financieras, comparado con el 38 por ciento que da ese crédito a McCain.
Un cambio importante de opiniones que registra esta encuesta es que ahora el 49 por ciento de los posibles votantes opina que Obama tiene mejores ideas para el manejo de la guerra en Irak, y esto representa un aumento de 8 puntos porcentuales desde comienzos de septiembre.
Por su parte McCain ha perdido 6 puntos en esta materia y solo el 45 por ciento de los encuestados confía en su destreza para este conflicto.
El 50 por ciento de los encuestados indicó que la economía y el empleo son los asuntos de más peso en su decisión de voto en noviembre.
La competencia entre Obama, el primer mulato candidato a la presidencia de Estados Unidos, y McCain, el primer septuagenario que busca la presidencia por primera vez, ha generado un mayor interés de la ciudadanía, según la encuesta.
El 55 por ciento de los encuestados señaló que sigue con mucha atención el desarrollo de la campaña.
Un mes y medio antes de las elecciones presidenciales de 2004 sólo el 48 por ciento de los encuestados expresó ese interés, y a estas fechas en la elección de 2000 apenas el 27 por ciento de los votantes se ocupaba seriamente de la contienda. EFE
lunes, septiembre 22, 2008
MUSICA SIMCOPADA...
Vamos a oír esta excelente música sincopada y también la canción colombiana "la camisa negra"...
US Election Statistically Complicated
US Election Statistically Complicated
New president will have to deal with the economy and international affairs
Alfredo Ascanio (askain)
Published 2008-09-09 06:03 (KST)
A Gallup tracking poll over a 22-day period (Aug. 15 to Sept. 6) suggested that Senator Barack Obama with 46.77 percentage points led Senator John McCain with 43.36 percentage points, a small difference of 3.41 points.
But if you calculated the average percentage for the first 12 days of that period (Aug. 15 to Aug. 26) and you compare it with the average percentage for the 10 days following the conventions (Aug. 27 to Sept. 6) you will notice a difference. Interestingly, the difference between the two candidates moves from 1.17 points to 6.10 points in favor of Obama. In summary, the data indicate that the technical tie can be overcome, although the tie was confirmed again on Sept. 6.
What this means for the next 60 days of the electoral campaign is a crucial question.
The two candidates will try to mobilize their parties as well as the mass of undecided and independent voters.
Obama must demonstrate that he is a new leader and that people can rely on the change he proposes. McCain will continue to insist that his leadership is different from that of President Bush, said Matthew Baum, a professor at Harvard University, and David Redlawsk, a professor at Iowa University.
However, Professor Mark Sawyer of the University of Los Angles was more emphatic in saying that McCain must overcome the limited experience of Gov. Sarah Palin and the further failures of the Bush administration and its poor global image. Obama faces distrust as the first African-American candidate. He also must not let McCain commandeer his theme of change.
The vice presidential candidates are helping their running mates. John Biden, 65, is a Delaware Senator and has considerable experience in elections. He will help reduce the weaknesses of Obama. Palin, 44, must demonstrate that she is not an inexperienced politician and that can capture the female vote.
A question voters should ask themselves is how the United States will look over the next four years with one of these two candidates as president. The voters want economic prosperity and most certainly peace.
Voters also want the country to remain a leader in global decisions. There are several problems facing the new leaders in this regard: the political conflict with Russia over Georgia, the high price of oil and global warming.
Analysts have noted that the US is in competition with Russia, China and India.
Russia faces many problems related to the move from socialism to capitalism. The standard of living has deteriorated and nationalist movements threaten the unity of the country. Russia regards the war in Iraq as illegitimate and is angered that the US sent military advisers and aid to Georgia.
Georgia, a small country in the Caucasus Mountains with only five million inhabitants, has insisted on its independence. The Soviet regime recognized the independence of Georgia in 1920 but then invaded the country and transformed it into a Soviet republic in the year 1924. The new Georgia achieved its independence from Russia, but there is still tension in the area.
China continues to experiment with a new capitalist model with entrepreneurs and bankers because these players are the main forces for their development. China will continue to have trade disputes with the US and is due to join a free trade pact with 10 Southeast Asian nations.
India is a commercial market for the US. The conflict India / Pakistan can be resolved and China is close to India to seek their cooperation.
The future president of the US, in addition to addressing the problems of its domestic economy and seeking alliances with major power blocs, will also need to address matters relating to Latin America such as the free trade agreement with Colombia, negotiating business opportunities and policies with Venezuela, renewing alliances with Cuba and boosting its trade relations with Mexico to solve the immigration problem. It will also need to help promote the integration of South American countries and pursue a strategy that is not only commercial but also political.
©2008 OhmyNews
Other articles by reporter Alfredo Ascanio
New president will have to deal with the economy and international affairs
Alfredo Ascanio (askain)
Published 2008-09-09 06:03 (KST)
A Gallup tracking poll over a 22-day period (Aug. 15 to Sept. 6) suggested that Senator Barack Obama with 46.77 percentage points led Senator John McCain with 43.36 percentage points, a small difference of 3.41 points.
But if you calculated the average percentage for the first 12 days of that period (Aug. 15 to Aug. 26) and you compare it with the average percentage for the 10 days following the conventions (Aug. 27 to Sept. 6) you will notice a difference. Interestingly, the difference between the two candidates moves from 1.17 points to 6.10 points in favor of Obama. In summary, the data indicate that the technical tie can be overcome, although the tie was confirmed again on Sept. 6.
What this means for the next 60 days of the electoral campaign is a crucial question.
The two candidates will try to mobilize their parties as well as the mass of undecided and independent voters.
Obama must demonstrate that he is a new leader and that people can rely on the change he proposes. McCain will continue to insist that his leadership is different from that of President Bush, said Matthew Baum, a professor at Harvard University, and David Redlawsk, a professor at Iowa University.
However, Professor Mark Sawyer of the University of Los Angles was more emphatic in saying that McCain must overcome the limited experience of Gov. Sarah Palin and the further failures of the Bush administration and its poor global image. Obama faces distrust as the first African-American candidate. He also must not let McCain commandeer his theme of change.
The vice presidential candidates are helping their running mates. John Biden, 65, is a Delaware Senator and has considerable experience in elections. He will help reduce the weaknesses of Obama. Palin, 44, must demonstrate that she is not an inexperienced politician and that can capture the female vote.
A question voters should ask themselves is how the United States will look over the next four years with one of these two candidates as president. The voters want economic prosperity and most certainly peace.
Voters also want the country to remain a leader in global decisions. There are several problems facing the new leaders in this regard: the political conflict with Russia over Georgia, the high price of oil and global warming.
Analysts have noted that the US is in competition with Russia, China and India.
Russia faces many problems related to the move from socialism to capitalism. The standard of living has deteriorated and nationalist movements threaten the unity of the country. Russia regards the war in Iraq as illegitimate and is angered that the US sent military advisers and aid to Georgia.
Georgia, a small country in the Caucasus Mountains with only five million inhabitants, has insisted on its independence. The Soviet regime recognized the independence of Georgia in 1920 but then invaded the country and transformed it into a Soviet republic in the year 1924. The new Georgia achieved its independence from Russia, but there is still tension in the area.
China continues to experiment with a new capitalist model with entrepreneurs and bankers because these players are the main forces for their development. China will continue to have trade disputes with the US and is due to join a free trade pact with 10 Southeast Asian nations.
India is a commercial market for the US. The conflict India / Pakistan can be resolved and China is close to India to seek their cooperation.
The future president of the US, in addition to addressing the problems of its domestic economy and seeking alliances with major power blocs, will also need to address matters relating to Latin America such as the free trade agreement with Colombia, negotiating business opportunities and policies with Venezuela, renewing alliances with Cuba and boosting its trade relations with Mexico to solve the immigration problem. It will also need to help promote the integration of South American countries and pursue a strategy that is not only commercial but also political.
©2008 OhmyNews
Other articles by reporter Alfredo Ascanio
PARIS...para verlo en forma panorámica
Esta ciudad es una maravilla, pero más maravilloso es que no sólo puedes correr con el ratón a la izquierda y a la derecha sino que puedes hacer click en algunas ventanas de apartamentos que estén prendidas para ver a la gente que está allí.
domingo, septiembre 21, 2008
Crisis económica en USA
WASHINGTON (AFP) - Demócratas y republicanos discuten este domingo la histórica solicitud gubernamental de 700.000 millones de dólares para rescatar el sector financiero estadounidense, con la insistencia demócrata de que los endeudados dueños de viviendas, cuyas dificultades dispararon la crisis, también reciban auxilio.
El plan que el gobierno de George W. Bush envió al Congreso en la noche del viernes le otorga al secretario del Tesoro, Henry Paulson, amplia autoridad durante los próximos dos años para adquirir hasta 700.000 millones de dólares de activos vinculados a hipotecas en dificultades para disipar la grave crisis financiera, según el borrador de la propuesta.
Responsables del gobierno y del Congreso, incluyendo a Paulson, trabajan desde el sábado y durante todo el fin de semana sobre el paquete de rescate debido a la urgencia de la situación, que la administración Bush dice que sería catastrófica para el sistema financiero del país si no se la enfrenta.
Poco después del rescate oficial sin precedentes de la gigantesca firma aseguradora American International Group (AIG) y la toma de control de lo gigantes hipotecarios Fannie Mae y Freddie Mac, la legislación podría producir los cambios más significativos en legislación financiera desde la Gran Depresión de la década del 1930. Los legisladores esperan que se apruebe esta semana.
La presidenta de la Cámara de Representantes, Nancy Pelosi, dijo que los demócratas trabajarán con los republicanos para dar forma a la medida de rescate, pero insistió en que no se deben perder de vista los intereses de los norteamericanos de a pie.
En un comunicado en la noche del sábado, Pelosi dijo que el gobierno de Bush "ha solicitado al Congreso autorizar, en un plazo muy corto, una autoridad amplia y sin precedentes al secretario del Tesoso para enfrentar una crisis financiera de proporciones históricas". Los demócratas trabajarán con funcionarios del gobierno para encarar la crisis, agregó Pelosi, pero se debe mantener a salvo a la gente común para que ésta "conserve sus viviendas reduciendo las ejecuciones hipotecarias".
El líder de la mayoría demócrata en el Senado, Harry Reid, dijo: "Ahora es evidente por sí mismo que las políticas extremas de manos libres del gobierno de Bush han sido desastrosas (...) El pueblo estadounidense tiene todo el derecho de estar indignado porque estemos en esta situación". Reid dijo que la propuesta de la administración Bush "plantea serios temas" e insistió en que "necesitamos resolverlos rápidamente".
El líder de la minoría republicana en el Senado, Mitch McConnell, emitió un comunicado llamando a que el plan de rescate esté fuera de "planes partidarios".
En un resumen del plan revelado el sábado, el departamento del Tesoro dijo que gestores privados manejarían los activos bajo la dirección del departamento "para lograr los objetivos del programa".
El precio de los activos hipotecarios en problemas, cuyo valor se ha derrumbado en la peor caída del sector inmobiliario de Estados Unidos en décadas, se determinará "mediante mecanismos de mercado donde sea posible, tal como subastas en reversa". En una subasta común, el vendedor pide un precio de base y la puja lo va elevando. En una subasta en reversa, sin embargo, el comprador -o el gobierno de Estados Unidos- dice un precio y el vendedor decide si lo acepta o no.
La información del departamento del Tesoro sobre el proyecto no especifica qué tipo de instituciones financieras califican para el rescate, pero parece abrir la puerta a firmas extranjeras.
"Las instituciones financieras participantes deben tener operaciones significativas en Estados Unidos, a menos que el secretario (del Tesoro) tome una decisión, en consulta con el presidente de la Reserva Federal, de que se precise una calificación más amplia para estabilizar los mercados financieros".
El Tesoso estaría autorizado a adquirir activos hipotecarios de cualquier institución financiera con sede en Estados Unidos y estaría obligado a dar cuenta regularmente de sus actividades al Congreso.
sábado, septiembre 20, 2008
Qué eso de OCTAPODI ?
Si lo quieres conocer...entonces tienes que hacer click en el vínculo de arriba...
'The Trillion Dollar Meltdown'
'The Trillion Dollar Meltdown'
A look at the best selling book by Charles R. Morris
Alfredo Ascanio (askain)
Published 2008-09-20 17:03 (KST)
"We are living in the most reckless financial environment in recent history." This is the opinion of the writer Charles R. Morris in his book "The Trillion Dollar Meltdown."
According Morris, the abusive financial levers to investment banks and hedge funds and private equity practically have disturbed global markets.
Everything that has happened explains how we got here, and what is about to happen. After this accident our priorities will be very different. But things may get worse before they improve. The author of this book emphatically believes the death of liberalism is to come.
All this financial disaster what we call "a tsunami of dollars" reminds us that always exist in these events: Winners and losers.
For those who ask, "Why it happened?" Here in this book is a place to get some answers. It's a wonderful explanation of how it happened.
Morris joins the dots between the Keynesian liberalism of the 1960's, crippling stagflation of the 1970 and the free market of 1980 and 1990, before entering the world of ultra-cheap money and the crazy financial innovation.
In his brief but brilliant book, Morris describes how the US was put into the mess we're in... Few writers are as good as Morris to make financial analyses understandable and even fascinating.
"Reuters said that all this is a very serious financial crisis. We must anticipate that in the coming weeks and months ahead there may be other financial institutions with some problems," said Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund.
The crisis could also affect the world economy although both developing countries as the most developed show signs of resistance, said Strauss-Kahn to journalists after a meeting with finance ministers and Central Bank governors of the Persian Gulf States.
"It's a very serious financial crisis," he said. "We still have ahead of the consequences for some financial institutions. We have to anticipate that in the coming weeks and months ahead there may be other financial institutions with some problems."
Strauss-Kahn made these comments the day after the US authorities arranged an $85 billion loan for American International Group Inc., saving it from bankruptcy.
"This generated a certain calm in the altered global financial markets. What we are experiencing these days is an increased risk of low and uncertainty, but we still believe that the world economy will recover in 2009," said Strauss-Kahn. "It's important to see that this has an influence on the real economy, but the real economy is very strong both in developed countries as in emerging."
For example, the annual surplus of China is equal to 12 percent of its GDP. And that figure, in 2009, is equivalent to the annual deficit of the United States.
The lesson to be derived from this is that there should be stricter controls, as noted these days by McCain and Obama.
Alfredo Ascanio is a professor of economics at Simon Bolivar University in Caracas, Venezuela.
El libro lo encuentras en Amazon:
jueves, septiembre 18, 2008
Beyond crisis management
Sep 18th 2008
From The Economist print edition
EVERY financial crisis involves a tug of war between the tacticians and the strategists. The tacticians dash from skirmish to skirmish trying to control a crisis, deciding in each case whether taxpayers should bail out a distressed bank, firm or country. The strategists call for a more comprehensive approach to resolving the mess—often involving new government bodies to recapitalise banks or take over troubled assets.
The present crisis in America conforms to this pattern. So far, the government's response has been ad hoc and focused on crisis containment. The tacticians at the Federal Reserve and the Treasury have put plenty of taxpayers' money on the line—whether through the huge expansion in the central bank's liquidity facilities, the loan to Bear Stearns in March, or the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage giants, and, now, of AIG, a huge insurer. But they have focused on staving off catastrophe one bail-out at a time.
Now the strategists are pushing back. From across the political spectrum people are arguing that it is time for America to shift to a more systematic approach. In the past week Barney Frank, the leading Democrat on financial matters in the House of Representatives, Paul Volcker, a former chairman of the Fed, as well as writers of the editorial pages of the Wall Street Journal, have suggested that Congress may need to create a new agency to deal with the mess. All have pointed to the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC), a government body set up in 1989 to deal with the fallout of the savings and loan (S&L) bankruptcies.
Americans focus on the RTC because it is the country's most recent example of a comprehensive government plan to deal with a financial crisis. Between 1980 and 1994 almost 1,300 specialised mortgage lenders, known as thrifts, failed. Their combined assets amounted to more than $600 billion. By 1986 these failures had bankrupted the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation, the federal insurer for the thrift industry. At first the government tried to muddle through by trying to recapitalise the insurer. But the S&L mess escalated. In 1989 Congress created the RTC, an entirely new organisation, to dispose of the failed thrifts' assets in a way that minimised downward pressure on financial and property markets.
The RTC is not a perfect parallel for today's needs. It was set up—years after the S&L crisis began—to deal with the aftermath of widespread bank failures. Those who advocate comprehensive action today want to minimise the mess, not just clean up afterwards. Their proposals vary, but many who cite the RTC envisage an institution that buys troubled mortgage-backed securities (not only from failing institutions), putting a floor under their price. Some propose that the putative new agency should manage and write down the underlying mortgages, in effect combining the functions of the RTC with a Depression-era institution, called the Home Owners' Loan Corporation, which bought and restructured defaulting mortgages. Details are in short supply, but intellectual momentum is building for a broader solution.
Not a moment too soon, suggest the results of a new study by Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia, two IMF economists.* They examined all systemically important banking crises between 1970 and 2007, creating a database on how much financial crises cost and how they are resolved. The evidence is clear. Tactical crisis containment is expensive and frequently inadequate. In most financial meltdowns a comprehensive solution was required, and the sooner it was provided the better.
The study looks at 42 crises in all, spanning 37 countries. Like America today, most governments began with ad hoc crisis management. In 74% of cases, for instance, governments pumped emergency loans into failing banks or guaranteed their liabilities. An equally common tactic has been regulatory forbearance. Governments allowed banks to hold less capital than was normally required or softened their rules in other ways. These tactical responses, however, often did not work and ended up increasing the overall bill from a crisis. "All too often", the economists conclude, "central banks privilege stability over cost in the heat of the containment phase."
No such thing as a free crunch
Sooner or later most governments realise the need for a comprehensive solution to the crisis, involving public funds. This can take different forms, from bank recapitalisation to forgiveness of all the underlying debts. In three-quarters of the cases, governments shored up bank capital by, for instance, injecting preferred stock. About 60% of the time, governments set up institutions to manage distressed assets.
The evidence from these attempts is sobering for proponents of an RTC II. Some institutions worked well. In the early 1990s, for instance, Sweden successfully set up an asset-management company to take over and sell the bad loans from its biggest banks. But, in general, the paper argues, such government-owned asset-management firms are ineffective—often because politicians try to push them around.
On average, the study finds that government attempts to stanch systemic banking crises over the past three decades have cost 16% of GDP. That average hides enormous variation, much of which depends on how crises were handled. America's mess, even if it has already led to the demise of famous Wall Street firms, is far from finished. That is why the international lessons are worth taking seriously. Resolving a financial mess is cheaper, quicker and less painful if governments take a rounded approach. For the moment, the bail-out tacticians are in overdrive. But the strategists' moment is approaching.
A nação perdida
A nação perdida
Demétrio Magnoli
A Bolívia é uma prova do fracasso da teoria da modernização e do triunfo trágico das políticas calcadas sobre identidades étnicas. A teoria da modernização, tanto na vertente marxista quanto na conservadora, ambas positivistas, enxerga as identidades étnicas como anacronismos: sobrevivências de um passado atrasado destinadas a desaparecer pela ação trituradora do capitalismo. Mas as políticas étnicas bolivianas - conduzidas, em sentidos contrapostos, por Evo Morales e pela elite dirigente de Santa Cruz - não expressam teimosas realidades ancestrais: as identidades ameríndia, no Altiplano, e camba, no Oriente, são invenções recentes que funcionam como ferramentas no jogo de poder. Os plebiscitos que confirmaram o mandato do presidente, bem como os dos governadores oposicionistas do Oriente, atestam o triunfo dos dois lados na fabricação de identidades étnicas contrastantes. Para azar da Bolívia.
Não se deu a merecida atenção às fotografias das sessões da Assembléia Constituinte boliviana da qual emanou o texto constitucional que figura como pomo da discórdia. Os deputados da maioria exibiam vestimentas ameríndias tradicionais, algo que só não provoca estranheza a quem desconhece a Bolívia. Os ameríndios são 5 milhões, entre 9,1 milhões de bolivianos. Hoje, metade deles vive nas cidades. El Alto, a "cidade indígena" na periferia de La Paz, já tem 870 mil habitantes, que fazem da internet um nexo entre o mundo e as comunidades aimarás dos povoados do Altiplano. A língua espanhola, que foi o idioma apenas dos brancos e mestiços, atualmente é tão utilizada pelos índios quanto o quíchua e o aimará. Os ameríndios bolivianos não usam mais vestimentas "indígenas", exceto para vender produtos a turistas ou se são representantes de um projeto étnico na Assembléia Constituinte.
A "Bolívia ameríndia" é uma ruptura identitária. Os mineiros do estanho que deflagraram a Revolução Boliviana de 1952 tinham origem indígena, mas se definiam como trabalhadores e bolivianos, não como índios. O próprio Evo Morales alçou-se à notoriedade atuando como liderança sindical dos camponeses "cocaleros". Foi só mais tarde, quando iniciou a jornada rumo à presidência, que ele se aliou aos arautos de um "renascimento aimará" e a ONGs multiculturalistas internacionais. Dessa aliança nasceu o projeto de uma "Bolívia plurinacional", agora consagrado na letra de uma Constituição que acende a fagulha da guerra civil.
"Elite branca", esse é o epíteto usado pelos governistas para fazer referência aos oposicionistas da "Meia-Lua" boliviana. Entretanto, nos Departamentos orientais, elites e povo não se enxergam como brancos, mas como mestiços cambas. O movimento camba nasceu como reação à Revolução Boliviana dos mineiros de estanho, fabricando uma suposta identidade ancestral para o povo do Oriente. Segundo essa narrativa romântica, os cambas seriam os frutos da miscigenação entre brancos de origem espanhola e guaranis das terras baixas. O relicário de imagens dos guaranis "ancestrais" desempenha, em Santa Cruz, funções simbólicas paralelas às das "nações originárias" ameríndias em La Paz.
A ascensão de Evo Morales, portando a bandeira da restauração das "nações originárias", forneceu combustível para a transformação do projeto identitário camba num movimento popular. Evo e os seus continuam a crismar os opositores como "minoria oligárquica", mas sabem que não é bem assim. Eis o motivo pelo qual, diante das alternativas da repressão e da negociação, optaram pela segunda.
Paradoxalmente, a natureza trágica do impasse boliviano decorre da convergência de fundo entre La Paz e Santa Cruz, sintetizada na fórmula da "Bolívia plurinacional". Essa fórmula significa que todos estão de acordo em renunciar à nação boliviana. De acordo com ela, a Bolívia não existe, a não ser na forma de uma entidade territorial: uma moldura geográfica habitada por nações distintas, em tudo apartadas. O consenso da renúncia molda os dissensos políticos capazes de ensangüentar o país.
Nos tempos da Revolução Boliviana, a riqueza da Bolívia estava incrustada no subsolo do Altiplano indígena, sob a forma de extensos veios de cassiterita. Hoje, a riqueza encontra-se nos depósitos de hidrocarbonetos do subsolo do Oriente camba. Na cúpula da Unasul, dias atrás, Evo Morales defendeu a "unidade" do país e acusou os opositores de tramarem a "divisão". Na sua tradução da "Bolívia plurinacional", as "nações" bolivianas têm direito à autonomia, mas a "unidade" repousa sobre o controle central dos recursos naturais e das rendas dos hidrocarbonetos. Os governadores da "Meia-Lua", por sua vez, exigem que essas rendas sejam subordinadas ao princípio da descentralização e aos privilégios autonômicos departamentais.
A nação, nas palavras de Benedict Anderson, é uma "comunidade imaginada". Os bolivianos imaginaram-se como integrantes de uma nação única mesmo nas turbulências incessantes de quase toda a segunda metade do século 20. Agora, em razão das opções de suas elites políticas, tanto a do Altiplano quanto a do Oriente, imaginam-se como soldados de nações étnicas separadas pela fronteira intransponível do sangue. Na cúpula da Unasul, Hugo I atribuiu a crise à "ingerência do império americano" e a "uma espécie de greve" do comando militar boliviano. Mas, apesar do que pensa o Mussolini latino-americano, a crise é nacional e os chefes militares comandam um Exército rachado de alto a baixo pela mesma linha de corte que divide a nação. Manifestando seu respaldo ao governo de Evo Morales, o presidente equatoriano, Rafael Correa, prometeu que a América Latina não permitirá a conversão da Bolívia nos "Bálcãs". Ninguém, exceto os bolivianos, tem o poder de realizar esse desejo. Mas não será fácil, pois o requisito é uma renúncia à renúncia. Depois de tudo, alguém ainda quer ser simplesmente boliviano?
Demétrio Magnoli é sociólogo e doutor em Geografia Humana pela USP. E-mail: demetrio.magnoli@terra.com.br
Demétrio Magnoli
A Bolívia é uma prova do fracasso da teoria da modernização e do triunfo trágico das políticas calcadas sobre identidades étnicas. A teoria da modernização, tanto na vertente marxista quanto na conservadora, ambas positivistas, enxerga as identidades étnicas como anacronismos: sobrevivências de um passado atrasado destinadas a desaparecer pela ação trituradora do capitalismo. Mas as políticas étnicas bolivianas - conduzidas, em sentidos contrapostos, por Evo Morales e pela elite dirigente de Santa Cruz - não expressam teimosas realidades ancestrais: as identidades ameríndia, no Altiplano, e camba, no Oriente, são invenções recentes que funcionam como ferramentas no jogo de poder. Os plebiscitos que confirmaram o mandato do presidente, bem como os dos governadores oposicionistas do Oriente, atestam o triunfo dos dois lados na fabricação de identidades étnicas contrastantes. Para azar da Bolívia.
Não se deu a merecida atenção às fotografias das sessões da Assembléia Constituinte boliviana da qual emanou o texto constitucional que figura como pomo da discórdia. Os deputados da maioria exibiam vestimentas ameríndias tradicionais, algo que só não provoca estranheza a quem desconhece a Bolívia. Os ameríndios são 5 milhões, entre 9,1 milhões de bolivianos. Hoje, metade deles vive nas cidades. El Alto, a "cidade indígena" na periferia de La Paz, já tem 870 mil habitantes, que fazem da internet um nexo entre o mundo e as comunidades aimarás dos povoados do Altiplano. A língua espanhola, que foi o idioma apenas dos brancos e mestiços, atualmente é tão utilizada pelos índios quanto o quíchua e o aimará. Os ameríndios bolivianos não usam mais vestimentas "indígenas", exceto para vender produtos a turistas ou se são representantes de um projeto étnico na Assembléia Constituinte.
A "Bolívia ameríndia" é uma ruptura identitária. Os mineiros do estanho que deflagraram a Revolução Boliviana de 1952 tinham origem indígena, mas se definiam como trabalhadores e bolivianos, não como índios. O próprio Evo Morales alçou-se à notoriedade atuando como liderança sindical dos camponeses "cocaleros". Foi só mais tarde, quando iniciou a jornada rumo à presidência, que ele se aliou aos arautos de um "renascimento aimará" e a ONGs multiculturalistas internacionais. Dessa aliança nasceu o projeto de uma "Bolívia plurinacional", agora consagrado na letra de uma Constituição que acende a fagulha da guerra civil.
"Elite branca", esse é o epíteto usado pelos governistas para fazer referência aos oposicionistas da "Meia-Lua" boliviana. Entretanto, nos Departamentos orientais, elites e povo não se enxergam como brancos, mas como mestiços cambas. O movimento camba nasceu como reação à Revolução Boliviana dos mineiros de estanho, fabricando uma suposta identidade ancestral para o povo do Oriente. Segundo essa narrativa romântica, os cambas seriam os frutos da miscigenação entre brancos de origem espanhola e guaranis das terras baixas. O relicário de imagens dos guaranis "ancestrais" desempenha, em Santa Cruz, funções simbólicas paralelas às das "nações originárias" ameríndias em La Paz.
A ascensão de Evo Morales, portando a bandeira da restauração das "nações originárias", forneceu combustível para a transformação do projeto identitário camba num movimento popular. Evo e os seus continuam a crismar os opositores como "minoria oligárquica", mas sabem que não é bem assim. Eis o motivo pelo qual, diante das alternativas da repressão e da negociação, optaram pela segunda.
Paradoxalmente, a natureza trágica do impasse boliviano decorre da convergência de fundo entre La Paz e Santa Cruz, sintetizada na fórmula da "Bolívia plurinacional". Essa fórmula significa que todos estão de acordo em renunciar à nação boliviana. De acordo com ela, a Bolívia não existe, a não ser na forma de uma entidade territorial: uma moldura geográfica habitada por nações distintas, em tudo apartadas. O consenso da renúncia molda os dissensos políticos capazes de ensangüentar o país.
Nos tempos da Revolução Boliviana, a riqueza da Bolívia estava incrustada no subsolo do Altiplano indígena, sob a forma de extensos veios de cassiterita. Hoje, a riqueza encontra-se nos depósitos de hidrocarbonetos do subsolo do Oriente camba. Na cúpula da Unasul, dias atrás, Evo Morales defendeu a "unidade" do país e acusou os opositores de tramarem a "divisão". Na sua tradução da "Bolívia plurinacional", as "nações" bolivianas têm direito à autonomia, mas a "unidade" repousa sobre o controle central dos recursos naturais e das rendas dos hidrocarbonetos. Os governadores da "Meia-Lua", por sua vez, exigem que essas rendas sejam subordinadas ao princípio da descentralização e aos privilégios autonômicos departamentais.
A nação, nas palavras de Benedict Anderson, é uma "comunidade imaginada". Os bolivianos imaginaram-se como integrantes de uma nação única mesmo nas turbulências incessantes de quase toda a segunda metade do século 20. Agora, em razão das opções de suas elites políticas, tanto a do Altiplano quanto a do Oriente, imaginam-se como soldados de nações étnicas separadas pela fronteira intransponível do sangue. Na cúpula da Unasul, Hugo I atribuiu a crise à "ingerência do império americano" e a "uma espécie de greve" do comando militar boliviano. Mas, apesar do que pensa o Mussolini latino-americano, a crise é nacional e os chefes militares comandam um Exército rachado de alto a baixo pela mesma linha de corte que divide a nação. Manifestando seu respaldo ao governo de Evo Morales, o presidente equatoriano, Rafael Correa, prometeu que a América Latina não permitirá a conversão da Bolívia nos "Bálcãs". Ninguém, exceto os bolivianos, tem o poder de realizar esse desejo. Mas não será fácil, pois o requisito é uma renúncia à renúncia. Depois de tudo, alguém ainda quer ser simplesmente boliviano?
Demétrio Magnoli é sociólogo e doutor em Geografia Humana pela USP. E-mail: demetrio.magnoli@terra.com.br
El capitalismo en el espejo
El capitalismo en el espejo
Por Felipe González
El País
Un año después del comienzo de la crisis del sistema financiero de Estados Unidos y su rápido contagio a otras áreas centrales, seguimos sin diagnóstico y, por tanto, sin terapia. Es una crisis extraña. Por el momento, ha liquidado la extendida creencia de que el mercado lo arregla todo y solo. Es decir, la teoría dominante desde los años 90 del "todo mercado", con un rechazo fundamentalista a la intervención regulatoria.
El desconcierto lleva a la Unión Europea a hacer lo contrario de lo que se hace en Estados Unidos en política monetaria, aunque los problemas de inflación sean los mismos. En los países centrales, sigue cayendo la actividad y los precios se resisten a bajar.
En la UE, en general, porque el Reino Unido va por su rumbo, hay gran resistencia a las intervenciones consideradas contradictorias con el libre funcionamiento del mercado. En Estados Unidos, vemos acciones como la nacionalización encubierta de las sociedades que controlaban casi la mitad del mercado hipotecario, con una intervención de 200.000 millones de dólares.
Así, podríamos seguir poniendo ejemplos de actuaciones al menos dispares para enfrentar la misma crisis. La paradoja es que el comportamiento pragmático, chocando con la ideología neoliberal, se da en la cuna doctrinal de esta teoría, en tanto que en la UE, tan crítica siempre de ese neoliberalismo, hay una renuencia muy fuerte a la intervención para contrarrestar la sintomatología de la crisis.
Es verdad, casi la única verdad, que se sigue sabiendo poco sobre las causas profundas de esta crisis global y que nadie se atreve a predecir los efectos ni la duración. Ha habido otras con anterioridad, como la que indujo hace una década la crisis financiera de los mercados emergentes, que terminó contagiando a los centrales en los albores del nuevo siglo.
Ahora ha empezado al revés. Son los países centrales, comenzando por Estados Unidos, los generadores de la crisis financiera. Como hace una década, pero al revés, hay quienes dicen que los países emergentes están desmarcándose de ella, pero tengo la convicción, que entonces también expresé, de que se contagiará el conjunto del sistema y tendrá efectos sobre la economía real de los países emergentes, no sólo de los centrales.
Subyace a la crisis actual una situación nueva, inducida por dos factores: la evolución de los precios de las materias primas, sobre todo energéticas, que han trasladado masivamente el capital a los países productores y a los que han mostrado capacidad de generar riqueza y ahorro como nuevas potencias emergentes (China o la India). El llamado Occidente desarrollado tiene que pagar en el futuro lo que ha gastado ya, en tanto que las zonas productoras de energía y los grandes emergentes han ahorrado lo que podrán gastar o invertir en ese mismo futuro.
Y en todas partes la fuerte tensión inflacionista es el factor más preocupante.
El "triunfo pleno" del sistema capitalista o de mercado, con las variantes que deseen, desde China hasta Chile, tras la caída del modelo comunista, lo ha dejado sin alternativa sistémica. No se puede considerar alternativa ninguna de las utopías regresivas que aparecen de vez en cuando con poco recorrido y menos consistencia.
Pero estamos haciendo del mercado algo que no es. Una especie de régimen que va más allá de la economía de mercado para llevarnos a una sociedad de mercado, cada vez más global y pretendidamente autorregulada por la mano invisible.
De broma, pero en serio, podríamos decir que el capitalismo no se contrapone al comunismo, por extinción de éste, sino que se mira en su propio espejo y constata que la imagen que le devuelve es fea y fuera de control.
Durante años, cuando las cosas marchaban bien globalmente, aun con muchos desajustes y desigualdades lacerantes, las miradas en el espejo han sido autocomplacientes. Ahora, que estamos navegando en la incertidumbre o con la certidumbre de que esto va mal, la imagen que se refleja no satisface a nadie.
Si las consecuencias no fueran tan duras, e incluso dramáticas, sería divertido contemplar al sistema triunfante sin saber qué hacer consigo mismo, sin poder compararse con otros peores y sin poder encontrar culpables. Pero no da la situación para divertirse, y hay que actuar.
Primero, con el mayor pragmatismo posible y sin pérdida de tiempo, porque las teorías tradicionales no nos ofrecen soluciones a la nueva realidad que aparece fuera de libreto. Esto vale para los gobiernos europeos y para la propia Unión Europea y su Banco Central, porque es muy peligroso y arriesgado seguir esperando con estos tipos de interés y esta falta de liquidez.
Segundo, intentando buscar un papel para la política con mayúsculas, capaz de hacer más previsible la evolución futura de este mercado global que escapa a los poderes establecidos en la sociedad industrial.
Un mercado global sin reglas o con las de la famosa "mano invisible" nos llevará en el futuro a otras crisis, no cíclicas, como decíamos antes, sino imprevisibles y sorpresivas, como la que estamos viviendo ahora. ¿No se está incubando la siguiente crisis financiera a través de las operaciones a futuro sobre materias primas y alimentación con un escaso nivel de afianzamiento?
Es decir, la famosa gobernanza (papel ineludible de la política) permanece en el ámbito de lo local-nacional y de los obsoletos organismos financieros del pasado, en tanto que los fenómenos económicos y financieros más relevantes se mueven en el ámbito global sin gobierno alguno. Por si fuera poco, la era posterior a la caída del Muro de Berlín ha alimentado un descrédito de la política como un estorbo al desarrollo sin reglas de la nueva era de la globalización.
Cargada de paradojas y plena de contradicciones la situación en que nos encontramos, pasamos de pedir a los responsables políticos que no interfieran, que no regulen, que dejen libertad a los mercados, a reclamar que arreglen los desaguisados a los que den lugar, incluso cuando la crisis, por sus causas y consecuencias, está más allá de sus competencias y capacidades locales-nacionales.
Más que nunca, necesitaríamos una acción en el nivel de la UE y una concertación transatlántica eficaz para continuar. Los responsables del comienzo de esta situación, que alcanza ya dimensiones globales, tienen la obligación de dar respuestas a sus áreas y al mundo. Pero no se ve en el horizonte, y esto crea más desasosiego.
Por Felipe González
El País
Un año después del comienzo de la crisis del sistema financiero de Estados Unidos y su rápido contagio a otras áreas centrales, seguimos sin diagnóstico y, por tanto, sin terapia. Es una crisis extraña. Por el momento, ha liquidado la extendida creencia de que el mercado lo arregla todo y solo. Es decir, la teoría dominante desde los años 90 del "todo mercado", con un rechazo fundamentalista a la intervención regulatoria.
El desconcierto lleva a la Unión Europea a hacer lo contrario de lo que se hace en Estados Unidos en política monetaria, aunque los problemas de inflación sean los mismos. En los países centrales, sigue cayendo la actividad y los precios se resisten a bajar.
En la UE, en general, porque el Reino Unido va por su rumbo, hay gran resistencia a las intervenciones consideradas contradictorias con el libre funcionamiento del mercado. En Estados Unidos, vemos acciones como la nacionalización encubierta de las sociedades que controlaban casi la mitad del mercado hipotecario, con una intervención de 200.000 millones de dólares.
Así, podríamos seguir poniendo ejemplos de actuaciones al menos dispares para enfrentar la misma crisis. La paradoja es que el comportamiento pragmático, chocando con la ideología neoliberal, se da en la cuna doctrinal de esta teoría, en tanto que en la UE, tan crítica siempre de ese neoliberalismo, hay una renuencia muy fuerte a la intervención para contrarrestar la sintomatología de la crisis.
Es verdad, casi la única verdad, que se sigue sabiendo poco sobre las causas profundas de esta crisis global y que nadie se atreve a predecir los efectos ni la duración. Ha habido otras con anterioridad, como la que indujo hace una década la crisis financiera de los mercados emergentes, que terminó contagiando a los centrales en los albores del nuevo siglo.
Ahora ha empezado al revés. Son los países centrales, comenzando por Estados Unidos, los generadores de la crisis financiera. Como hace una década, pero al revés, hay quienes dicen que los países emergentes están desmarcándose de ella, pero tengo la convicción, que entonces también expresé, de que se contagiará el conjunto del sistema y tendrá efectos sobre la economía real de los países emergentes, no sólo de los centrales.
Subyace a la crisis actual una situación nueva, inducida por dos factores: la evolución de los precios de las materias primas, sobre todo energéticas, que han trasladado masivamente el capital a los países productores y a los que han mostrado capacidad de generar riqueza y ahorro como nuevas potencias emergentes (China o la India). El llamado Occidente desarrollado tiene que pagar en el futuro lo que ha gastado ya, en tanto que las zonas productoras de energía y los grandes emergentes han ahorrado lo que podrán gastar o invertir en ese mismo futuro.
Y en todas partes la fuerte tensión inflacionista es el factor más preocupante.
El "triunfo pleno" del sistema capitalista o de mercado, con las variantes que deseen, desde China hasta Chile, tras la caída del modelo comunista, lo ha dejado sin alternativa sistémica. No se puede considerar alternativa ninguna de las utopías regresivas que aparecen de vez en cuando con poco recorrido y menos consistencia.
Pero estamos haciendo del mercado algo que no es. Una especie de régimen que va más allá de la economía de mercado para llevarnos a una sociedad de mercado, cada vez más global y pretendidamente autorregulada por la mano invisible.
De broma, pero en serio, podríamos decir que el capitalismo no se contrapone al comunismo, por extinción de éste, sino que se mira en su propio espejo y constata que la imagen que le devuelve es fea y fuera de control.
Durante años, cuando las cosas marchaban bien globalmente, aun con muchos desajustes y desigualdades lacerantes, las miradas en el espejo han sido autocomplacientes. Ahora, que estamos navegando en la incertidumbre o con la certidumbre de que esto va mal, la imagen que se refleja no satisface a nadie.
Si las consecuencias no fueran tan duras, e incluso dramáticas, sería divertido contemplar al sistema triunfante sin saber qué hacer consigo mismo, sin poder compararse con otros peores y sin poder encontrar culpables. Pero no da la situación para divertirse, y hay que actuar.
Primero, con el mayor pragmatismo posible y sin pérdida de tiempo, porque las teorías tradicionales no nos ofrecen soluciones a la nueva realidad que aparece fuera de libreto. Esto vale para los gobiernos europeos y para la propia Unión Europea y su Banco Central, porque es muy peligroso y arriesgado seguir esperando con estos tipos de interés y esta falta de liquidez.
Segundo, intentando buscar un papel para la política con mayúsculas, capaz de hacer más previsible la evolución futura de este mercado global que escapa a los poderes establecidos en la sociedad industrial.
Un mercado global sin reglas o con las de la famosa "mano invisible" nos llevará en el futuro a otras crisis, no cíclicas, como decíamos antes, sino imprevisibles y sorpresivas, como la que estamos viviendo ahora. ¿No se está incubando la siguiente crisis financiera a través de las operaciones a futuro sobre materias primas y alimentación con un escaso nivel de afianzamiento?
Es decir, la famosa gobernanza (papel ineludible de la política) permanece en el ámbito de lo local-nacional y de los obsoletos organismos financieros del pasado, en tanto que los fenómenos económicos y financieros más relevantes se mueven en el ámbito global sin gobierno alguno. Por si fuera poco, la era posterior a la caída del Muro de Berlín ha alimentado un descrédito de la política como un estorbo al desarrollo sin reglas de la nueva era de la globalización.
Cargada de paradojas y plena de contradicciones la situación en que nos encontramos, pasamos de pedir a los responsables políticos que no interfieran, que no regulen, que dejen libertad a los mercados, a reclamar que arreglen los desaguisados a los que den lugar, incluso cuando la crisis, por sus causas y consecuencias, está más allá de sus competencias y capacidades locales-nacionales.
Más que nunca, necesitaríamos una acción en el nivel de la UE y una concertación transatlántica eficaz para continuar. Los responsables del comienzo de esta situación, que alcanza ya dimensiones globales, tienen la obligación de dar respuestas a sus áreas y al mundo. Pero no se ve en el horizonte, y esto crea más desasosiego.
The presidential campaign and the U.S economy
The presidential campaign and the U.S economy
The hot new topic to persuade and attract votes
Alfredo Ascanio (askain)
The former senator Phil Gramm of Texas, economic adviser to McCain was quoted as saying: that the United States there is only a "mental recession" and that the country had become "a nation of" mourners ".
McCain in turn said: "There is an enormous chaos in our financial markets and on Wall Street." "People are scared by these developments. I believe that still the fundamentals of our economy are strong" and then emphasize: "But these moments are very, very difficult. And I promise that we will never put again America in this position. We will clean up Wall Street. Let's government reform, because that this is a failure”.
His statement about the soundness of the fundamentals of the economy is an issue that has developed many times, for almost a year, usually adding that times are hard or that people are wrong.
However, his reiteration of the observation on Monday following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers accentuated the high loss of stock market since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, which is has quickly become a political problem.
Then Obama said: "Let's be clear: what we have seen in recent days is none other than the final verdict on an economic philosophy that has failed completely”.
During the week closing of the presidential race, Obama has been pointing to economic affairs on the issue, after the collapse of Wall Street, to illustrate the need for greater oversight and stronger regulation in the financial sector. But he faces a challenge at this time with Senator John McCain that has adopted a reformer and populist message with the words: "clean up Wall Street".
The basic question is whether Obama can define his candidacy around the economy, like other Democrats who have done previously, and also whether Obama can be seen as the connection with the needs that arise Americans. Then, to persuade Obama continued by saying that:
"Instead of offering concrete plans to resolve these issues, Senator McCain has offered the oldest trick in Washington: You pass the ball to a commission to study the problem".
"But here's the thing - this is not the 9 / 11. We know how we got into this mess. What we need now is leadership to seek immediate solutions”.
Obama calls for more aggressive regulation on Wall Street and a new emphasis on institutional innovation, and oppose issues such as tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans.
"It's difficult to see how Senator McCain is going to get that emerge from this crisis doing the same things with the same old players. Make no mistake: my opponent has been in operation for four years with policies that lead to an imbalance in the economy. For Wall Street would be more convincing if not offer more tax cuts. "
However, neither McCain nor Obama had based their campaign messages across the economy. Obama was the candidate of change in relation to the Iraq war. And largely McCain appealed to Republicans for demonstrating their credentials on national security and support for the war.
Now the economy will be the hot topics of the presidential campaign to recall that phrase years ago "the economy stupid" was said during the campaign of Bill Clinton. In short: McClain and Obama have no choice but to urgently adapt to these new facts of a very severe economic crisis.
The two candidates are right because the economic recovery produces positive effects, especially if U.S. withdrew in time of war in Iraq.
For many years people asked to economists promote policies to raise the Gross Domestic Product, but that was only economic growth and not development. The development is to use resources of production with productivity and also fairly distribute wealth, within a democratic system.
In USA for the year 1933 wages and salaries accounted 74% of national income even with unemployment at 25% of the total employed persons, and profitability or revenue to businesses 8%. Then in 1947, during the post-war, revenue to companies accounted 32% of the country's income and payment of wages for 63% of national’s income and in an atmosphere of full employment. Then, the country has to achieve these indicators again and leave their high difficulty.
The hot new topic to persuade and attract votes
Alfredo Ascanio (askain)
The former senator Phil Gramm of Texas, economic adviser to McCain was quoted as saying: that the United States there is only a "mental recession" and that the country had become "a nation of" mourners ".
McCain in turn said: "There is an enormous chaos in our financial markets and on Wall Street." "People are scared by these developments. I believe that still the fundamentals of our economy are strong" and then emphasize: "But these moments are very, very difficult. And I promise that we will never put again America in this position. We will clean up Wall Street. Let's government reform, because that this is a failure”.
His statement about the soundness of the fundamentals of the economy is an issue that has developed many times, for almost a year, usually adding that times are hard or that people are wrong.
However, his reiteration of the observation on Monday following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers accentuated the high loss of stock market since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, which is has quickly become a political problem.
Then Obama said: "Let's be clear: what we have seen in recent days is none other than the final verdict on an economic philosophy that has failed completely”.
During the week closing of the presidential race, Obama has been pointing to economic affairs on the issue, after the collapse of Wall Street, to illustrate the need for greater oversight and stronger regulation in the financial sector. But he faces a challenge at this time with Senator John McCain that has adopted a reformer and populist message with the words: "clean up Wall Street".
The basic question is whether Obama can define his candidacy around the economy, like other Democrats who have done previously, and also whether Obama can be seen as the connection with the needs that arise Americans. Then, to persuade Obama continued by saying that:
"Instead of offering concrete plans to resolve these issues, Senator McCain has offered the oldest trick in Washington: You pass the ball to a commission to study the problem".
"But here's the thing - this is not the 9 / 11. We know how we got into this mess. What we need now is leadership to seek immediate solutions”.
Obama calls for more aggressive regulation on Wall Street and a new emphasis on institutional innovation, and oppose issues such as tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans.
"It's difficult to see how Senator McCain is going to get that emerge from this crisis doing the same things with the same old players. Make no mistake: my opponent has been in operation for four years with policies that lead to an imbalance in the economy. For Wall Street would be more convincing if not offer more tax cuts. "
However, neither McCain nor Obama had based their campaign messages across the economy. Obama was the candidate of change in relation to the Iraq war. And largely McCain appealed to Republicans for demonstrating their credentials on national security and support for the war.
Now the economy will be the hot topics of the presidential campaign to recall that phrase years ago "the economy stupid" was said during the campaign of Bill Clinton. In short: McClain and Obama have no choice but to urgently adapt to these new facts of a very severe economic crisis.
The two candidates are right because the economic recovery produces positive effects, especially if U.S. withdrew in time of war in Iraq.
For many years people asked to economists promote policies to raise the Gross Domestic Product, but that was only economic growth and not development. The development is to use resources of production with productivity and also fairly distribute wealth, within a democratic system.
In USA for the year 1933 wages and salaries accounted 74% of national income even with unemployment at 25% of the total employed persons, and profitability or revenue to businesses 8%. Then in 1947, during the post-war, revenue to companies accounted 32% of the country's income and payment of wages for 63% of national’s income and in an atmosphere of full employment. Then, the country has to achieve these indicators again and leave their high difficulty.
miércoles, septiembre 17, 2008
La campaña y la economía en USA
El ex senador Phil Gramm de Texas, asesor en asuntos económicos de McCain fue citado y dijo: que en los Estados Unidos sólo existe una "recesión mental" y que el país se había convertido en "una nación de :" dolientes ".
McCain a su vez señaló : "Hay un enorme caos en nuestros mercados financieros y en Wall Street". "La gente está asustada por estos acontecimientos. Creo que todavía los fundamentos de nuestra economía son fuertes"; para luego enfatizar: "Pero estas son momentos muy, muy difícil. Y yo les prometo que nunca pondremos a América en esta posición de nuevo. Vamos a limpiar de Wall Street. Vamos a la reforma del gobierno, por que esto es un fracaso."
Su declaración acerca de la solidez de los fundamentos de la economía es un tema que ha desarrollado muchas veces, durante casi un año, por lo general agregando que los tiempos son difíciles o que las personas están mal. Sin embargo, su reiteración de la observación el lunes, tras la quiebra de Lehman Brothers acentuó las elevadas pérdido del mercado de valores desde los ataques terroristas del 11 de septiembre de 2001, lo cual se ha se convertido rápidamente en un problema político.
Por eso Obama señaló lo siguiente:
"Vamos a ser claros: lo que hemos visto los últimos días es nada menos que el veredicto final sobre una filosofía económica que ha fracasado por completo".
En la semana de clausura de la carrera presidencial, Obama ha estado señalando asuntos sobre la cuestión económica, después del colapso de Wall Street, para ilustrar la necesidad de una mayor regulación y supervisión más fuerte en el sector financiero. Pero él se enfrenta a un desafío en este momento con el Senador John McCain el cual ha adoptado un mensaje populista y reformador con la frase : "limpiar Wall Street."
La cuestión básica es si Obama puede definir su candidatura en torno a la economía, al igual que otros demócratas que lo han hecho con anterioridad; y también si Obama puede ser visto como la conexión con las necesidades que se plantean los estadounidenses. Entonces, para persuadir siguió diciendo Obama lo siguiente:
"En lugar de ofrecer planes concretos para resolver estas cuestiones, el senador McCain ha ofrecido el más viejo truco de Washington : Usted pasa la pelota a una Comisión para estudiar el problema".
"Pero aquí está la cosa - esto no es el 9 / 11. Sabemos cómo llegamos en este lío. Lo que necesitamos ahora es un liderazgo que busque soluciones inmediatas."
Obama pide una regulación más agresiva en Wall Street y un nuevo énfasis en la innovación institucional, y se oponen a temas como los recortes de impuestos para los estadounidenses más ricos.
"Es difícil entender cómo el senador McCain va a conseguir que salgamos de esta crisis haciendo las mismas cosas con los mismos viejos jugadores. No nos equivoquemos: mi oponente ha estado en funcionando durante cuatro años con políticas que llevan a la economía a un desequilibrio. Para Wall Street sería más convincente si no se ofrecieran más recortes de impuestos".
No obstante, Ni Obama ni McCain habían basado sus respectivas campañas a través de mensajes económicos. Obama fue el candidato del cambio en relación a la guerra de Irak. Y en gran medida McCain hizo un llamamiento a los republicanos para que avalaran sus credenciales de seguridad nacional y el apoyo a la guerra.
Ahora la ECONOMIA será el temas caliente de la campaña presidencial para recordar aquella frase de hace años "la economía estúpido" que se dijo durante la campaña de Bill Clinton. En resumen: McClain y Obama no tienen otra opción que adaptarse con urgencia a estos nuevos hechos de una crisis económica muy severa.
Fed rescues AIG with $85 billion loan for 80% stake
Fed rescues AIG with $85 billion loan for 80% stake
By Edmund L. Andrews Published: September 17, 2008
WASHINGTON: Acting to avert a possible financial crisis worldwide, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board reversed course Tuesday and agreed to an $85 billion bailout that would give the U.S. government an ownership stake in the troubled insurance giant American International Group.
The decision, announced by the Fed only two weeks after the Treasury Department took over the quasi-government mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, is the most radical intervention in private business in the central bank's history.
With time running out after AIG failed to get a bank loan to avoid bankruptcy, Treasury Secterary Henry Paulson Jr. and the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke convened a meeting with House and Senate leaders on Capitol Hill at about 6:30 p.m. Tuesday to explain the rescue plan.
They emerged just after 7:30 p.m. with Paulson and Bernanke looking grim but top lawmakers generally expressing support for the plan. But the bailout is likely to prove controversial, because it effectively puts taxpayer money at risk while protecting bad investments made by AIG and other institutions does business with.
What frightened Fed and Treasury officials was not simply the prospect of another giant corporate bankruptcy, but AIG's role as an enormous provider of financial insurance, which effectively requires it cover losses suffered by other institutions in the instance of defaults of securities that they have purchased. That means AIG is potentially on the hook for securities that were once considered safe.
If AIG had collapsed — and been unable to pay all of its insurance claims — institutional investors around the world would have been instantly forced to reappraise the value of billions of dollars in debt securities, which in turn would have reduced their own capital and the value of their own debt.
"It would have been a chain reaction," said Uwe Reinhardt, a professor of economics at Princeton University. "The spillover effects could have been incredible."
Financial markets, which on Monday had plunged over worries about AIG's possible collapse, reacted with relief to the news of the bailout. In anticipation of a deal, stocks about 1 percent in the United States on Tuesday and were up about 2 percent in early trading in Asian markets Wednesday.
Still, the move will likely start an intense political debate during the presidential election campaign over who is to blame for the financial crisis that prompted the rescue.
Representative Barney Frank, Democrat of Massachusetts and chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said Paulson and Bernanke had not requested any new legislative authority for the bailout at the meeting Tuesday.
"The secretary and the chairman of the Fed, two Bush appointees, came down here and said, 'We're from the government, we're here to help them,' " Frank said. "I mean this is one more affirmation that the lack of regulation has caused serious problems. That the private market screwed itself up and they need the government to come help them unscrew it."
The decision was a remarkable turnabout by the Bush administration and Paulson, who had flatly refused over the weekend to risk taxpayer money to prevent the collapse of Lehman Brothers or the distressed sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America. Earlier this year, the government bailed out another investment bank, Bear Stearns, by engineering a sale to JPMorgan Chase that left taxpayers on the hook for up to $29 billion of bad investments by Bear Stearns. The government hoped at the time that this unusual step would both calm markets and lead to a recovery by the financial system. But critics warned at the time that it would only encourage others to seek bailouts, and the eventual costs to the government would be staggering.
The decision to rescue AIG came on the same day that the Fed decided to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2 percent, turning aside hopes by many on Wall Street that the Fed would try to shore up confidence by cutting rates once again.
Fed and Treasury officials initially had turned a cold shoulder to AIG, when company executives pleaded on Sunday night for the Fed to provide a $40 billion bridge loan to stave off a crippling downgrade of its credit ratings as a result of tens of billions of dollars of losses related to insurance investments that have turned sour.
But government officials reluctantly backed away from their tough-minded approach after a failed attempt to line up private financing with help from JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, which told U.S. government officials that they simply could not raise the money given both the general angst in credit markets and the specific fears of problems with AIG.
Another reason that AIG posed systemic risk is that it might have been forced to liquidate real estate and other assets at fire sale prices — a move that could drive property prices lowers and force countless other companies to mark down the value of their own holdings.
The complexity of AIG's business, and the fact that it does business with thousands of companies around the globe, make its survival critical at a time when there is stress throughout the financial system worldwide.
"It's the interconnectedness and the fear of the unknown, meaning the impact of a failure," said Roger Altman, a former Treasury official under President Bill Clinton. "But size is a factor, you can't ignore that. The prospect of world's largest insurer failing, together with the interconnectedness and the uncertainty about the collateral damage – that's why it's scaring people so much."
AIG is a sprawling empire built by Maurice "Hank" Greenberg who acquired hundreds of businesses all over the world until he was ousted amid an accounting scandal in 2005. Many of AIG's subsidiaries wrote insurance of various types. Others made home loans and leased aircraft. The diverse array of companies were more valuable under a single corporate parent like AIG, because business cycles offset other, giving AIG a relatively smooth stream of revenue and income.
After Greenberg's departure, AIG restated its books over a five-year period and instituted conservative new accounting policies. But before the company could really rebuild itself, it became embroiled in the mortgage crisis. Some of its insurance companies ended up with mortgage-backed securities on their books, for example. But AIG's downfall involved a new kind of insurance its financial products unit offered investors in complex debt securities.
Its stock tumbled faster this year as first the debt securities lost value, and then the derivatives-based insurance contracts came under a cloud.
The Fed's extraordinary rescue of AIG underscores how much fear remains about the destructive potential of the complex financial instruments, like credit default swaps, that brought AIG to its knees. The market for such instruments has exploded in recent years, but it is almost entirely unregulated. When AIG began to teeter in the last few days, it became clear that if it defaulted on its commitments under the swaps, it could set off a devastating chain reaction through the financial system.
"We are witnessing a rather unique event in the history of the United States," said Suresh Sundaresan, the Chase Manhattan Bank professor of economics and finance at Columbia University, in New York. He thought the near brush with catastrophe would bring about an acceleration of efforts within the Treasury and the Fed to put safety controls on the use of credit default swaps.
Most of AIG's subsidiaries are considered healthy and stable, and there is little question about who regulates them. AIG's crisis grew primarily out of its financial products unit, which dealt in complex debt securities and credit default swaps.
The swaps are not securities and are not regulated by the SEC And while they perform the same function as an insurance policy they are not insurance in the conventional sense, so insurance regulators do not monitor them either.
AIG's complex debt securities had already lost billions of dollars in value in the months before the crisis began, because their value depends on home values. But in the last two days, the swaps AIG's financial products unit had sold began eating up billions of dollars of AIG's cash and liquid assets. That ultimately paralyzed AIG because it could not find a way to keep up with the fast-growing need to provide cash under the terms of its swap contracts.
This article was reported by Edmund L. Andrews, Michael J. de la Merced and Mary Williams Walsh and written by Andrews.
By Edmund L. Andrews Published: September 17, 2008
WASHINGTON: Acting to avert a possible financial crisis worldwide, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board reversed course Tuesday and agreed to an $85 billion bailout that would give the U.S. government an ownership stake in the troubled insurance giant American International Group.
The decision, announced by the Fed only two weeks after the Treasury Department took over the quasi-government mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, is the most radical intervention in private business in the central bank's history.
With time running out after AIG failed to get a bank loan to avoid bankruptcy, Treasury Secterary Henry Paulson Jr. and the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke convened a meeting with House and Senate leaders on Capitol Hill at about 6:30 p.m. Tuesday to explain the rescue plan.
They emerged just after 7:30 p.m. with Paulson and Bernanke looking grim but top lawmakers generally expressing support for the plan. But the bailout is likely to prove controversial, because it effectively puts taxpayer money at risk while protecting bad investments made by AIG and other institutions does business with.
What frightened Fed and Treasury officials was not simply the prospect of another giant corporate bankruptcy, but AIG's role as an enormous provider of financial insurance, which effectively requires it cover losses suffered by other institutions in the instance of defaults of securities that they have purchased. That means AIG is potentially on the hook for securities that were once considered safe.
If AIG had collapsed — and been unable to pay all of its insurance claims — institutional investors around the world would have been instantly forced to reappraise the value of billions of dollars in debt securities, which in turn would have reduced their own capital and the value of their own debt.
"It would have been a chain reaction," said Uwe Reinhardt, a professor of economics at Princeton University. "The spillover effects could have been incredible."
Financial markets, which on Monday had plunged over worries about AIG's possible collapse, reacted with relief to the news of the bailout. In anticipation of a deal, stocks about 1 percent in the United States on Tuesday and were up about 2 percent in early trading in Asian markets Wednesday.
Still, the move will likely start an intense political debate during the presidential election campaign over who is to blame for the financial crisis that prompted the rescue.
Representative Barney Frank, Democrat of Massachusetts and chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said Paulson and Bernanke had not requested any new legislative authority for the bailout at the meeting Tuesday.
"The secretary and the chairman of the Fed, two Bush appointees, came down here and said, 'We're from the government, we're here to help them,' " Frank said. "I mean this is one more affirmation that the lack of regulation has caused serious problems. That the private market screwed itself up and they need the government to come help them unscrew it."
The decision was a remarkable turnabout by the Bush administration and Paulson, who had flatly refused over the weekend to risk taxpayer money to prevent the collapse of Lehman Brothers or the distressed sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America. Earlier this year, the government bailed out another investment bank, Bear Stearns, by engineering a sale to JPMorgan Chase that left taxpayers on the hook for up to $29 billion of bad investments by Bear Stearns. The government hoped at the time that this unusual step would both calm markets and lead to a recovery by the financial system. But critics warned at the time that it would only encourage others to seek bailouts, and the eventual costs to the government would be staggering.
The decision to rescue AIG came on the same day that the Fed decided to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2 percent, turning aside hopes by many on Wall Street that the Fed would try to shore up confidence by cutting rates once again.
Fed and Treasury officials initially had turned a cold shoulder to AIG, when company executives pleaded on Sunday night for the Fed to provide a $40 billion bridge loan to stave off a crippling downgrade of its credit ratings as a result of tens of billions of dollars of losses related to insurance investments that have turned sour.
But government officials reluctantly backed away from their tough-minded approach after a failed attempt to line up private financing with help from JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, which told U.S. government officials that they simply could not raise the money given both the general angst in credit markets and the specific fears of problems with AIG.
Another reason that AIG posed systemic risk is that it might have been forced to liquidate real estate and other assets at fire sale prices — a move that could drive property prices lowers and force countless other companies to mark down the value of their own holdings.
The complexity of AIG's business, and the fact that it does business with thousands of companies around the globe, make its survival critical at a time when there is stress throughout the financial system worldwide.
"It's the interconnectedness and the fear of the unknown, meaning the impact of a failure," said Roger Altman, a former Treasury official under President Bill Clinton. "But size is a factor, you can't ignore that. The prospect of world's largest insurer failing, together with the interconnectedness and the uncertainty about the collateral damage – that's why it's scaring people so much."
AIG is a sprawling empire built by Maurice "Hank" Greenberg who acquired hundreds of businesses all over the world until he was ousted amid an accounting scandal in 2005. Many of AIG's subsidiaries wrote insurance of various types. Others made home loans and leased aircraft. The diverse array of companies were more valuable under a single corporate parent like AIG, because business cycles offset other, giving AIG a relatively smooth stream of revenue and income.
After Greenberg's departure, AIG restated its books over a five-year period and instituted conservative new accounting policies. But before the company could really rebuild itself, it became embroiled in the mortgage crisis. Some of its insurance companies ended up with mortgage-backed securities on their books, for example. But AIG's downfall involved a new kind of insurance its financial products unit offered investors in complex debt securities.
Its stock tumbled faster this year as first the debt securities lost value, and then the derivatives-based insurance contracts came under a cloud.
The Fed's extraordinary rescue of AIG underscores how much fear remains about the destructive potential of the complex financial instruments, like credit default swaps, that brought AIG to its knees. The market for such instruments has exploded in recent years, but it is almost entirely unregulated. When AIG began to teeter in the last few days, it became clear that if it defaulted on its commitments under the swaps, it could set off a devastating chain reaction through the financial system.
"We are witnessing a rather unique event in the history of the United States," said Suresh Sundaresan, the Chase Manhattan Bank professor of economics and finance at Columbia University, in New York. He thought the near brush with catastrophe would bring about an acceleration of efforts within the Treasury and the Fed to put safety controls on the use of credit default swaps.
Most of AIG's subsidiaries are considered healthy and stable, and there is little question about who regulates them. AIG's crisis grew primarily out of its financial products unit, which dealt in complex debt securities and credit default swaps.
The swaps are not securities and are not regulated by the SEC And while they perform the same function as an insurance policy they are not insurance in the conventional sense, so insurance regulators do not monitor them either.
AIG's complex debt securities had already lost billions of dollars in value in the months before the crisis began, because their value depends on home values. But in the last two days, the swaps AIG's financial products unit had sold began eating up billions of dollars of AIG's cash and liquid assets. That ultimately paralyzed AIG because it could not find a way to keep up with the fast-growing need to provide cash under the terms of its swap contracts.
This article was reported by Edmund L. Andrews, Michael J. de la Merced and Mary Williams Walsh and written by Andrews.
La economía en USA y el remedio "musical"
Yo escribí un artículo un poco satírico o mejor dicho más o menos "light" en un diario de Corea del Sur, sobre el tema de la economía de USA que pasa por su peor momento; y allí recuerdo a mis lectores que una situación parecida en 1929 hacía que la gente par olvidar sus problemas se refugiaba en la MUSICA que en aquel momento era el JAZZ y especialmente el SWING. A lo mejor a ustedes le agradaría leer el asunto aunque les notifico que está en idioma inglés.
MEDICINA NATURAL
La medicina en base a plantas y en base a adaptógenos se ha puesto de moda...es posible que sea un complemento de la medicina que todos conocemos. El link de arriba nos reseña algunas posibilidades del uso de géneros botánicos como: Urtica Dioica, que sirve para algunas dolencias como sinusitis, rinitis, reumatismo, etc..
domingo, septiembre 14, 2008
BLOG TALK= RADIO
Blog Talk Radio es un enlace interesante pues allí usted puede gravar en esa radio su propio show...
EL BLOG DE PAULO COELHO (Brasilero)
Este BLOG del escritor brasilero Paulo Coelho lo pude conocer en el espacio que se llama ALQUIMIA de la Revista Venezolana TODO EN DOMINGO. En esa revista no. 465 del 14 de septiembre aparece un escrito de Coelho titulado SOBRE DESEOS INCUMPLIDOS, y ya son 8 deseos que el escritor no ha podido lograr...
El Blog de Carolina Jr
Hoy estaba leyendo la revista TODO EN DOMINGO de el diario El Nacional y como yo soy un fanático de los BLOGS me interesé por este Blog que se mencionó en la entrevista que le hicieron a la Hija de CAROLINA HERRERA , o sea: CAROLINA Jr y que aparece en la revista española TELVA.
Esa entrevista fue muy interesante porque esta joven venezolana de 38 años y casada con el Torero español MIGUEL BAEZ (EL LITRI ), se refiere con orgullo del éxito de su madre en el campo de la moda y también de los perfumes, de su padre REINALDO HERRERA y de sus hijos pequeños: OLIMPIA y MIGUEL.
Esta joven aunque es la futura heredera de una empresa multimillonaria (410 millones de dólares) se caracteriza por ser sencilla y sin ningún deseo de grandeza.
sábado, septiembre 13, 2008
jueves, septiembre 11, 2008
The Internet in Intensive Care
The Internet in Intensive Care
Some players want to violate net neutrality
Alfredo Ascanio (askain)
Published 2008-09-11 11:40 (KST)
In the late 1960s, the US Defense Department began the Internet. The network quickly grew to include scientists and researchers across the country and schools, businesses, libraries and individuals around the world.
The Internet consists of thousands of networks connected together that exchange information, but no one organization owns or controls the Internet. There is no government regulation and no one censors the information made available.
Is the Internet exhausted? This is not a naive question, because that is what some experts say. The main lobbyist for AT&T, James Cicconi, recently warned there is the possibility that the Internet will reach the "limit of its physical capacity in 2010."
Cicconi and others argue that this justifies charging a premium to very active users, and does not want new laws to prevent AT&T from doing this.
Service providers are interested in creating the impression that the capacity of the Internet is a scarce and expensive resource. Richard N. Clarke, an executive of AT&T, argued that the cost of unlimited Internet services to some residences may reach US$416 per month and to efficiently manage their networks they need to monitor what their customers are doing and even control overuse or impose surcharges to those users.
With all traffic on the Internet remaining more or less like it was two years ago, the previous claim seems very exaggerated. Traffic grows each year by 35 percent to 50 percent as demonstrated by a study of the Minnesota University and an investigation of Cisco Systems, and Andrew Odlyzko pointed out that there are no signs that there is an explosion in Internet use. But Cicconi has predicted that traffic will grow five times more until the year 2015.
The truth is that technological advances have enabled a massive increase in the capacity of data networks. But with the prices in the fall of fiber optic cables and routers that characterize the Internet, the predicted lack of capacity seems unlikely in the next two years.
If the major providers are exaggerating, their opponents are equally exaggerating, said an emphatic Stephen H. Wildstrom of BusinessWeek.
Consider the following link on this matter: http://www.savetheinternet.com
This blog warns that communications companies want to tax content providers to ensure fast transmission of data.
These companies are said to want favoritism for their own search engines, Internet telephony and video transmissions, but on the condition that their competitors are blocked.
This blog also maintains that: "Big phone and cable companies are trying to eliminate net neutrality, the principle that protects our ability go where we want and do what we choose online."
"More than 1.5 million SavetheInternet.com supporters are fighting to keep the Internet free and open for everyone."
Putting filters on the Internet is another of the wishes of some authoritarian politicians, such as the new Venezuelan Communications Law, in addition to controls in China and Cuba.
The Internet is a powerful means of communication and some players are afraid because the Internet has an impact on their own business interests.
With the emergence of new technology like Web 2.0, there is greater interaction between actors and the possibilities for comment and participation as citizen reporters.
We must remember that freedom of the Internet is integral to an uncolored research environment where everyone is allowed to voice their point of view and ideas without censorship.
At the second international seminar on journalism online in Brazil, guests discussed the use of the Internet in election campaigns, the importance of journalistic generated content and social networks in search of audiences through blogs and felt that the Internet is a means of neutral communication, which is so important.
We will have to pay very close attention to this issue, and in the up-coming presidential election, net neutrality is essential to free speech, equal opportunity and economic innovation.
As noted by one participant at savetheinternet.com: "This fundamental change would end the open Internet as we know it. It would damage my ability to connect with others, share information and participate in our 21st century democracy and economy".
Hong Kong Panorámico
Quieren conocer al Hong Kong. Pues esta foto panorámico les demuestra que la ciudad está unida por 3 puentes y varios enlaces viales.
miércoles, septiembre 10, 2008
Todas las revistas en un solo lugar
Si quiere revisar, Time, People, Fortune,EW,InStyle, CNNMONEY, RealSimple,Business 2.0, Time for kids, Who, MyRecipes, Health, Sunset,SOuthern Accents, Cooking Light, Cottage Living,Southern Living, Coastal Living.
Pero faltaba en la lista la revista para hombres que se llama ESQUIRE y que cumple 75 anos de edad con una edicion especial escrita en tinta electronica.
VER AQUI
Pero faltaba en la lista la revista para hombres que se llama ESQUIRE y que cumple 75 anos de edad con una edicion especial escrita en tinta electronica.
Un video de OBAMA en Digg (VIDEO 2131)
Obama lipstick flap "would be Funny" and stumps, in Virginia on the trail : Obama blasts McCain on lipstickgate enough of the lies!
martes, septiembre 09, 2008
Comunicación política (digital)
En el BLOG dl inglés Darren G Lilleker se puede conocer los adelantos de este asunto tan importante para los políticos modernos
Web 2.0 and Twitter
A new way to communicate
Alfredo Ascanio (askain) Email Article Print Article
Published 2008-09-10 06:29 (KST)
People involved in the digital world have many communication tools available with what is called Web 2.0. One service that sends messages with more impact is Twitter.
Jack Dorsey created this micro-blogging service on July 13, 2006. With Twitter, you can send 140-character-long messages to subscribers explaining what you are doing at any given time.
Many organizations (and even politicians such as Barack Obama) use the tool as a means to promote themselves and keep users (or, in the case of Obama, supporters) informed.
It is a powerful way to penetrate the market of users. For example, Obama holds the record at 70,000 for number of Twitter followers.
The service is not yet as popular as e-mail or Skype, but Twitter use can be ingenious. For example, journalism professor Jay Rosen, of the University of New York, uses Twitter to "bounce" ideas about the U.S. presidential campaigns.
Other new uses include writing novels or short stories by delivering what are called Twillers.
Twitter is very easy to use. Once you register at www.twitter.com, you can send messages through your computer or cell phone. You send the message to Twitter's servers, which in turn forward a copy of the message to your subscribers.
My page with my stories is at twitter.com/askain2. Once you are enrolled in the service you can refer to someone by putting the "at" symbol in from of a user's name: for example, @askain2.
You can also send messages on the Hellotxt.com Web site or use programs such as Twitteroo or Twhirl, which serve as intermediaries.
You can use e-mail to re-send messages or comments to Twitter via twittermail.com, or even an instant messaging service such as MSN.
Installing Fringe on your cell phone lets you communicate with Twitter as well as access other services such as MSN and Skype.
lunes, septiembre 08, 2008
Qué eso de TWITTER ?
Las personas que participan en el mundo digital tienen muchas herramientas de comunicación ahora con lo que se llama la Web 2.0. Uno de los servicios para mandar mensajes de más impacto es Twitter. Este servicio fue creado por Jack Dorsey el 13 de julio del año 2006. Los mensajes que se mandan aceptan sólo 140 caracteres para explicar lo que estamos haciendo en un momento dado.
Muchas organizaciones que desean promocionarse e incluso políticos, como por ejemplo OBAMA, utilizan la herramienta como una manera de hacer campaña y mantener a sus seguidores informados. Es una manera potente de penetrar el mercado de usuarios. Por ejemplo, OBAMA tiene el record de seguidores al usar TWITTER con más de 70.000 personas y el efecto multiplicador de esos contacto puede multiplicarse por 3 si cada seguir comenta lo que ha recibido.
Este servicio de micro-blogging almacena lo comunicado con sus cortos comentarios. Y su uso puede ser ingenioso. Por ejemplo, el profesor Jay Rosen, de la Universidad de Nueva York, se ha dedicado a “rebotar” las ideas sobre la campañas presidencial de USA pero vía Twitter.
El servicio no es tan popular como el e-mail o Skype, pues cuenta apenas con 2,7 millones de usuarios, pero aparecen nuevos usos de Twitter como novelas o cuentos por entrega que se llaman Twiller.
Cómo trabaja Twitter ? : es muy fácil usted ingresa en www.twitter.com/ y allí se registra; luego puede enviar mensajes a través de su computador o su teléfono celular, así el mensaje llega a los servidores de Twitter y luego esos servidores reenvían una copia del mensaje a los seguidores de la persona que lo envío.
Mi página con mis historias es : twitter.com/askain ; cuando ya está usted inscrito en este servicio puede hacer referencia a un usuario anteponiendo el símbolo arroba al nombre del mismo: como @askain.
Después que está inscrito puede enviar mensajes a sus seguidores en el sitio hellotext.com/ o buscar en Google programas como Twittero o Twhirl, que sirven de intermediarios para comunicarse.
También se puede obtener una dirección de correo que re-envíe los mensajes y los comentarios a Twitter como : twittermail.com/ Si usted busca en Google la palabra clave Twittd, entonces puede usted añadir un contaccto a su servicio de mensajería instantánea como msn, yahoo o bien aol. Si instala en el teléfono celular FRING, esto le permite comunicarse con Twitter y acceder a sus cuentas msn, SKype y otros servicios. Quiere más informción sobre este asunto, pues entonces active: enbytes.com/twitter
(Fuente Froilán Fernández El Nacional)
sábado, septiembre 06, 2008
UN POCO DE MUSICA MIENTRAS SE TRABAJA EN LA PC O MAC
El enlace de arriba es un lugar para oír buena música mientras estamos trabando con la computadora u ordenador.
The US Economy, Stagflation, and a Time Bomb
The US Economy, Stagflation, and a Time Bomb
[Analysis] Prof. Alfredo Ascanio examines US recession measures
Published 2008-09-06 14:30 (KST)
According to an analysis by Marcelino Pena, an "advocate for the poor,(
Economists look into four main indicators having a strong effect on the GDP, which are consumption, production, employment and income. The US economy is made up of eighteen different sectors although housing, financial, and US government spending on defense are three economic sectors that are currently having a significant negative impact on the four main indicators and the GDP.
The US government has taken unsuccessful measures to mitigate recession such as an increase of tax refunds to consumers and business owners and the Federal Reserve insuring assets for the Bear Stearns bank. The US economy therefore will be in a recession for the next six months, or two quarters (summer and fall), of the year 2008 and it will worsen unless the three sectors mentioned are resolved.
The Gross Domestic Product in 2007 had been growing at quarterly intervals for the second (3.8 percent) and third (4.9 percent) quarter but a huge drop had occurred in the last quarter (.6 percent). The overall yearly change has been of contraction beginning from 2005, which was at 3.1 percent growth from the previous year to 2.2 percent growth currently at the end of 2007.
Consumption maintained a steady pace in both 2006 and 2007 but sales have steadily been decreasing from 2006 onwards. Beginning in January 2006 retail sales have declined from 8 percent to about 2.5 percent as of January 2008. Real personal consumption expenditures were at a steady pace of about 3 percent in October 2006 to October 2007 and it dramatically declined to about 2 percent as of January 2008.
Production however appears to hold steady but the initial start of 2008 shows very poor performance. The Federal Reserve's industrial production index has been modestly stable in 2006 and has shown anemic growth in 2007, but beginning in 2008 a decline starts to appear. Its index capacity shows a performance of about 80 percent for both 2006 and 2007 but again a drop appears at the onset of 2008. On the ISM index-manufacturing fall to about 47 this indicates a general decline in manufacturing.
Employment numbers at the last quarter of 2007 have likewise been declining significantly while the unemployment rate jumped to 5 percent in December 2007 and increased to about 5.1 percent in March of 2008. Income has also decreased in 2007 compared to the year prior and this decline continued through the first quarter of 2008.
And the impact of the collapse of the housing sector and the big consequences it has had on the financial sector.
The GDP will continue to decrease as all four indicators are going into a decline into the second quarter of 2008. Unless the three sectors discussed are resolved, the economy will spiral downward as each of the four indicators worsens.
Notwithstanding the above would be interesting to recall again the views of the Swedish economist, noble prize, Gunnar Myrdal in his critical essays "Against the Stream".
The economist pointed out that the Keynesian approach, which had gradually become establishment economics, was certainly heavily biased toward seeing the normal tendency of every economy to fall into a depression, characterized by deflation and unemployment. But Swedish economist Knut Wicksell implied then notion of "monetary equilibrium," away from which there could be a cumulative process directed either toward inflation or deflation.
Practically nobody tried seriously to spell out the thesis that inflation has arbitrary, unintended, and therefore undesirable effects on resource allocation and the distribution of income and wealth.
When we now look back at what has actually happened in the postwar era, we have to recognize, besides anticipations, a large number of other factors that spur inflation. They are all of an institutional character and are thus less easily accounted for in simple theoretical models. The change in popular attitude will tend to accelerate an ongoing inflation.
To check an ongoing inflation with a tendency to accelerate is a very different thing from preserving a stable currency. The result will most often be a high and sometimes rising level of unemployment, while prices are continuing to rise, though less rapidly than otherwise. This is what has been called "stagflation", which is either an actual reality or a threat in all countries.
Myrdal back again to discuss the issue of "stagflation" and affirms that from the point of view of economic theory, the course toward "stagflation", caused by the tendency of inflation to accelerate and the political necessity not to let it run wild, is characterized by a conflict between goals: mainly stability of the purchasing power of the currency, foreign exchange balance, and full employment; and ensures that what is now required is a very much more complicated theory that also has to work with a great number of institutional factors, all of which could be safely disregarded seventy-five years ago.
In other words therefore, we cannot be satisfied today (2008) with the simple type of theory we could then agree upon and lay as a basis for rather straightforward policy directives.
In accommodating to the obvious conflict between main goals, the general tendency has been to give little importance to the first goal but rather to accept as normal and natural that prices should go up, though not too rapidly. But relative success in any income policy will depend largely upon mastering institutional factors that have had little place either in the Keynesian or the post-Keynesian approaches.
In short but now, as seventy-five years ago, in order to become instrumental in causing policy change, they would need a minister of finance, a government, a parliament, and behind them a people that were prepared to back such a more exacting policy.
Finally Myrdal reminds us that there is at present great unanimity that the "quality of life" shall be raised, but no group and few individuals are prepared to abstain, in order to reach that goal, from wanting to raise their consumption. They are all involved in a fierce competition and a striving for compensation that makes the space for the quality of life ever narrower.
These same attitudes of people in all social classes are driving forces behind inflation, though at the same time all complain about the rising prices. Neither a higher "quality of life" nor a stable value of currency can be achieved without a rather radical change of people's attitudes.
viernes, septiembre 05, 2008
Un video interesante
Hacer CLICK en el vínculo por favor y gracias. Se trata de una entrevista que se le ha hecho a OBAMA y su candidato para la vicepresidencia en una TV de USA.
miércoles, septiembre 03, 2008
martes, septiembre 02, 2008
Jack Goody y su libro "El Robo de la HIstoria"
Robarse la Historia.
(Un resumen para reseñar el libro por A. Ascanio)
Muchos se han preguntado si en un futuro más o menos próximo Occidente perderá su hegemonía mundial en relación al avance rápido de China. Pero para el británico Jack Goody, uno de los principales antropólogos todavía vivo, la superioridad de occidente, es en gran parte irreal, incluso si miramos hacia el pasado cercano.
Se trata para él, de una ilusión sustentada en un modo distorsionado de ver la historia - un “robo” histórico. Y esto se ve reflejado en su reciente y polémico libro que este profesor emérito, de la Universidad de Cambridge acaba de publicar en Inglaterra.
Goody no deja piedra sobre piedra, al criticar autores clásicos como Karl Marx, Max Weber, Nobert Elias, y Fernand Braudel al mostrar que la democracia, el capitalismo y las libertades e incluso hasta el concepto del amor romántico, son aspectos que están muy lejos de ser invenciones de occidente. Tal engaño no es sino un fruto del “etnocentrismo”, que trata de justificar y también eternizar, en el plan de las ideas, una dominación al nivel de los hechos, construida por los regimenes coloniales y por la Revolución Industrial.
Y lo que quiere decir el autor, con el título se su libro: “El Robo de la Historia”, es que los europeos escribieron la historia a partir de su punto de vista, que parte de las ventajas y lo excepcional de occidente, sin darle mucha atención al resto, especialmente al Asia y al Oriente próximo.
Claro la antropología, ha tratado de hacer algo para modificar el etnocentrismo, pero se comprometió con una distinción entre sociedades tradicionales y sociedades modernas, lo cual endosa una visión occidental y contemporánea de la modernidad.
Recordemos que Claude Lévi-Strauss señaló una vez que la historia era un mito occidental, pero Goody no piensa así, pues otras sociedades han tenido un pasado muy poco estudiado, pero el Occidente al explicar la modernidad y el capitalismo, fue muy negligente en reconocer otras visiones históricas. Por ejemplo siempre se piensa, que la democracia nació en Atenas y en realidad allí apareció una forma particular de democracia, pero la democracia existió primero en Cartago, incluso en algunas ciudades del mediterráneo, en la India, en China y en otras sociedades “tribales”.
Karl Max y Max Weber tuvieron tesis erradas sobre el capitalismo, porque el capitalismo estuvo mucho más diseminado a pesar de la revolución industrial, ya que fue primero un producto de la siembra del algodón y de la explotación de la seda en la India y en China.
Por ejemplo Elias y Braudel han puesto un énfasis excesivo en la contribución europea, en relación a la modernidad, cuando en realidad esto sucedió primero en India y en China. El concepto del capitalismo por ejemplo es más bien un concepto del siglo 19, dice Goody, que debe ser usado con más cuidado y sólo se ha usado para sobrevalorizar la diferencia entre Europa y el Asia. Y en realidad el Asia estuvo siempre más adelantada que Occidente en el arte y en la ciencia, incluso en el hecho mismo de lo que es el amor romántico que no fue una invención Occidental sino es un sentimiento universal que ya existía en el pasado.
Asia, siempre fue parte de la escena global, porque China fue la mayor potencia exportadora del siglo 18, así pues, lo que está sucediendo ahora que se visualiza es el fin del predominio europeo.
domingo, agosto 31, 2008
viernes, agosto 29, 2008
UN BLOG DE POESIA (viene de INDIA)
This blog will (as of 15th September, 2007) feature the best writing from Caferati's forum (currently hosted at Ryze).
Caferati is a forum for writers in English. Most of our membership is Indian or has an India connection, because that's where the group originated. But membership is open to adults anywhere in the world. Some of us are published in the dead-tree sense or earn a living from writing in some way but that is not a condition for membership.
You can find out more about us by visiting our website.
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